treebeard901

Waiting on a "vibe coded" but modern LORD or TW2002...

Could make the games a lot more dynamic with the use of LLMs and maybe get people interested in writing scripts for text games again.

It is sometimes difficult to find publicly released polling for many different races, especially the down ballot ones. Other polling is done but kept internally and not released for free.

If a fake polling company could be set up to release polls for underreported races that are being traded on prediction markets then you could make a good bit of money by timing your trades to the release of your fake poll.

The goal is not just to influence the prediction markets to game a profit, it would also be to hope that once the polls influence the prediction markets, that it will feed back into the voters to actually influence the result.

It's a reasonable assumption that the cases where the NSA, etc, had a role in designing cryptographic systems, and reportedly made specific suggestions that could be forms of a backdoor, would all be revealed by AI being tasked to find it. Maybe even indirectly as part of the broader defensive security research by models unreleased to the public. If algorithmic complexity or a really obscure backdoor has existed in cryptographic systems and put there by the Gov't, it seems that current frontier models would have the best chance of revealing it.

To fully remove the national spy network from your life you would have to get rid of all other devices that will collect the same data or do already. Smartphones, smartwatches, home security systems, Wifi, any computer or device you did not build yourself, TVs, any other "smart" device, anything that has electricty going to it, any car since OnStar in the 1990s, all delivery trucks and self driving cars, your neighbors security system, devices that broadcast IDs, even bluetooth devices... So many examples..

The amount of devices in the national spy network which is passed off as just advertisement data is really providing full spectrum live video and audio to third parties that can and do share it for any reason that benefits them.

How much of a tax would it take to make him move to Texas with the others??

Unclear what this has to do with hacker news but really everyone in this situation is at fault.

Don't drive cars at people with guns that are pointed at you

Just get out of the way of the car if you're a cop instead of trying to fast draw the driver

Provide free diapers to lower income parents

The entire concept of identity is very outdated and the general public understanding of digital identity is not accurate. Scammers are one thing but there are other cases where the Gov't itself can direct actions on your accounts if they have a reason to be looking into you. You do not own your medical records, financial records, location data, bank accounts, or anything else.

In this case, it may not matter that she has the truth on her side. The prosecution already took it far enough to offer her a plea deal. All they technically have to prove is that some piece of a digital trail, like having the phone number in the past, is proof that she is guilty of the crime involved here. Her home mailing address, current phone, devices, lack of travel, no associated facebook accounts, none of it mattered to the point she was arrested, extradited and is now being offered a plea deal for something she didn't do.

It's made more complicated by the fact that a prosecution doesn't really care what is true or not. They are not about to devote resources to finding out if the case they are prosecuting is based on accurate evidence. They have to rely on the police report to do this. And good luck with an Arkansas cop understanding how the scamming world operates. He put down his donut long enough to run a search in LexisNexus to link a phone number. And that is enough for a felony conviction in our corrupt court system.

And this was with her being the target of a scammer! Imagine if the Gov't itself was after you and wanted to sort of coerce and frame you for a crime. Or even just use your accounts against you.

The whole system is corrupt and needs to be rebuilt from the ground up. Starting with the entire concept of IDENTITY.

One of many ways this could all play out from an incentive based perspective is that it starts with knowledge workers and coding. A next token prediction machine seems to excel at code generation for this reason. This has already begun causing problems in India with recent youth protests. It's not the entire reason for the protests but it is part of it. The indian grad to software developer pipeline is well established and under threat. The owner class wants to create the "value" from software without having to pay the high wages associated with development costs.

As AI advances, this spreads to other knowledge work that AI is capable of doing, which we might be seeing in mathematics if the OpenAI paper release stands up to scrutiny. Other kinds of data and analytics work will follow.

Then once the knowledge worker jobs are largely replaced, the middle management that is left will either be not needed or replaced.

By this time the only remaining jobs will be the manual labor jobs that can't be automated. Maybe as important as recursive self improving AI is going to be AI advances in robotics. Once this happens, the ownership class can finally start replacing the manual labor jobs that remain.

If AI can achieve RSI and be combined with robotics, maybe the prediction of just eventually having one company that does everything will become true.

One large AI company that does everything without any labor necessary, and everyone else I guess will just compete on OnlyFans. The only kind of work that neither AI or robotics can replace.

It's not guaranteed that a next token prediction machine is capable of recursive self improvement. Or will be able to create AGI in any form.

Many of the bases were created to fight the "war on terror" and conduct a decades long massive regional regime change that cost the U.S. trillions of dollars. Anything that changes the course on this and prevents more global empire building is a good thing... Even at the cost of losing bases that never should have been built to begin with.

It's also much more likely that Meta products will have much greater access to the Brazilian market if a U.S. friendly leader is elected. The alternative would push the alignment closer to using Chinese services. Brazil is kind of a battleground between Chinese and U.S. influence.

Human made launchers work great

If the next token prediction machine doesnt live up to the hype, this is going to be one massive bubble.

Maybe BoA can profit from the Russian Diesel sanction changes to make up the lost $1.2B

Photonic computing in general is not snake oil though. It's more real and practical than quantum computing especially for matrix multiplication which is the majority of model training compute usage.

Devices that may not be easily patched, especially industrial systems will not do as well in a world where LLMs are finding exploits. Atleast with other software the defending side can use LLMs and stay up to date in the arms race.

Anything that can be run offline should be airgapped and you still have to hope you dont get Stuxnetted.

Early copyright based legal arguments about the training of pirated information for AI didnt have much success. Im sure it will continue not being an issue for the frontier labs while copyright laws are enforced for everyone else.

It does have the blue angels flying over the city at one point

Is it a PR move designed for maximum IPO impact before actual mathematicians find errors and they have to withdraw many more...

Or if the "peer review" holds up for the remaining results, then it's fair to say that the AI hype is real and the world is about to change dramatically and faster than anyone can comprehend.

So which is it?? LLMs can do some really impressive coding. Bug fixing. Exploit finding. It has reasoning abilites that advance every day. Solving real math problems like this is one thing I was waiting on. It will be interesting to see if it holds up.

If it does, we should expect many other advancements to follow in many other areas. Disease, material science, fusion?

I mean, even if just a few results ultimately hold up to scrutiny, isn't that something that would have been regarded as a major advancement regardless of if it was AI?

The cynical view still makes me think that at the end of the day all the models can do is predict the next word. And as a result, they will be very limited to certain tasks like coding. Math reasoning is much different from writing code. Time will tell.

Could be the opposite result. The large infrasturcture and software development companies also have the hardware to run most of the models. This means the defensive side of the hacker arms race will benefit the defenders. Unless open source, locally hosted, LLMs become more powerful, then the powers that be will likely prevent most hacks that could have been possible in the past. We probably won't be able to have effective hacking groups anymore once this plays out and the systems get patched. The only way to find any exploits will increase in difficulty exponentially with only the more advanced models being able to find them.

Yeah that is one draw back they mention in the paper. So much of the full test stack is trained on and dependent on English.

A few months ago I went down this same rabbit hole trying to determine if using Chinese has any inherent advantages due to the way more context is encoded into Chinese characters versus what you find in English.

The total token size may not take into account any benefits gained by Chinese characters potentially encoding more context.

I have been meaning to see if any Chinese native tokenizers have been created to account for this feature of the language.

Unfortunately, many Chinese and Japanese characters can have many different meanings depending on how they are used. As a result they do not break down as well to be tokenized as a language like English.

Maybe some kind of hybrid intermediate language would be most optimal.

What is the economic war being waged on "the West"?

The U.S. suffers from a geopolitical bubble which operates like a financial bubble. Inside the bubble, global nations rebuilding and trading without the U.S. reserve currency is perceived as war. When it reality it is just the natural course of countries and economies after WW2.

Its difficult to believe they were not aware it was a school before ordering the strikes.

So many unanswered questions from this. Right after the narrative was that some form of AI was used to determine the targets during the initial campaign. Presumably they captured a lot of location data from IRGC and other Govt leaders to find places where they cluster at specific times and places. There are very few schools the Iranian elite would send their kids to and so there was heavy concentration at this specific place and time. They had so many targets in the opening days that maybe they only used certain graphing algorithims and took the ones with the highest centrality scores and the most common repeating place and times for the targets they had in mind. But then you have to wonder if some human somewhere didn't cross reference this supposed AI output to determine what specifically they were about to bomb.

That question should be answered. Did human review of this target reveal it was a school? If so, did someone in the Govt approve the strike knowing this?

Was it too tempting of a target given who was likely in the same place at the same time (dropping off or picking up their kids from school) ? Did they use phone location data and since parents buy phones for their kids, it looked like a lot of IRGC and other state officials were at that location, when infact it was their children and teachers?

Even more disturbing, if they knew it was a school and still chose to strike, was the intent to wipe out the next generation of Iranian leadership?

Just so many unanswered questions with no good answers.

Of course it was a war crime.

If the LLM is writing the SQL it might as well build the query plan too.

> To our temporary relief and encouragement, it has not managed to fully resolve even one ...

Why would that be encouraging if the purpose of their chosen profession is to advance physics? This is sort of like mathematics being solved by AI with human researchers complaining that they are losing potential awards. It's an entirely self serving way to be.

I always thought the smartest thing to do since countries chose to accept fiat currency in exchange for oil was to create as many patroleum reserves as possible and print as much money to buy as much oil to store for later use as they would sell.

All the prompt engineers clogging up San Francisco for dreamforce need to get back to the office.

It's an evolutionary trait that is in response to increasing use of electronics and computers. As being good with technology is a larger part of survival of the fittest, the autism traits will only increase along with it.

Its so manipulative for IPO reasons too. The fact is that all of these systems are still just stastically predicting the next token. Spending trillions on data centers and more training data hasnt changed the fundamental reality that it is still just predicting the next token.

That is not worth the investments being made.