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tempestn

14,690 karma · joined August 2, 2012

Hey, I'm Nathan, founder of autotempest.com and searchtempest.com. Feel free to get in touch. Email is my first name at either of those domains.
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tempestn··on I genuinely don't understand why some people are still bullish about LLMs
Yeah, it won't do your taxes for you, but it can sure help you do them yourself. Probably won't put you out of your job either, but it might help you accomplish more. Of course, one result of people accomplishing more in less time is that you need fewer people to do the same amount of work - so some jobs could be lost. But it's also possible that for the most part instead, more will be accomplished overall.
tempestn··on I genuinely don't understand why some people are still bullish about LLMs
Far from just programming too. They're useful for so many things. I use it for quickly coming up with shell scripts (or even complex piped commands (or if I'm being honest even simple commands since it's easier than skimming the man page)). But I also use it to bounce ideas off of when negotiating contracts. Or to give me a spoiler-free reminder of a plot point I'd forgotten in a book or TV series. Or to explain legal or taxation issues (which I of course verify, but it points me in the right direction). Or any number of other things.

As the parent says, while far from perfect, they're an incredible aid in so many areas. When used well, they help you produce not just faster but also better results. The only trick really is that you need to treat it as a (very knowledgeable but overconfident) collaborator rather than an oracle.

tempestn··on First-of-its-kind trial enables paralysed man to stand via stem cell injection
There are companies now offering stem cell culturing and storage from adult samples. Something I've been meaning to look into actually.
tempestn··on U.S. national-security leaders included me in a group chat
You find it implausible that someone highly placed in the government would have the editor of a major news publication in their contacts?
tempestn··on Samsung CEO Jong-hee Han has died
Maybe it was a deep cut pun: diamond pendant?
tempestn··on Magical Instant Bullets
Yes, of course the shock wave is conical; I just highlighted above and below because they're the only directions likely to influence how quickly the bullet falls.

I don't think the effect would generate lift per se, assuming a horizontally fired bullet (since, again, it's symmetrical). What it does seem to me though is that it would effectively increase the density of air local to the bullet (in all directions except for behind), and so it would essentially be falling through denser air than it would be if just dropped from stationary. That would result in a small but non-zero increase in the time taken to fall the same distance.

Again though, that's just what intuition tells me; I certainly haven't tried to model it or anything.

tempestn··on Magical Instant Bullets
Do bullets actually fall at exactly the same speed if dropped or fired horizontally? In a vacuum, obviously they do. But my intuition says there would be some impact on the vertical air resistance from travelling 500m/s in the horizontal direction. As the bullet pushes through the air, the air pressure above and below it is increased (you can actually see that in the photo in the post). So wouldn't it effectively be falling through denser air than in the dropped case? Also, of course, it would be falling in a horizontal orientation, whereas the dropped bullet would probably realign itself to vertical.

Anyway, none of that invalidates the broader point, and the effects would be comparatively tiny even if present. Just found it interesting to consider.

tempestn··on How fast the days are getting longer (2023)
I'd guess Canada given latitude and the fact that both formats were given.
tempestn··on Crew-9 Returns to Earth
The point is not the definition of the word stranded. They were up there for much longer than they expected or planned. That involved some amount of hardship. (Missing their families for months, if nothing else.) Bringing them back was not an appropriate opportunity to make it about how bad Trump thinks Biden is.
tempestn··on Crew-9 Returns to Earth
When rescuing astronauts stranded on the ISS, one would expect. I can't imagine any other president using that as an opportunity to explicitly bash his predecessor. Can you?
tempestn··on Age and cognitive skills: Use it or lose it
I'd travel the world, taking in diverse centers of culture, history, and nature. I'd try to learn new languages. I'd do more track days, karting, and Ultimate. I'd buy a shell and try to get back into rowing. I'd play more computer games. I'd play ping-pong, foosball, and board games with my kids. I'd coach kids' sports. I'd go to more plays and concerts. Even movies. I'd volunteer.

Of course I wouldn't do ALL of that, since even without work there are only so many hours in the day. But I certainly wouldn't want for things to do!

tempestn··on Age and cognitive skills: Use it or lose it
Maybe someday they will. But the current run of LLMs are fantastic at regurgitating and synthesizing existing knowledge, and getting better all the time, but not so good at coming up with new ideas. As long as you keep to the realm of what is known, they can seem incredibly intelligent, but as soon as you cross that boundary there's a clear change - often to just meaningless bullshit. So, I personally don't think we're going to be outsourcing idea generation to LLMs (or AI in general) anytime soon. Though to be fair, I'm only about 75% confident in that, and even so, it doesn't mean they won't be hugely transformative anyway.
tempestn··on Zelensky leaves White House after angry meeting
Sure, but how do you get agreement on that?
tempestn··on Zelensky leaves White House after angry meeting
Unfortunately short of a revolution, there is no realistic way to pass any kind of meaningful constitutional amendment in the US. And it's hard to imagine that fact changing, which makes me pessimistic for the long term future of the country.
tempestn··on Zelensky leaves White House after angry meeting
What does this even mean? Yes, the Iraq war was terrible. That doesn't make Trump any better.
tempestn··on Zelensky leaves White House after angry meeting
I don't agree with your conclusions, but I feel you're arguing in good faith and therefore don't deserve down votes.

I'm not sure America actually has left a lot of money on the table. I see America having benefitted a lot from the post cold war world order (as indeed have most of its allies), and my take is that the kind of extraction of value that Trump has been attempting is at very best only beneficial in the short term.

But again, I appreciate when people with different viewpoints can discuss them civilly, so I gave you an upvote.

tempestn··on Ask for no, don't ask for yes (2022)
I think it's more a matter of people being overworked, so they just skim and answer the first thing that pops out. Or in some cases it may even be strategic, like in a negotiation, ignoring the parts that aren't beneficial to answer, while still responding.
tempestn··on Ask for no, don't ask for yes (2022)
One thing I've eventually managed to learn after failing at it many, many times is that in the vast majority of cases an email can only say one thing; if you try to ask multiple questions, or give multiple pieces of information, best case people will actually read one of them. Worst case it'll overwhelm and they'll ignore the whole thing.

It's obviously different if you know the recipient and that they're able to handle more, but my default assumption is that people will read the first 1-3 sentences of an email, so I do my best to keep it to that, and if I have more to say I'll make a note to myself for once they reply.

tempestn··on Ask for no, don't ask for yes (2022)
You can even do this kind of thing without going as far as stating that you'll take action unless overridden. It can be as simple as rephrasing a question from a "yes" to a "no", like "Does this work for you?" -> "Do you have any objections?" Even when the request is logically equivalent, people often find it easier to say "no" than "yes".
tempestn··on Broken legs and ankles heal better if you walk on them within weeks
No, reducing inflammation can help manage pain, but beyond that is not beneficial (actually is detrimental) to healing. https://drmirkin.com/fitness/why-ice-delays-recovery.html
tempestn··on Carbon capture more costly than switching to renewables, researchers find
The Project Vesta approach looks promising and at least theoretically cost effective: https://www.vesta.earth/science#Introduction
tempestn··on Surnames from nicknames nobody has any more
You could also pass the father's name to boys and the mother's name to girls. Or all children get the same combined name based on the father's father's name and the mother's mother's name. So both matrilineal and patrilineal lines would be propagated.
tempestn··on Farewell potholes? UK team invents self-healing road surface
Static (resisting sliding) vs rolling friction.
tempestn··on Farewell potholes? UK team invents self-healing road surface
Claims extension of surface lifespan by 30%. Cool if true, though far from an end to potholes.
tempestn··on Did UCLA Just Cure Baldness?
Thick hair looks great on older men. See some of these for instance: https://onpointfresh.com/the-best-hairstyles-for-older-men/
tempestn··on Did UCLA Just Cure Baldness?
Unless most procreation was done before it developed.
tempestn··on The young, inexperienced engineers aiding DOGE
It basically comes down to ignorance. Most people don't have the time, inclination, and/or capacity to evaluate political platforms or the competence of individual politicians. They just decide based on heuristics or "vibes". Trump seems confident and strong. Harris doesn't seem to stand for anything much besides the status quo. They don't like that there was inflation under Biden, and Trump is the opposite of Biden. They don't necessarily like Trump's attitude, but figure they don't have to like him as long as he gets the job done. That's roughly the level of thinking that's happening, in the cases where there's much thinking at all, and people aren't just voting the way their friends, family, and neighbors all vote.

Basically this is a fundamental flaw of democracy, that you leave the most important decision in the hands of the median citizen, who has no particular aptitude for making it. Of course, other systems of government have their own flaws. Like Churchill said, democracy's the worst form of government, except for all the others. (Though I would argue that the particular structure of the American democratic system is especially flawed.)

tempestn··on Proposed bill to make it a crime to download DeepSeek in the US
If there's a law against downloading or possessing it, and they're serious about enforcing it, they absolutely can stop you. Yes you could still do it, and maybe even avoid detection, but would you, if getting caught meant prison time?
tempestn··on Avoid ISP Routers (2024)
One thing worth noting is that you don't need the ethernet ports to be on the router itself. You can always add a switch for more ports. 2.5G switches are pretty cheap now, and if connected to a 10G port on your router should provide plenty of bandwidth. (Could even get a 10G switch, but that'd likely be overkill.)
tempestn··on Avoid ISP Routers (2024)
Once in bridge mode it's no longer acting as a router, so it should mostly be fine. The firewall on your actual router will be present between the modem/internet and your machines.
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