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throwaway4666

170 karma · joined June 18, 2020

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throwaway4666··on GPT-3
I think gwern's point (whose opinion on deep learning I respect a lot more than his on genetics) is that GPT-3 is nearly not the end of the story. OpenAI released a GPT pretty much every year and each one is a spectacular improvement on the previous one with no sign of that trend ever stopping. If size is really what matters at all, there's no telling what GPT-4 or GPT-5 might be capable of, let alone a giant GPT run by state-sized actors.
throwaway4666··on GPT-3
>Like the genomics revolution where a few far-sighted seers extrapolated that the necessary n for GWASes would increase exponentially & deliver powerful PGSes soon, while sober experts wrung their hands over “missing heritability” & the miraculous complexity of biology & scoff about how such n requirements proved GWAS was a failed paradigm, the future arrived at first slowly and then quickly. Yet, here we are: all honor to the fanatics, and shame and humiliation to the critics!

No. Actual geneticists are still pretty skeptical about GWASes because they tell us almost nothing about, well, the genetics behind complex traits. It's all good and well running GWASes for literally anything (see: twitter.com/sbotgwa or that dude who got a pretty good PGS from correlating a country's GDP with the genotypes of Arabidopsis thaliana available in that country) but that's virtually useless for serious research or if you want to know how genes work.

Actually figuring out to what extent a trait is genetically determined usually involves much more complex methods (e.g. mendelian randomization) and knock-out experiments on animal models, which is all terribly expensive and tedious. But that's how actual genetics works, not waving a magic wand of +15% heritability.

throwaway4666··on A high-coverage Neandertal genome from Chagyrskaya Cave
Well if the paper made it to Cell at least two other people in the field are convinced.
throwaway4666··on A high-coverage Neandertal genome from Chagyrskaya Cave
>They were different species and any argument to the contrary rests on adherence to a rigid definition of species not even accepted by all biologists, let alone anthropologists.

There is no single definition of species. People who study bacteria have their own, so do people who study plants, birds, insects, and so on. Sure, Neanderthals and Homo sapiens sapiens, who coexisted and interbred in the same ecosystems, are different species. Whatever that means.

>Are we supposed to believe it was a big egalitarian paradise?

Lol what does that have to do with what I said?

throwaway4666··on A high-coverage Neandertal genome from Chagyrskaya Cave
At least 17Mbp (vs. ~50Mbp in Eurasians)
throwaway4666··on Pseudonymity as a Trivial Concession to Genius
There's no evidence that any of the things mentioned came from SneerClub. As far as I know the original doxxing came from some alt-right dude with mental issues on tumblr who thought he was shadowbanned and posted in response to a SA reblog on tumblr 'Care to comment, Scott Alexander [Real Surname], working at [Actual clinic] in [Actual location]?' to which SA replied with 'No one's shadowbanned, you're banned for doxxing me though'. This is all relatively easy to look up and check.

SneerClub was always ever about venting about rationalists when the dumb speculation about evopsych and the IQ of black people went out of hand, and people who have attempted to doxx Scott on there have been banned. (Doxxing people at all is against the rules of reddit anyway.) Yes, it's a circlejerk subreddit, yes it's petty etc. But it's not the evil den of terrorists rationalists think it is.

throwaway4666··on Exploration of Generative Art
Obligatory inconvergent plug, one of the titans of generative art: https://inconvergent.net/
throwaway4666··on A high-coverage Neandertal genome from Chagyrskaya Cave
The distinction between Neanderthals, Denisovans and Homo sapiens sapiens is more or less a legacy from a time where we didn't know how fuzzy the definition of 'species' was. For all intents and purposes all three are the same species of full-fledged humans and there's scant evidence humans from either denomination would even treat each other differently.
throwaway4666··on A high-coverage Neandertal genome from Chagyrskaya Cave
>Analyses of their genomes showed that they contributed genetically to present-day people outside sub-Saharan Africa

This is wrong. Recent analyses (https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30059-3) have shown Neanderthals have also contributed to Sub-Saharan DNA. Maybe the authors weren't aware of the latest findings at the time of writing and no one ever thought of correcting that part.

throwaway4666··on You Can Now Buy Bitcoin at CVS,7-Eleven, Rite-Aid
...at an 8% conversion rate, plus a $4.50 fee. Not really appealing unless you're moving large quantities of drugs.
throwaway4666··on Pseudonymity as a Trivial Concession to Genius
>In a year of historic ironies, here’s another one: that it was the decent, reasonable, and well-meaning Cade Metz, rather than any of the SneerClubbers

Okay so what's with the obsession with a niche subreddit whose sole purpose is to dunk on rationalists/SSCers who talk too often about the IQ of black people. I mean it's not like Aaronson is himself an HBD blogger. I kind of like Aaronson but his online anxiety is really getting the better of his judgement.

throwaway4666··on I Am Deleting the Blog
Ah, I get it. In a way, the Pioneer Fund is more of a charity.
throwaway4666··on I Am Deleting the Blog
I'm sorry, am I supposed to emphathize with a multimillionaire best-seller author who, instead of enjoying her wealth in some yacht somewhere (or whatever it is rich people do), decided to spend her free time riling up some trans people on twitter?
throwaway4666··on I Am Deleting the Blog
We live in a prison because some folks are doing a historical reckoning about Columbus' past exactions?
throwaway4666··on I Am Deleting the Blog
What do these controversial opinions have to do with the NYT writing a piece about Scott's early warnings about covid, and Scott's assessment that it would damage his relationship with his patients? Are you arguing that warning everyone ahead about the virus was controversial?
throwaway4666··on I Am Deleting the Blog
Yeah whenever people on here allude to 'what you can't say' it usually boils down to the same few very specific ideas, none of which are particularly secret, original or new. Hell, if you're a tenured professor, billionaire or anyone in a position of power whining about 'what you can't say' I find it hard to take you seriously.
throwaway4666··on I Am Deleting the Blog
Okay so you're saying the NYT is silencing Scott by threatening to publish a hit piece about his early warning about covid? And if he didn't post that, his relationship with his patients wouldn't have been jeopardized by having his real name associated to his personal blog and he'd have kept it up? I'm not trying to strawman here, I'm genuinely attempting to connect the dots.
throwaway4666··on I Am Deleting the Blog
What's your point? 'Think before you speak' and 'speech has consequences' isn't exactly a new notion. Under a throwaway account on here I just write whatever pops up in my mind, when I co-author a paper under my and my colleague's real life names that's going to be read and cited, everyone triple checks everything so that as few innacurate or dumb things get published. How is this new or shocking in any way?
throwaway4666··on I Am Deleting the Blog
I don't get your point. People are going to roast Scott because he got things right about covid? What does this have to do with his relationship with his patients?
throwaway4666··on I Am Deleting the Blog
Okay but what does this have to do with the thread? Scott isn't being silenced, he's shutting down his blog out of concern that his relationship with his patients may be jeopardized if they could look him up on the NYT. (Whether he's justified I'm not qualified to say as I'm not a psychiatrist.) What's the hidden truth, controversial opinion or super secret insight at stake here?
throwaway4666··on Preliminary Theory of the In-Group Contrarian
Lots of words and vagueness without much of a point (other than someone really didn't like being called a grifter on twitter dot com, I guess?). After reading the entire piece I have no idea what the author is really alluding to, and they have to be alluding to something because it wouldn't sound eerily specific otherwise. Why not just state your point with the example at hand instead of uselessly theorizing? Seriously, this is what happens when you take online too seriously - using grandiloquent words like orthodoxy, skandalon, attention economy or citing Girard and Durkheim as though this weren't about petty spats no one outside Weird Twitter has ever heard about. If your reputation and livelihood doesn't depend on your being extremely online, why would you care about this stuff? If it does, and you actually profit from talking about this stuff and playing contrarian, how can you object to being called a grifter?
throwaway4666··on The World in 2036: Nassim Taleb looks at what will break, and what won't (2010)
Sure, and how does this not describe out-of-field tech workers and PhD havers pontificating over a bunch of questions where their job and/or reputation isn't on the line? I see plenty of people on here doing it in my field, and a cursory look at my post history will easily show I do the same in others (and with a throwaway account at that). It's just a thing we do, it seems ;-) nothing wrong with that as long as we're aware it's more of a self-indulgence than any kind of intellectual posturing. In that Taleb is useful as he keeps us honest, even if he's an asshole about it.
throwaway4666··on The World in 2036: Nassim Taleb looks at what will break, and what won't (2010)
HN doesn't like Taleb because he dunks on a demographic particularly prevalent on here: well-educated laymen, or the less charitable 'intellectuals yet idiots'. I'd be lying if I didn't also feel targeted by him but I think it is also a core hacker value to grow thick skin and learn instead of getting offended and whining.

That, and of course he also wrote a take-down of IQ (and psychology in general) that pissed off a lot of IQ-fetishists on here.

He also made a bunch of money, knows a lot of advanced and ultrarigorous (read: French-educated) math and reads in a bunch of languages so even though he's a colossal asshole no one can exactly dismiss him as a hack, so he just kind of sticks there like an annoying wart in the face of "the discourse" that just won't go away. Personally, and in case it wasn't obvious, I sort of like him.

Edit: I forgot to mention he sometimes blocks people who give the wrong answer to the integral solving problems he posts on Twitter. I don't expect you to understand but I really respect that.

throwaway4666··on Saying thanks: testing a new Reactions feature
The main issue I've had with SO, which while anecdotal seems to reflect the sentiment of a lot of people on here whenever the subject is brought up, is that it's infected with the YX problem.

Now you guys probably know the XY problem (asking the wrong question X to when you really want to solve the problem Y). The YX problem, on the other hand, goes like this:

User: "Hi, how do I do Y?"

SO: "Why do you want to do Y?"

User: "Because I want to do [use case]"

SO: "Are you sure you don't want to do X instead?"

User: "No I don't, I have this constraint and this use case so I'm pretty sure this isn't about X and I really want to do Y."

SO: "Are you sure this isn't a duplicate of [some question involving X]?"

User: "No it's not, the question while similar doesn't have the same constraint or usecase and I have searched SO for a while for questions that specifically involved these and didn't find any so I really need to do Y."

SO: "Wow, I can't possibly imagine why you, for a use case you've examined for a while and which I have been made aware of five minutes ago, could possibly want to do Y while not doing X. I don't know and I rest my case. A solution to Y probably doesn't exist anyway."

Answerer: "Hi to do Y you have to do this [hacky snippet]" (answer accepted)

User: "Cool, thanks!"

SO: "This is bad practice and I don't condone it. It shouldn't be upvoted or the accepted answer."

--------

Of course this is the optimistic scenario, where the question does get eventually answered.

throwaway4666··on Sugary drink tax models show health gains, cost reductions, but vary by design
There are 'heroin alternatives' that people switch to in order to treat their addiction - mostly substances that act on the same receptors but aren't as addictive. Whether they are all cheap, legal, well-known and/or easily accessible is an entire story altogether.
throwaway4666··on Sugary drink tax models show health gains, cost reductions, but vary by design
My (admittedly anecdotal) experience with taxing an addictive/harmful thing "for people's own good" is that it just results in said people cutting their budget to afford the tax, making their life worse overall. This ranges from heroin addicts somehow always finding the daily $$$ to fund their dose, to people mildly grumbling about the price of cigarettes yet buying them anyway.

On the other hand, forbidding a thing altogether seems to have disastrously ineffective results too (see: the prohibition, war on drugs, etc.).

Maybe a better solution is to simply forbid companies from putting addictive things in their products to sell them, but keep the addictive thing legal, e.g. don't put too much sugar in the soda you make (so people won't expect too much sugar as a matter of course) but let people add sugar to the soda if they really want to. In other words, regulate companies' practices but not individuals'.

throwaway4666··on The Problem with America’s Lab Mice [video]
Seeing how identical individuals from literally the same cell line in an exactly identical and controlled environment sometimes give different results I don't think you can ever achieve 'perfect controls' anyway. The solution is to delve deep into what things actually do (in the case of people I know, that involves a lot of live single-cell imaging and suchlike) but that's expensive.
throwaway4666··on The Problem with America’s Lab Mice [video]
Disclaimer: haven't seen the video (I never click any video link, sorry), but I did read the text links provided in the thread. That said: one of the big reason to use mice as animal models is that we've obtained a bunch of pure-bred, homozygous lines for a bunch of different genes, and that process is expensive and above all lengthy. Mice have both (a) a relatively short generation time and (b) been experimented on for a very long time. This makes them particularly suited for experiments involving knocked-out genes and suchlike because you have near-perfect controls at your disposal.

Now just because we have a bunch of pure-bred homozygous mice doesn't mean mice behave the same way as humans with respect to e.g. metabolic pathways, immune system etc. It's just that we often don't have better models.

throwaway4666··on An LSD Trip “Off-Switch” May Be Coming Soon
Yeah marketing something widely known to make it palatable and "provide liability" isn't new. See e.g. Scott Alexander's piece on literal fish oil: https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/06/15/fish-now-by-prescripti...
throwaway4666··on An LSD Trip “Off-Switch” May Be Coming Soon
Won't load for me either. No archive caching either :/
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