tersh··on Room temperature, ambient pressure superconductivity – this time for real?The median prediction for whether this gets independently confirmed is sitting at 25%: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18090/room-temp-supercon...
tersh··on MetaculusYeah, Metaculus trains, identifies, and hires "Metaculus Pro Forecasters" for particular projects: https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#what-are-pros
tersh··on MetaculusForecasting in tournaments — head-to-head on the same set of questions — is the true test of forecasting ability.
tersh··on The future of AI according to thousands of forecastersThe Metaculus prediction weights predictors by how accurate they've been.