tatsuke95

>Whatever Kurgman says, it is good to keep in mind that he is an economist turned partisan-politics hack.

Funny thing,I called MG Seigler a hack, and was attacked. Even PG came out of the word works to say he was "embarrassed" by the comment. Now we are calling Nobel prize winning economists hacks and asses?

The economic illiteracy of this place is what is embarrassing.

>In the mean time most people in Western Europe suffer far less from the economic crisis than most Americans

I was with you until this. Europe is suffering because of their austerity choices. Unemployment reached, like, 25% in Spain, FAR worse than the US. But I agree, "collapse" is ridiculous. Europe will chug along, albeit at a lower rate of growth.

I learned from living through this crisis (my first as an adult) that people over react like crazy in these situations. So much doomspeak, still.

Which is exactly what the hypothesis says. Assume that others are using arbitrage to reduce your opportunities, leaving you with an efficient market.

Free floating has nothing to do with whether or not I can buy Rupees on the open market. If I choose to buy a ton, it could cause problems with their central bank who will have to produce supply in order to maintain the exchange peg.

My point is simply that it's pretty easy buy international currencies on the forex. IMHO easier than buying bit coins.

If nobody is using Foursquare then there is no location data to sell.

>but I want to say $21MM is the pool that the exchange has to puke to the "plaintiffs".

This is actually back in the news. And the value that the banks are looking to recover is closer to $500MM.

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/business/UBS_unimpressed_with_Fa...

>"However, BTC China is still trading at above $275! That's the beauty of bitcoin, it isn't restricted to just one region in the world."

This is a flaw, not a benefit. I want to know what the value of my BTC are. Not what they are here, vs China, vs Canada, vs Australia...

>"Buying and selling an Indian Rupee for example is quite heavily restricted. "

What do you mean, "quite heavily restricted"? It's far harder for me to buy BTC, especially with these ongoing issues, than it is to buy Rupees in my forex account.

>"service designed to help accounting and bookkeeping service providers manage the payroll for multiple companies."

The last time ZenPayroll made the front page, I (and others) were skeptical about the ability to usurp some of the bigger players. Targeting second party payroll providers is a superb idea. In fact, as someone who dabbled in low-key book keeping services to help me pay for school, something like this would have been wonderful. This is how business becomes more efficient. Waiting on Canada...

>"The grants generally come with a lot of reporting and strings attached, and generally require very large investments to be worthwhile. We can get R&D tax concessions"

I have a bit of experience with SRED in Ontario, and quite a bit with the Alberta Foundation for the Arts.

Grants are nicer for you (me), but tax credits are doing it right as far as the government is concerned. Canada wants you to create employment. If you have a business that is generating revenue and creating jobs, they'll "give back" money that equates to, sometimes, paying wages at 50 cents on the dollar.

Tax credits are an economically efficient way to distribute government funds.

It's the merchant's duty to ensure that the person who is charging the purchase owns the credit card, which is why they'll often ask for ID along with the CC.

A stolen CC is useless if no merchant accepts it.

>"Wow, this company went through YC?"

And was actively defended and supported the last time a thread came up questioning the issues that Coinbase was having:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5427985

Turns out those questions were justified. They've outted people selling bath salts and god knows what else.

So much for anonymity. Between this, MtGox, Instawallet, do we still believe Bitcoin is taking over the world?

I can only assume the prospects get worse with the movement towards online classes and learning. How many 101 classes can't be taught nearly exclusively online? That will reduce the demand for PhDs and supply of positions further.

>"I don't know what will."

The major exchange getting DDOS'd, a popular online wallet service provider getting hacked, and a plunge in the price of Bitcoins perhaps.

All of this days after the discussion around here was about BitCoins usurping major currencies. I don't get it.

Just like houses in 2007, or Apple stock last year, or Tulips in 1637...

Bitcoins are one asset among many, and just as prone to booms and busts.

>"The assumption that inflation is automatically better is 'common knowledge' based on theories of economics developed that classify savings as bad, and spending as good, based on the assumption that deflation will cause consumption to be postponed, but which hand-waves away the problem of inflation bringing forward consumption with the trite statement of 'in the long run we are all dead'."

That's only part of the argument.

Another part is that wages also must decrease with deflation (wages are an input price). And that's very difficult to pull off in a modern economy, and leads to unemployment. We are seeing that right now.

The fact of the matter is, we should be indifferent to either inflation or deflation, as long as we can see the changes coming and adjust quickly enough. In reality, we can't. Hence an ever-increasing money supply (to coincide with an ever-increasing demand for money) is the best bet.

>"based on theories of economics developed that classify savings as bad"

I've never encountered that argument.

>My point is that deflation isn't the bogeyman

Look at this thread. Look at Seeking Alpha. Look at Reddit. You think people are over-reacting to deflation? People everywhere are hyperventilating over out of control inflation, when, in fact, our current problems are associated with a deflationary event ($3.5TT wiped from the collective financial sector sheets).

You can start with anything by Bernanke related to the subject, both writings and speeches.

>""Having your net worth halved" happens in the inflation scenario. Deflation increases your net worth."

Interesting. We've been in a positive inflation environment since I've been born, and my net worth has increased exponentially.

Deflation will increase the purchasing power of your money due to the fall in prices, but decrease the value of assets you own priced in that currency. Something people seem to be forgetting around here are that wages also fall during deflation, and that results in lower purchasing power and unemployment. Your "work" isn't worth as much anymore. You get paid less. Good deal!

What happened when the housing bubble collapsed and there was massive deflation in home prices? Did those people get wealthier? Did it become easier for other people to spend their dollars on homes at the new low prices? The answer is no and no.

>A curious retelling of history.

By you, perhaps.

Economic crisis, couldn't pay the bills, so they inflated the currency. Just like I said. Are you really going to argue that there was no war or aftermath, social upheaval or other crisis (like, say, debilitating war reparations) that led to hyperinflation? Crisis comes first.

So often Wiemar Germany is trotted out as the example of what can happen when the government prints excessively. "It can happen to you! Wheel-barrows full of money to buy bread!" The reality, the country and its economy was in shambles. Not because of inflation.

Your turn: point to an economy that was happily chugging along, and hyperinflation came out of nowhere and took it down.

>"I hear this argument a lot, but no nation that we know of has ever collapsed because of deflation, right?"

And which have collapsed from inflation? None, directly. Hyperinflation (and deflation) is an effect of an economy collapsing. Not a cause.

From Wiki: "Hyperinflation is often associated with wars, their aftermath, sociopolitical upheavals, or other crises that make it difficult for the government to tax the population, as a sudden and sharp decrease in tax revenue coupled with a strong effort to maintain the status quo can be a direct trigger of hyperinflation."

Note "decrease in tax revenue". Economic crisis > deflation > country can't pay the bills > hyper-inflates currency.

Why would you compare gold to one mediocre and one bad investment? It seems that few people here understand opportunity costs.

>"In fact we see deflation in specific markets like housing which helps to clear out the bad decisions and mistakes and set the base for future expansion."

Periods of asset deflation after over-investment/economic distortions may act as a balance, but it isn't "good". Having your net worth halved is crippling.

>"The simple fact is that no economy and social order has ever imploded due to deflation"

No economy implodes due to deflation or inflation alone. Countries like Germany or Zimbabwe had production capacity collapse. That led to printing money (to stave off deflation), which in turn led to hyperinflation. Too much money chasing too few goods, remember? In order to have too few goods, the country's production has to go into the toilet.

Saying deflation isn't bad flies in the face of many of the greatest economic minds we know, with tons of research and theory to back it up.

And the spread between bid/ask in the real world is large. Unless you own "paper" metals, you aren't exchanging them for the rates you see on the ticker.

Bonds...

Everyone can't hoard bit coins, that's the point. Unless you are mining them, which is a small portion of the market I assume, you are buying them from another person. Ie someone else has decided to sell.

I get bit coin, I think it's interesting and useful as an alternative currency. But any hope that it is going to upend USD in any meaningful way is wasted. Dollars are far, far ahead in value, convenience and redeemability. And I don't see that changing anytime soon- at least not soon enough to get in on the speculation.

I think you seriously underestimate the demand and use of dollars.

Increasing value of currency promotes hoarding, when in fact, bit coin should be promoting spending. If everyone's intention is to buy and hold bit coins,they are useless as currency and become a speculative asset.

SV mentality.

Dwolla is too good for my 75k? Good for them. Companies like BofA, Walmart, GE, and literally thousands of other companies would love to take that money and put it to use. Only in the upside down world of SV would you have to be somebody to have your investment accepted.

As far as the prediction market, it would be useless with play money. Skin in the game is what drives efficiency.

According to Damodaran's corporate finance class, 60% of acquisitions fail in some for or another.

>"programmers swear slightly more than average and some are socially awkward"

I agree, but it will be interesting to watch this trend shift over time. There was a time in the not-so-distant past when if you were a computer guy, you were a "geek". Computers were for "geeks", which meant at least one of your parents was a "geek" to involve you with computers as a child. And, generally, "geeks" may be awkward socially, but are pretty normal, easy-going people (obviously generalizing here, but I also consider myself part of this group). You can see this represented in the pop-culture of the past 30 years.

But that stigma is definitely disappearing, if it hasn't disappeared already. What will the place look like when the would-be Alpha-males of the financial world (which has been gutted as a career) go to the next best place to make a killing, where the money flows like water? Is it already happening?

How would you like to wake up one day and discover that your picture is all over the internet along with sexist/misogynistic accusations, and for all intents and purposes, you have no idea what you did wrong? Then you go to work and get canned.

This was a pretty scary scene she perpetrated, at least to me. You can really do damage to someone with a mere tweet. Over a dumb, overheard joke? Come on. Judging by the public sentiment, it'll probably be okay for this guy. He's been incredibly gracious publicly. But had he gone home and hung himself, what story would we be talking about?