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thu2111

811 karma · joined November 14, 2019

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thu2111··on French set to replace English as EU’s ‘working language’
Marine le Pen doesn't give a shit what language the EU uses, that claim is a distraction. Her and others like her think France needs to care about the EU a whole lot less, and the EU should be much less important in France, so she's really the last kind of person who would expend political capital on such a thing.

BTW the EU sucks at peace and settling disputes. If it was good at the whole "peace in Europe" thing it wouldn't be constantly rolling boulders down the hill at the UK and Switzerland but rather, find ways to work amicably with them as productively as possible. It doesn't of course, it just threatens them and tries to force them into the EU's power structures regardless of popularity or the creation of resentment, which is exactly why the "ultra-right" as you put it (lol) is constantly gaining ground. Someone has to care what voters think, after all.

thu2111··on The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins
Please do. Perhaps after a few more years of articles like the one this thread is originally about, you'll look at it in a new light. The sort of "scientists" who inhabit our universities have no monopoly on the truth, as the world is slowly coming to accept.
thu2111··on DeepMind says reinforcement learning is ‘enough’ to reach general AI
No not really. Deep Mind is almost all cutting edge agent-oriented reinforcement learning, hence the nature of the claim they're making. The impact on Google's business from AI has come almost exclusively from other kinds of ML, or that's at least how it appears from the outside. E.g. replacing Google Translate with neural translation doesn't seem to involve RL and certainly doesn't involve agents playing video games.

Deep Mind is best understood as the following bet: if we can train an AI that can learn from "its environment" and do the sort of things a human would do in that situation, then we have achieved AGI and from that ... business ... will follow. Hence their focus on video games as a training environment.

This sounds intuitive but is actually a very agent-centric viewpoint and most AI doesn't resemble this type of thing at all. Most AI deployed so far doesn't have anything resembling an environment, doesn't have any kind of nexus of agency and doesn't need to actively make decisions that then feed back to its own learning, only make probabilistic predictions. And in fact you often don't want an ML model to train on the outcomes of its own decisions.

thu2111··on The myth of the driverless tube train
I think the idea is that attendants are much easier to train and thus replace quickly than drivers are. All they have to do normally is push a button saying "it's safe", more or less. Perhaps very rarely they'd need to go into the tunnels to reach a stuck train, but that's exceptionally rare. In a squeeze people could be trained to do the normal tasks in a day or less.

DLR safety - aren't you agreeing with me? The DLR is not perfectly safe but in reality people accept it. Nobody is clamouring in London for the DLR to be shut down on the grounds that it's a death trap. London society has made its peace with the level of safety the DLR provides. Would more safety be nice, of course. Is it actually a hard requirement that blocks other upgrade projects? That's not at all clear and the argument you're making here is the same circular one the article makes - automation upgrades require safety upgrades because the regulator (+other undefined people) say they require safety upgrades, and the regulator says it requires safety upgrades because automation requires safety upgrades. But the link between these things seems rather brittle.

thu2111··on Donald Trump's 'communications' platform permanently taken offline
But their response was to ban him, which means the response consistent with the rules applied to other people would have yielded no ban.
thu2111··on The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins
I've looked at a lot of COVID related research papers over the last year, which is exactly why I don't take them seriously anymore. The quality is extremely low and they routinely do things that aren't scientifically valid without any obvious repercussions for the authors.

Fortunately, again, one more time. You do not need scientific studies to see the truth here. The goal of mask mandates was to change case curves. That was their only justification. In a large number of places mask mandates were added or removed without the case graphs changing. Therefore, they do not work. Everything beyond that is irrelevant and frequently confused, e.g. studies on masks are not relevant to the question of mask mandates.

thu2111··on TC Energy scraps Keystone XL pipeline project after Biden revokes key permit
Surely the many efforts being made to reduce dependence on foreign fossil fuels all fall into the bucket of nuclear, fracking and small amounts of windmills/solar, but those can't make up the difference any time soon due to intermittency alone. So you seem to be saying you're against all the ways of reducing dependence on foreign fuels but are sure that dependency will be reduced.
thu2111··on The myth of the driverless tube train
It's a reasonable sounding argument but I don't find it totally convincing.

Firstly, a big deal is made about the need for PEDs. The justification given is vague - essentially that the regulator would require them, because it's now "known" that PEDs are required, and the DLR doesn't have them because, well, really it should but we don't care enough to actually upgrade it. But new stuff must.

This looks like a case of creeping safetyism. If PEDs are really required for the acceptably safe operation of a railway then clearly both the DLR and LU must be considered unsafe, because the number of passenger-on-track or passenger-in-door situations that only a driver can solve seems very small indeed. In fact it's surely the case that platform attendants are better placed to observe these problems as they can easily look along the entire length of even a busy platform, whereas a driver must rely on a mirror. Saying automation "requires" PEDs is a bold statement given the successful and apparently safe operation of the DLR for decades, yet no evidence is provided beyond the opinion of the ORR, which as a regulator is hardly unbiased - they have zero incentive to make automation happen and every incentive not to.

The arguments about strikes also looks superficially reasonable, but I'm not sure it holds on closer inspection. Drivers have a lot of strike power because there are a lot of them and they require a lot of training, so they are impossible to replace as a bloc. Presumably a well automated railway would require only a much smaller number of people in the control room, and those people would require less training, as the software will be carefully checking their inputs and doing the bulk of the work. So if they did decide to strike then you could probably have teams in reserve or call up the manufacturers of the equipment and ask them to send over some of the engineers who built it, to temporarily operate the equipment and train up a new team of control room staff. The striking power would surely be much lower.

Even for physical maintenance staff, yes they can strike, but they can't immediately paralyze a live railway like drivers can. There's a limited amount of time for which a railway can operate without regular maintenance, and if the equipment is already in good condition, it seems likely that the railway can outlast the strikers. Also a lot of physical maintenance is not especially complex to train people on, so alternate workers could be found more easily.

The main reasons the Tube isn't being automated are clearly not that it's some sort of insurmountable challenge, at least not according to this article, but rather than automation has been conflated with general wide-reaching safety and simplification upgrades, based on a dubious argument that drivers are much safer for passengers than any automated system can be. I'm not at all sure that's true.

thu2111··on The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins
A poll by a news website that relies on self-diagnoses? Really? I was expecting at least a scientific study. Come on, you could try harder than that - it's easy to find peer reviewed published scientific studies that conclude masks "work" yet which are wrong.

Mask mandate doesn't mean people actually wore them.

Well, people do wear them, that's been studied quite extensively. Compliance >95% in the studies I've seen. If mask mandates don't affect the data even with the very high levels of compliance seen during COVID times then they will never work, because compliance won't be higher in future.

But even if "not enough" people wore them or didn't wear them 24/7 or whatever, that still means mask mandates failed. People were forced to wear masks a whole lot, in any crowded space, and they had no impact on the data at all. Affecting the data was the only justification for mask mandates, so their failure to do so is fatal to the concept - why they failed might make for an interesting debate, but given how tiny viruses are, how much airflow can occur around masks and that most transmission happens inside homes, care homes and hospitals where mask wearing 24/7 is not practical, their failure is no big shock.

And honestly, you should be ashamed to link to these type of websites. They don't hold up to any kind of scrutiny.

Look in the mirror, my friend. I've linked to examples of actual case curves, which is what matters. Mask mandates aren't intended to affect opinion polls on obscure news sites, they're meant to affect whole countries. They do not. Therefore they have failed.

thu2111··on Once a bastion of free speech, the ACLU faces an identity crisis
Your point about Brexit is totally wrong. Support for it hasn't changed much since before the vote: it still has majority support, and nobody ever claimed you could "eat" sovereignty but seeing as nobody in the UK is starving due to Brexit that's just a totally irrelevant soundbite isn't it?

Nothing the ACLU ever did blew up in their face. People haven't "started dying" because of the rights they defended. Instead they just got taken over by people who are immersed in your worldview and willing to parasitize and destroy any organization they can get their hands on in a belief that people should be ruled by hard-left "experts", who will make them "happy", even if they don't seem to realize it or agree.

thu2111··on The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins
But "peer reviewed evidence" is frequently either wrong, or irrelevant (e.g. lab studies without external validity), or both. The whole discussion here is that scientists have been engaged in political manipulations since the start.

Mask mandates don't work. If they did then the removal of masks would have caused a noticeable spike in cases in Texas, to pick just one example of many. The complete uselessness of masks has been "debunked" in the same vein the lab leak theory was "debunked" - a bunch of people asserting that scientists cannot be wrong, even as they say things that are clearly and very obviously wrong. Anyone can see the truth just by looking at government data sets for a while. It is ridiculous that people still aren't learning to think for themselves, even after all that's happened.

thu2111··on The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins
The internet is full of them but my favourite source is just the raw data. Look at case graphs for different regions. Look at the dates when mask mandates were added and removed. There should be very sharp, inorganic looking drops and spikes but there are none.

Many people have put together the charts with arrows indicating the dates when things changed, for example

https://rationalground.com/mask-charts/

That site is old now but there have been many since.

You can also find plenty of studies saying the same of course, but you can also find studies saying the opposite - academic research has failed on this topic. Fortunately the question in simple, so you don't need any research papers to see the truth: mask mandates do not work because if they worked, we could see it in the graphs, and we can't.

thu2111··on .NET Open Source: What Happens When the Free Lunch Ends?
That doesn't make sense. It's never cheaper to rewrite a product from scratch yourself unless the pricing is truly messed up. People justify writing and giving away open source code in all sorts of ways but not that it's cheaper than buying.
thu2111··on Google removes its head of diversity after 2007 blog post surfaces
The dictionary is the authority for what words mean. If someone genuinely wants to "explain" power dynamics they would do so in ways designed to communicate clearly and illuminate. If they want to manipulate and confuse they would try to redefine the meaning of common words to mean something totally different and then accuse people who speak English properly of misusing words.

By the way, sociology is nonsense, surely everyone knows that by now. Their papers are usually pseudo scientific.

thu2111··on The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins
No, this is the problem. Fauci and others in public health have confused everyone with their lies so badly now they're being defended.

There was never a mask crisis. Masks don't work, they have never worked, this had been known for a long time partially because the world went through this exact process with the Spanish flu. And scientists knew that which is why they originally said masks don't work.

This all fell apart quickly because they are collectivists at heart and were being lobbied by political forces that wanted something they could tell everyone to do. The WHO actually admitted this to the bbc! Masks seemed like a good fit, so the scientists promptly jumped on board and started saying masks worked. Problem: how to explain their prior position? So they came up with this double layered lie: we said masks didn't work because it was a noble lie to protect healthcare workers.

But it was never the case. All the documents before March 2020 are consistent on this, including the new Fauci emails.

thu2111··on The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins
I don't think anyone is claiming anyone wanted it to escape, only that it was very likely, they know it was likely, that's why it had been banned but Fauci overrode the ban then started constantly lying about it and many other things for career and financial reasons.

You make comparison to tech workers. Sure, if someone makes a genuine honest mistake then you can argue they should be retained as they won't make that mistake again. But that does require deep and total honesty. If a tech worker caused an outage and then manipulated management for a year to cover up their involvement, there would be no such leniency.

thu2111··on The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins
And I certainly don't see the conflict of interest - what was Fauci gaining? His continued role?

Yes. Obviously you don't put an arsonist in charge of fighting fires, so if this information had come out early last year then he would have lost not only his role much sooner, but also his social status and career. If what's coming out now came out last year, Trump's replacement of him with Scott Atlas would have been more widely supported (maybe), and Biden may not have dared to put him back in his post.

That would have been a huge financial hit. Fauci does very well out of his position. "Very well" might even be an understatement. He is the highest paid federal employee [1], earning more in 2019 alone than the US President. Despite this fact, he has deflected questions about conflicts of interest by laughing it off and saying he has a "government salary", creating the impression he is paid far less than he really is.

Fauci charges between $50,000 and $100,000 per hour for motivational speeches [2].

Despite being theoretically in charge of a crisis situation in which nobody has time to ask how it started, Fauci has found time to write a book called, "Expect the Unexpected: Ten Lessons on Truth, Service, and the Way Forward". He has also appeared on TV more than 300 times [3].

This is not a man who is too busy to investigate basic questions that may have direct relevance to developing treatments for the virus. And given that knowing where it came from would be of immense scientific value yet he has every incentive to cover it up, he is also not a man who should be running things.

[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamandrzejewski/2021/01/25/dr-...

[2] https://leadingmotivationalspeakers.com/speakers/anthony-fau...

[3] https://www.aier.org/article/fauci-has-chalked-up-300-media-...

thu2111··on The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins
According to Wade's article it's actually even murkier than that. Only Fauci or one other person could have actually overridden the ban to keep the money flowing and prevent oversight of it:

The moratorium, referred to officially as a “pause,” specifically barred funding any gain-of-function research that increased the pathogenicity of the flu, MERS or SARS viruses. It defined gain-of-function very simply and broadly as “research that improves the ability of a pathogen to cause disease.”

But then a footnote on p.2 of the moratorium document states that “An exception from the research pause may be obtained if the head of the USG funding agency determines that the research is urgently necessary to protect the public health or national security.”

This seemed to mean that either the director of the NIAID, Dr. Anthony Fauci, or the director of the NIH, Dr. Francis Collins, or maybe both, would have invoked the exemption in order to keep the money flowing to Dr. Shi’s gain-of-function research, and later to avoid notifying the Federal reporting system of her research.

thu2111··on YouTube-dl can no longer download age-restricted videos
That's an interesting take on language. If you said many cats were blue, given that cats are never blue I'd certainly feel you were justified in saying many were if 10% of them were.

I tend to interpret many as a relative term, meaning "a high number relative to what you're probably expecting". The dictionary is no help here as it just defines many as "a lot", but that in turn is also a relative term.

I think if you want to argue with this point, a better tack would be to argue that the British PM is underpaid and EU staff are what "normal" compensation should look like. Quibbling over whether 10% of them being paid more qualifies as a lot isn't that worthwhile.

thu2111··on Donald Trump's 'communications' platform permanently taken offline
I just quoted from the article. Are you seeing a different web page to me? The 5th paragraph says:

The Oversight Board said the initial decision to permanently suspend Mr Trump was "indeterminate and standardless", and that the correct response should be "consistent with the rules that are applied to other users of its platform".

And the first paragraph says:

Donald Trump's ban from Facebook and Instagram has been upheld by Facebook's Oversight Board.

thu2111··on Google removes its head of diversity after 2007 blog post surfaces
Anyone confused by my post should use a dictionary to refresh their memory of what this very basic and simple word means, not some random academic papers.
thu2111··on Google removes its head of diversity after 2007 blog post surfaces
They're clearly not the same because Damore said nothing anywhere near as offensive as this. He said, paraphrased, that there are fewer women in tech than men because they are less interested in it. He backed it up with a whole pile of research showing that this obviously true claim is true. And he pointed out that women are biologically different to men, so maybe that is part of the explanation, and even if it is, there's nothing wrong with not wanting to be a programmer (which is in a sense a tautology, it's a way of saying "women are different because they're women").

In particular he bent over backwards to carefully spell out that he was not claiming women are worse at programming than men, perhaps because he knew the dangerous liars he was picking a fight with would also lie about his words - which they did, immediately, across the entire media and with vigor. Damore also tried to keep these views inside the company.

Now this guy made very explicitly offensive comments broadcast to the whole world on his blog, which claims that all Jewish people are the same, that by implication they are morally inferior to people whose hearts are not filled with war, and that they should feel guilt and shame about this.

No comparison, indeed.

thu2111··on Google removes its head of diversity after 2007 blog post surfaces
But this is all very consistent. Most people noticed many years ago that the people who most loudly claim to be fighting racism are always huge racists themselves. This is so common, and so obvious, the only reason it's attracting attention at all is because somewhat unusually it's Jews who are the target today, instead of white men. If the same quote about war had been made with white men instead of Jews nobody at Google would have cared. And arguably they don't care at all because the guy is not fired, just re-assigned, which tells you everything you need to know about what that company has become.

And it's not really surprising that the target are Jews. In America this doesn't seem to be the case so much, but in Europe when the left engage in racism, it's always against their own countryfolk or Jews. Diversity programs, however they started, long ago became a left wing movement.

Frankly it's a lot more shocking when someone working in diversity does not turn out to be racist or sexist. Those are very rare people indeed. Oddly, I vaguely recalled the Google head of diversity making some sensible comments some years ago, but I don't recognize this name. It seems he's actually just "a" head of diversity, not "the" head.

thu2111··on Donald Trump's 'communications' platform permanently taken offline
However, I don’t think Trump’s ban has much to do with that. He simply broke the rules.

Facebook's oversight board disagrees. They ruled that Trump's ban was "indeterminate and standardless", and that the correct response should be "consistent with the rules that are applied to other users of its platform".

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-56985583

It's quite obvious he broke no actual rules, but it's interesting that Facebook's oversight board is actually willing to say so. Of course, they nonetheless 'allowed' Facebook to continue the ban.

thu2111··on YouTube-dl can no longer download age-restricted videos
How is 4000 civil servants / 10% of the entire workforce earning more than the PM not many of them? What threshold of the workforce would need such compensation to be considered many, in your view?
thu2111··on Covid deaths plunge after 75% of town's adults vaccinated
Seasonality isn't really understood at all by epidemiologists, so it's probably best to confine discussion of it to the places where it's clearly visible, which is mostly the northern hemisphere indeed.
thu2111··on YouTube-dl can no longer download age-restricted videos
He means the discussion of the article. The change is due to new EU legislation, links are provided elsewhere in the (whole) thread.
thu2111··on YouTube-dl can no longer download age-restricted videos
It's definitely not in Google's interest to require an action as awkward and engagement-killing as ID verification. They work very hard to not take such drastic steps.

Such requirements are being driven by governments who don't care at all about user convenience, only extending their control over people whilst blaming the private sector for "making" them do it.

thu2111··on YouTube-dl can no longer download age-restricted videos
Well maybe. But the YouTube "protocol" keeps changing. The problems yt-dl has are related to trying to keep up with the protocol's enormous surface area and, as we can see here, sometimes changes have to be made quickly in response to legislation.
thu2111··on YouTube-dl can no longer download age-restricted videos
You can already restrict YouTube on any sort of computing device you might give kids. Parental controls are built in to Android and iOS. There's no need for every website to duplicate that. However, there's a great "need" for the EU to constantly generate massive floods of legislation because they have ~30,000 civil servants they "need" to keep employed, many of whom earn more than the British Prime Minister.

And unfortunately the EU loves coming up with reasons to fine tech firms because they managed to ensure there are none in Europe itself, so it looks a lot like free money, to an organization that's desperate for it (huge budget hole now UK has left + fines go straight into the EU spending pot).

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