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tooltalk

1,297 karma · joined April 1, 2017

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tooltalk··on BYD builds fastest car
> Allowing in Chinese EVs into markets where there are important domestic auto manufacturers will be very bad for those domestic manufacturers.

I want a level playing field/market competition. Allowing China's illegal subsidies and anti-market tactics to dominate the global EV industry is very dangerous, which is why they are already countervailed in many developed countries.

Subsidies aren't necessarily bad, but it's become China's choice of blunt instrument to price out/drive out foreign competition.

tooltalk··on BYD builds fastest car
Tesla's US subsidies mainly came from a ATVM loan from the DOE back in 2008/2009, repaid back in 2013 -- Ford ($6B) was the largest recipient. The DOE had/have other auto/EV/battery subsidies, equally available to foreign domestic producers/recipients, which is what the global subsidies standard requires. No special, or "specific" subsidy favoring Tesla over others (or local companies over foreign competitors). America's consumer purchase EV subsidies prior to the IRA were also neutral without preference to any "specific" company, industry or country of origin.

China's NEV subsidies were/are illegal and Chinese EVs are countervailed in many developed countries (eg, the EU, Turkiye, Canada, US) because they are misapplied in three key ways.

i. forced tech transfer: no subsidies or market access unless hybrid/BEV/batteries tech transfer to China since 2011; violates China's 2001 Accession Protocal (see Section 7, Non-Tariff Measures); litigated before the WTO by the EU (WT/DS549)

ii, local content requirement: no subsidies or license/permit to operate in China unless automakers' EVs used Chinese batteries made by Chinese local "champions" only, namely CATL, since 2015; all foreign battery producers effectively banned and all EV producers forced to switch to local battery suppliers; violates Article 3(a) Prohibition of the Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (SCM) Agreement

iii, export subsidies: subsidies given to MIC exporters to under price/under cut foreign competitors in markets abroad; EU Commission's counter measures: 2024/1866 and 2024/2754.

Tesla China benefited significantly from China's NEV subsidies and is likewise also countervailed in the EU, at the import tariff rate of 7+%. Tesla no longer imports EV from China in the US/Canada.

tooltalk··on Fire destroys S. Korean government's cloud storage system, no backups available
Some foolishly believed that the twin towers were invincible after the 1993 WTC bombing.

Before 9/11, most DR (disaster recovery) sites were in Jersey City, NJ just across the river from their main offices in WFC or WTC, or roughly 3-5 miles away. After 9/11, the financial industry adopted a 50+ miles rule.

tooltalk··on Apple says it will add 20k jobs, spend $500B, produce AI servers in US
It's mostly about cost and market access to China.

Most smartphone supply-chain for Samsung and Apple exist outside China -- primarily in Japan (camera, sensors), South Korea (DRAM/NAND, OLED), and the US (various ICs fabbed at TSMC in Taiwan). There are quite a few reliable estimates/teardowns showing that these three countries account for close to about 90% of iPhone BOM (bill of materials). That's one reason why Samsung's smartphone unit was able to pull out of China without much disruption back in 2019 -- ie, low dependence on China.

I feel that Apple has pushed this misleading narrative a bit too long to defend their massive China outsourcing.

tooltalk··on Why was there a wall near runway at S Korea plane crash airport?
Occam's razor: the wall is most probably the cause of the unnecessary explosion that killed 179 people. The airport built ILS, or localizer, on unnecessarily over-engineered concrete structure where there shouldn't have been any obstruction. The ILS are supposed to be built on level surface or "frangile" structure so they can be easily destroyed when there is an overrun. There are reportedly at least 4 other airports with such obstructions in South Korea -- at Yeosu, it's 4 meters high (also concrete foundation)[1].

<strikethrough>There was a similar accident in Hiroshima, Japan several years ago: Airbus A320-200 skidded past the end of the runway at similar speed and struck down ILS. It eventually stopped -- damaged the airplane but no fatality.</strikethrough>

1. Localizer at Yeosu Airport, similar to Muan's, raises safety concerns, 2025.01.02 (23:58), KBS News.

tooltalk··on BYD is automaker with the most R&D staff
Again, no need to pretend that China's EV/battery domination comes from China's market competitiveness or technical advancement.
tooltalk··on BYD is automaker with the most R&D staff
Sure, sometimes you fight evil with evil. I've also already cited multiple sources on how China delayed everyone's transition to EVs and now as a result both the US/EU in particular are now having to build their own supply-chain from ground up to counter China's weaponization of clean energy initiatives.

No need to pretend Papa Xi's mercantilism is all about original innovation, working 996, or Qian Xuesen's vision.

tooltalk··on BYD is automaker with the most R&D staff
Sure, that's because everything China did since 2015 was just putting up more barriers to delay green energy development or EV transition for everyone else. China hates it when other do the same to promote their local clean energy development as it inteferes with their quest for domination.

Yep, exactly. It's not "sounds like" -- China's protectionist, mercantilist trades practices have no place in this side of the water. The world is really not too interested in China's weaponization of clean energy or resources.

tooltalk··on BYD is automaker with the most R&D staff
Sure, everyone wants to be next China and is busy "emulating" them. Biden passed the IRA in 2022 which requires local critical material sourcing/manufacturing and excludes any materials, parts sourced from China, inspired by China's anticompetitive practices since 2015. This practice is commonly called local content requirement (aka, LCA) in international trade lingo, and one of the two subsidies prohibitions under the WTO SCM Agreement.

Guess who's whining? China filed a WTO complaint (WT/DS623) against the US IRA earlier this year, accusing the US of violating what China has violated past 10 years.

The EU is also working on theirs, called CRMA approved earlier this year, but nothing that would match Papa Xi's blatant protectionism; or China's annual $270B fossile fuel subsidies to support cheap energy or overcapacity; or China's insatiable appetite for coals and carbon emission.

tooltalk··on BYD is automaker with the most R&D staff
China is quite anti-competitive. BYD/CATL's success, which comes from their battery market dominance, is a largely outcome of the CCP's protectionism past ~10 years.
tooltalk··on BYD is automaker with the most R&D staff
China is quite anti-competitive. BYD/CATL's success is a largely outcome of the CCP's protectionism past ~10 years.
tooltalk··on BYD is automaker with the most R&D staff
China is quite anti-competitive. BYD/CATL's success is a largely outcome of the CCP's protectionism.
tooltalk··on BYD is automaker with the most R&D staff
I think we should stop pretending that Chinese EV/battery companies can compete on their own without Papa Xi's big wallet or baton to keep out foreign competition.
tooltalk··on BYD is automaker with the most R&D staff
It's not just mere "subsidies," there is also blatant protectionism. CEOs of incumbents car makers have been warning against the Chinese gov't unsavory anti-market practices to protect their local battery companies and achieve market dominance past 10 years, such as:

1. Power Play: How China-Owned Volvo Avoids Beijing’s Battery Rules Car maker is allowed to use high-end foreign technology, while rivals are squeezed into buying local, Trefor Moss, May 17, 2018, the Wall Street Journal

  ... China requires auto makers to use batteries from one of its approved suppliers if they want to be cleared to mass-produce electric cars and plug-in hybrids and to qualify for subsidies. These suppliers are all Chinese, so such global leaders as South Korea’s LG Chem Ltd and Japan’s Panasonic Corp. are excluded.

  ... Foreign batteries aren’t officially banned in China, but auto executives say that since 2016 they have been warned by government officials that they must use Chinese batteries in their China-built cars, or face repercussions.  That has forced them to spend millions of dollars to redesign cars to work with inferior Chinese batteries, they say.

  ... “We want to comply, and we have to comply,” said one executive with a foreign car maker. “There’s no other option.”

2. Why a Chinese Company Dominates Electric Car Batteries, Beijing gave CATL lavish subsidies, a captive market of buyers and soft regulatory treatment, helping it to control a crucial technology of the future. Keith Bradsher and Michael Forsythe, Dec. 22, 2021, The NYTimes

3. The Key to Electric Cars Is Batteries. One Chinese Firm Dominates the Industry. Beijing built the world’s largest EV market, then pressured foreign car makers to use its batteries, Trefor Moss, Nov. 3, 2019, WSJ

  ... China is by far the biggest EV market, and to boost its standing in the fast-growing industry, China began pressuring foreign auto makers to use locally-made batteries

  ... Auto makers weren’t pleased, but they fell in line. During a visit to CATL headquarters in 2017, three Daimler AG executives displayed their irritation shortly after the meeting started, recalled Jiang Lingfeng, then a CATL project manager who prepared a technical briefing for the visitors. One Daimler executive cut off his briefing, said Mr. Jiang. “We’re not interested,” the executive said, according to Mr. Jiang. “The only reason we’re here is that we have no choice, so let’s just talk about the price.”

  ... Still, auto makers bridled at CATL’s dominance, according to Mr. Tsao, the former supply-chain manager there. CATL’s batteries also cost 25% more than those of leading rivals because the company was still learning to mass-produce cost-effectively, he said. “The price is high, and the service is slow,” he said, summing up CATL’s proposition to auto maker clients.

  ... “What the government did was a good thing for China,” said Mr. Jiang, the former CATL project manager. “Without its restrictions, I don’t think CATL would ever have been successful.”
Let's not forget that the EU also followed up with a WTO complaint against China for their NEV regulation that forced tech transfer (see WT/DS549) in 2018, and waited over 6 years to take a countervailing measure (2024/1866) against prohibited subsidies practices.
tooltalk··on BYD is automaker with the most R&D staff
ironic comment, considering that the Chinese gov't fossile fuel subsidies's is by far the largest in the world -- or $270+B vs. $3B US (see the IMF's 2023 Fossile Fuel Subsidies Report).

All that to support cheap energy and overcapacity.

tooltalk··on BYD is automaker with the most R&D staff
We also know that most Chinese battery companies would have been crushed by foreign competitors from Japan and South Korea, had the Chinese gov't effectively not banned them and forced their customers to switch to local Chinese battery makers since 2015.
tooltalk··on BYD is automaker with the most R&D staff
The Chicken Tax was initially a response to Europe's protectionist measure against American poultry imports. I see how it eventually turned into a protectionist racket, but most never seem to look at the source of the problem.

I feel that the same way about EVs, or EV batteries in particular.

tooltalk··on BYD is automaker with the most R&D staff
The problem here isn't that we don't want to transition to clean green energy, but that China wants to monopolize that, not by market competition, but by mercantilist practices.
tooltalk··on BYD is automaker with the most R&D staff
Usually no problem with subsidies as long as it is local (eg, GM bailout).

China's gov't subsidies to promote export in markets abroad or undercut foreign competitors are generally prohibited.(see Article 3 Prohitibion of the WTO's Subsidies and Countervailing Measures Agreement).

tooltalk··on BYD is automaker with the most R&D staff
That's not exactly how it happened. Sony of Japan was the first to successfully commercialize lithium ion batteries, most commonly used in EVs, in the early 1990's; quickly followed by South Korea -- most or 3/4 of all active lithium ion battery patents come from either Japan or South Korea.

China was very late to the EV battery game and LFP was more or less their only choice, which was deemed inferior for EVs due to its low energy density, but whose core patents were all about to expire -- ie, great for exports. They are effectively patent-free now.

In short, the Chinese gov't essentially forced all key EV battery industry leaders to waive their IPR to access China's local market; then effectively banned them and forced their customers, EV OEMs, to switch to local Chinese battery suppliers, who were still learning to make batteries under MIIT's Regulation on Power Standard since 2015/2016 (announced/enforced). That's essentially how China came to corner the battery supply-chain and scale up/commoditize their production at the expensive of everyone else past 10 years.

tooltalk··on BYD is automaker with the most R&D staff
Not sure if that's the best way to describe China's business model/practice. WRT, EV batteries in particular[1]:

  ... China requires auto makers to use batteries from one of its approved suppliers if they want to be cleared to mass-produce electric cars and plug-in hybrids and to qualify for subsidies. These suppliers are all Chinese, so such global leaders as South Korea’s LG Chem Ltd and Japan’s Panasonic Corp. are excluded.

  ... Foreign batteries aren’t officially banned in China, but auto executives say that since 2016 they have been warned by government officials that they must use Chinese batteries in their China-built cars, or face repercussions.  That has forced them to spend millions of dollars to redesign cars to work with inferior Chinese batteries, they say.

  ... “We want to comply, and we have to comply,” said one executive with a foreign car maker. “There’s no other option.”
1. Power Play: How China-Owned Volvo Avoids Beijing’s Battery Rules Car maker is allowed to use high-end foreign technology, while rivals are squeezed into buying local, Trefor Moss, May 17, 2018, the Wall Street Journal

I don't know any specifics of Ford and CATL, but it was always the Chinese gov't driving their growth either by protectionism or undercutting foreign competitors with subsidies which is why Chinese EVs are being pushed back by the trade regulators in EU/US/Turkiye/France/etc..

I have no reason to believe that it was motivated China's altruism to pass the best price to their American customers.

tooltalk··on BYD is automaker with the most R&D staff
Not sure where you are getting the subsidy figure. China's EV subsidies have been around since 2009, extended and renewed every 2-4 years. The last consumer "direct purchase subsidies" ended in Dec, 2022, but was extended as tax credit for another 4 years for an estimate cost of $72+B in June of 2023. That's in addition to China's provisional ICE-to-EV conversion subsidy of ~20,000 yuan to prop up slowing EV sales, started in May, 2024 and ends December 31 2024, today.

China's cost competitiveness comes from China's protectionism and subsidies past decade. The EU Commission has already conducted an antisubsidy investigation against Chinese EV imports and imposed countervailing measures earlier this year (see EU's Implementation of Regulation 2024/1866) based on prohibited export subsidies given to Chinese EV makers (or MIC EVs).

tooltalk··on BYD launches sodium-ion grid-scale BESS product
Yep, Tesla uses Panasonic's NCA-90, but Tesla now makes 4680 in-house, but without all that fancy dry processed cathodes that promises up to ~20% reduction in cost.

LG should be mass-producing 4680's by now (and dry battery electrode by 2027). Panasonic is still working on 4680. Maybe soon, but dunno when.

tooltalk··on BYD launches sodium-ion grid-scale BESS product
LG's 65/115GWh (online/planned) plant in Poland is the biggest battery factory in EU.

But I believe the US surpassed the EU this year with the GM/LG's Ultium 2 factory. I have no doubt in my mind that the US battery manufacturing will become more competitive as they scale up and commoditize: GM for instance reported a 45% decline in battery cell cost YoY in 3Q 2023; followed by a sequential quarterly drop of $30/cell from the 1st 2024. With AMPC ($35/KWh), GM's per cell costs drops close to $80/KWh and is expected to fall further -- below $70/KWh in a couple of years.

  Panasonic (NV): 40 GWh
  Tesla (4680)  : 9+?? GWh 
  GM/LG Ultium 1: 45 GWh (2022)
  GM/LG Ultium 2: 45 GWh (2024)
  SK Georgia    : 21 GWh (2021)
tooltalk··on BYD added a Tesla-worth of production capacity over the past 3 months
I think it's just the cost of doing business in China. A lot of American CEOs including Elon Musk, Tim Apple have to sing and dance to the CCP's piping. And China is still the biggest EV market with 2/3 of the global EV market share.
tooltalk··on BYD added a Tesla-worth of production capacity over the past 3 months
Biden already imposed 100% tariff on EVs and 25% on EV batteries.

Tesla was importing CATL's LFP prior to the tariff, but recently dropped it altogether after the tariff became effective.

tooltalk··on BYD added a Tesla-worth of production capacity over the past 3 months

  ... added production capacity of nearly 200,000 vehicles per month from August to October of this year. The capacity addition of nearly 2.4 million vehicles over the course of a year is greater than Tesla’s total annualized global production (469,796 units in the 3rd quarter multiplied by four equals 1,879,184 units).
I'm a bit confused.. from Aug to Oct, or 3 month x 200,000 = 600,000, not 2.4M in additional capacity. What am I missing here? Perhaps Larry meant "total capacity?"
tooltalk··on BYD added a Tesla-worth of production capacity over the past 3 months
What EV markets outside the US/EU? Australia and maybe Thailand? Otherwise, it's difficult to find infrastructure that supports EVs elsewhere.

BYD is already in Japan, but it's quite limited. China has shadow-banned Korean automaker Hyundai/Kia since 2017 (THAAD) and battery makers LG, Samsung, SK since 2016 -- not sure if China would be warmly received there.

tooltalk··on Why did the U.S. miss the battery revolution?
Tesla is not a battery maker. It does some in-house production, eg, 4680, but most of their batteries come from either Panasonic, LG, CATL, or BYD (and L&F just for cathodes).
tooltalk··on Why did the U.S. miss the battery revolution?
China's EV market is about 60% of the global EV market. And no foreign battery competitors have been able to participate in China's local EV market (ie, shadow-ban) since 2015 and all EV OEMs, local or foreign, are required to use locally made batteries by local companies only. China's discriminatory and anticompetitive EV policies are the key reasons for the US IRA in 2022 and the EU's recent antisubsidy tariff against Chinese EV imports.

About 40% of Tesla's battery supply comes from those two -- the other 60% from Panasonic and LG. LFP is most widely deployed in China, but that is not why China's "edging out" Tesla -- LFP's market share outside China is not that big. LFP is just a low-end batteries for entry-level, low-range EVs.

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