HNHacker News
TopNewBestAskShowJobs

treebeard901

853 karma · joined October 16, 2015

submissionscomments
treebeard901··on GOG's new owner can't stand Windows either: 'It's such poor-quality software '
Interesting story behind FCKGW-RHQQ2-YXRKT-8TG6W-2B7Q8 ... Probably the most well known key.
treebeard901··on Ford F-150 Lightning outsold the Cybertruck and was then canceled for poor sales
It seems China has won the race for EV dominance in battery technology and manufacturing. Probably not much the U.S. can do to catch up. From the insane oil needs of the U.S. Military to the gasoline needed for a functioning economy and transportation, China will be light years ahead in every category which will have huge implications for U.S. National Security.
treebeard901··on Statement from Jerome Powell
The entire reason the markets give the response wanted after a rate cut is because of the decision being made independently of politics. A politically enforced rate cut may still boost the economy in the short term, over the longer term the interest rate mechanism will not be trusted. This will defeat the entire purpose for very limited gain.

Behind all of this is another fact that the conditions around the U.S. reserve currency are changing quickly. This is happening with just interest payments on existing debt being the largest cost every year.

No matter who controls the Government, soon they will all be forced to cut spending in a large way and be forced to try to inflate themselves out of this coming debt crisis.

treebeard901··on The US dollar and national security
Settling trade between two countries is not a difficult problem to solve. It was a mistake to ever base any national security on it.
treebeard901··on Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?
> Maduro will be overthrown in Venezuela and is all being used as leverage by the U.S. in its negotiations with China and Russia
treebeard901··on Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?
> China will begin blockading the islands around Taiwan, leading to a blockade of Taiwan itself. Odds are there will be a peaceful reunification with China instead of a war.

It's not even 2026 and this one has already started to happen...

treebeard901··on No, it's not a battleship
A submarine automated drone production and deployment platform would be as damaging to a Navy today as aircraft carriers were to battleships.
treebeard901··on CEOs are hugely expensive. Why not automate them? (2021)
Build an AI that can play golf and bribe Government officials. Problem solved.
treebeard901··on Global Memory Shortage Crisis: Market Analysis
Code the AI will produce will solve the memory usage problems which is itself a result of lazy or poor human coders.
treebeard901··on How We Found Out About COINTELPRO (2014)
Gang stalking has evolved to mean that people using the surveillance state, often bored people in Govt or law enforcement with a specific target (and false justification), will all work together against the target and do various things to them. It is meant to be done in a deniable way. Turns out that the same people involved in this also control the doctors and the medical system who can then make a determination that the target is delusional. After all, the doctors, medical professionals, etc all require licenses from the state to continue operating.

This follows from Stasi like tactics developed in East Germany which mirror the methods used by COINTELPRO. The Stasi called it Zersetzung, or deconstruction. One difference is that the Stasi didn't have the massive surveillance state that exists today. They also required in person informants on other friends and family. A large portion of the population became informants and participated in the forms of Zersetzung against the states defined target.

Now cell phones and online services, along with constant tracking and surveillance have replaced this need for human informants. They still exist of course, but are just not a requirement.

Some of it is just bored, power tripping law enforcement agents or people in Govt with access to the surveillance state. Even with all the data brokers and sharing, it's possible for a reasonable wealthy person to do this without acting under the color of law.

Hopefully the public will know more about these operations in the near future. The lying, rights violations and gaslighting is all uniquely un-American, and the public needs to hold the state accountable for it.

EDIT: A lot of the YouTube videos about it seem to go off the deep end and include conspiracies like Havana Syndrome or other crazy stuff that does fall under mental illness. This allows actual gang stalking where 3 or more people rely on Govt authority and the surveillance state to target a specific person, usually with the goal to harm them in some way. Often not physically. More reputationally, and so on. Zersetzung was real. Much is known after the fall of the Stasi. It is happening in the U.S.

treebeard901··on Bankruptcies are exploding across the economy
Let Quantitative Tightening run off the Fed balance sheets entirely and see what happens with bankruptcies and the economy more generally. With the amount of money created over the past few decades, it's difficult to know how much of the economic activity is just Govt debt spending. If you compare this to the total amount of debt created in that time and the percent of GDP to service the debt, much less create more to sustain the system, it will all come crashing down.

Never underestimate the Govts ability to kick the can down the road and delay the inevitable.

treebeard901··on Dialtone – AOL 3.0 Server
The world wide web, information super highway.
treebeard901··on Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2026?
Debt and Liquidity Crisis in the Bond Market that spreads to other areas. Probably first signs will be in the Repo market and go from there.

Zelensky will be replaced as Ukraine's leader and Ukraine as a whole will switch back to Russian control, moving the new front line to other former Soviet states and Poland. Also, all of the weapons provided to Ukraine will begin pointing at Europe instead of Russia

China will begin blockading the islands around Taiwan, leading to a blockade of Taiwan itself. Odds are there will be a peaceful reunification with China instead of a war.

Maduro will be overthrown in Venezuela and is all being used as leverage by the U.S. in its negotiations with China and Russia

The GOP will retain control over the House in the upcoming Midterms

A large labor reduction in many high paying jobs, such as tech, due to higher productivity provided by AI. In normal times, this would cause a kind of deflation to balance everything out. Due to the pending economic crisis, the Govt will spend even more money to try to maintain the current system, leading to more inflation.

The cost to service the current debt will be used to justify a large reduction in Federal Govt agencies and services.

The Atlas comet will not be an alien spacecraft

The public will learn more about the extensive surveillance state and be less approving of it.

The Epstein files will be a big nothing burger.

treebeard901··on Lawmakers want to ban VPNs
All it does is make it easier for the Government to monitor VPN connections. They already can request logs from providers. Most, if not all VPNs require a proof of identity which is used to subpoena your data. Next up is device security itself. Most phones can be remotely compromised with man in the middle style certificates. Most sites do not use certificate pinning and there is always a master key for decryption built in at the certificate authority level. Unless you have banking level certificates with certificate pinning between sites, a random VPN not tied to your identity and secure devices, a VPN just sells you the illusion of security.
treebeard901··on How cops can get your private online data
I was trying to be generous. I stand corrected.
treebeard901··on How cops can get your private online data
About a decade ago, there was outrage over just having access to metadata. Since then, the backdoor access has expanded. Now they have moved past metadata and on to content of your messages.

The public is largely unaware of just how much control third party governments give law enforcement. They can manipulate your search results to hide information from you or promote certain things they want to be presented to someone they are looking into.

If the historical basis of this access is being able to read the list of library books you check out, now it has expanded to controlling which books are recommended to you and they have the ability to control the content of the media you receive.

A common dismissal of this issue is that nothing can be accessed without court orders or a subpoena. It's important to remember that this is only really true if they intend to directly use the information obtained from you in a court proceeding. Often times it is about information gathering on a target that is not meant to be used in court. Even then, they have endless ways of using a form of parallel construction to hide the source of the information. This also extends to data brokers, which have to work with the Government to continue operating. The same is true for app developers who want their apps to be listed on app stores. Or device manufactures that want the ability to sell their products and pass FCC certifications...

In more serious cases, it extends to the concept of your identity itself. Law enforcement often will not hold itself accountable for violating the laws or your rights. Identity theft tied to online actions against you is not out of the question for them either. When it is taken this far, good luck reporting it and having it resolved.

The stuff they can do with the backdoors in YouTube, the advertising system, cloud document storage (LE can view your live work in cloud storage like Google Docs, etc... Imagine working on a lawsuit against someone watching you formulate your legal arguments)... It just goes on and on...

End rant

treebeard901··on With Nancy Pelosi retiring, stock traders who copy her need to find a new hero
Nice rate of return given an annual salary around $200,000.
treebeard901··on PanamaPlaylists – Leaked Tech CEOs Spotify Profiles
Bondi listening to Nelly is difficult to comprehend.
treebeard901··on U.S. intelligence intervened with DOJ to push HPE-Juniper merger
The DOJ and the Courts have all been owned by the business class for a long time. It is basically whoever has the most money or political connections. Nothing else really matters.
treebeard901··on Colombia seizes first unmanned narco-submarine with Starlink antenna
I have always wanted to do this but it's not like they post on LinkedIn
treebeard901··on Few Americans pay for news when they encounter paywalls
Most "news" is probably just paid content creation with some kind of agenda behind it.
treebeard901··on GPT-4o shows humanlike patterns of cognitive dissonance moderated by free choice
Human thought, biases, and behaviors can all be described as various chemical reactions in the brain. Cortisol, the fight or flight response, adrenaline, dopamine and so on. Simulating these chemical reactions in a neural net might get closer to real human patterns of biases like cognitive dissonance. Even seeing an LLM of anything more than a statistical prediction machine is another human bias at work that we also use with animals... Anthropomorphism.
treebeard901··on Working on databases from prison
When the Government is so corrupt they can take your ability to work any kind of job away from you without even arresting you for anything, having employment from prison is a real achievement.
treebeard901··on Twitter's new encrypted DMs aren't better than the old ones
With all the ways devices leak data, even now with all the AI integration and the screen recording happening in Windows, it is safe to assume encrypted messaging is not as secure as it used to be. Onscreen keyboards and device notification systems also offer other areas that can leak what you type.

The financial and legal consequences for companies that refuse backdoors are just too great.

treebeard901··on Ask HN: Startup getting spammed with PayPal disputes, what should we do?
This is probably the best way to stop it from being automated. As well as a verified form of 2FA like a phone or email code.
treebeard901··on When the sun dies, could life survive on the Jupiter ocean moon Europa?
On a large enough scale of the solar system, if you zoom out just right, planets and stars can resemble interactions you can see on a molecular level inside a human body. Most of the time, it is normal organic operation. Every so often though, something goes wrong and you can see a new virus or cancer form on previously healthy cells. Smith had a point. From that perspective life on a planet doesnt look much different.
treebeard901··on Never Use WhatsApp for Work
Even better to avoid it entirely
treebeard901··on John Carmack talk at Upper Bound 2025
LLMs are being irresponsibly marketed as AGI to the general public and many do not seem to understand the difference. Clearly there are limits to how far current methods can be taken. They can only train on so much data and add more compute capacity before running into diminishing returns.

AGI is really something else entirely. If this was clarified, especially for Wall Street, we would see some changes in valuations.

At a certain point, it depends on how you define human reasoning capabilities. Maybe a collection of refined and specialized AI can get close. One counter argument could be that we are not far off from highly advanced robotics that have increasingly powerful reasoning abilities even without AGI.

After the automobile was created, global horse population fell dramatically. Who knows if the wealthy classes will need all these people to do the work for them in the near future.

treebeard901··on I used o3 to find a remote zeroday in the Linux SMB implementation
Yeah, the amount of engineering they have around controlling (censoring) the output, along with the terms of service, creates an incentive to still look for any possible bugs, but not allow it in the output.

Certainly for Govt agencies and others this will not be a factor. It is just for everyone else. This will cause people to use other models and agents without these restrictions.

It is safe to assume that a large number of vulnerabilities exist in important software all over the place. Now they can be found. This is going to set off arms race game theory applied to computer security and hacking. Probably sooner than expected...

treebeard901··on Getting AI to write good SQL
So again, no software, no customers, no value.

Those who provide AI to create the software will eventually take the customers directly. At that point, many existing companies of all kinds will just sort of be an unncessary intermediary.

It's not too different from how Amazon Basics monitored third party products sold on their site and eventually created a lower cost, often better product, to compete with them. Ultimately stealing their customers.

← PreviousPage 5 of 15Next →