419 karma · joined August 28, 2020
I'm out here unironically showing you data on the CDC's website: https://www.cdc.gov/hiv/risk/estimates/riskbehaviors.html. Anal intercourse is far likelier (18x the risk from vaginal interourse per encounter) to result in HIV transmission from an infected partner. Internal tearing is likelier and hence contact of other fluids with one's blood stream.
In Africa, HIV is especially prevalent in South Africa, which happens to have a practice called "dry sex" [1] which also leads to similar internal tearing for the receptive partner.
Behavior that involves having these sorts of risky sexual encounters with multiple partners only compounds the likelihood that one will contract HIV. Not all groups engage in these behaviors with equal likelihood.
This is the same effect in play for SARS-CoV-2. It also persists in animals. It's a matter of time and chance before it reemerges.
That can happen, and has happened throughout history. It tends to be a bloody ordeal though.
"To fully grasp and plan for climate impacts under any scenario, researchers and policymakers must look well beyond the 2100 benchmark. Unless CO2 emissions drop significantly, global warming by 2500 will make the Amazon barren, the American Midwest tropical, and India too hot to live in, according to a team of international scientists.
'We need to envision the Earth our children and grandchildren may face, and what we can do now to make it just and liveable for them,' says Christopher Lyon, a Postdoctoral Researcher under the supervision of Professor Elena Bennett at McGill University."
An example of this is calling to reduce policing, which probably would have the biggest (and very negative) impact in high crime areas. I believe gun sales increased rapidly starting last summer.
[1] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/remember-...
Back to "Our data show that anti-disease vaccines that do not prevent transmission can create conditions that promote the emergence of pathogen strains that cause more severe disease in unvaccinated hosts." and whether that implies that "for anyone who did not get the vaccine to get it." This sounds like a strategy that hinges on everyone on Earth getting vaccines and frequent-enough booster shots. What if that's unachievable though? The logistics for that would be unprecedented. What are the consequences of trying but failing to do it?
[1] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.03.21261496v...