ttunguz

A wonderful way of showing what AI can do to expose human creativity.

How is it different than other agents and co-pilots?

I completely agree. I switched to neomutt three or four years ago and there are a few things with text-based emails that really accelerate my workflow.

1. Fewer distractions. 2. Scripting keyboard shortcuts through emails - creating a to-do from an email with just tapping a function key, for example, or adding a company to a CRM with another function key tap. 3. Being able to delete emails with a Regex filter, which is really important for mailing lists. 4. Much faster latency which Though it seems to be trivial Google's research has shown is important to great user experiences 5. Ability to use neovim within the email client. 6. Local search using not much which again much lower latency than Google even for very large mailboxes.

I'm curious where did you find the data point that they sold an equal number of units quarter over quarter?

Yes fair point. I see that pattern when running background tasks locally vs on heroku's workers.

In this case, most of the analysis is happening locally without a ton of network use.

Good addition. I should have been more clear.

Yes, that's right.

Author here: I agree with you on benchmarks. It's hard to compare different databases well.

MotherDuck is an analytics database optimized for reading with columnar compression. Postgres is more of a transactional/general purpose database. Tuning it well for analytics would surely improve performance.

Most people won't tune a db with custom indices though because it can be hard, so purpose built solutions like this offer value in those cases.

The article isn't purely about performance but also ease of use. MD is an in process database so starting with it is very easy.

Glad we agree on the power within a laptop! It's underappreciated.

Does anyone have experience running either of these three in production?

I love TUIs and I'm looking for a TUI calendar. But there's one feature they all lack: sending availability to someone. Using grep or rg would be great. That's where Calendly and Vimcal shine.

OP here: in these notes are processes for 2 multi-billion dollar sales and most of the points applied to those as well.

sorry, fixed now.

Benjamin Graham is the best

Yes, it's a portion of the stock market that's going down a lot. The money is going from technology companies into other companies like healthcare and energy companies. So while the overall market may not be down that much, the technology market is going down a bit. In relative terms, it's gone down to the same levels is about 2 years ago. So there's no disaster scenario here, but there is a pretty significant drop in price from a high level.

I agree. It's not there. In fact, we've seen something like five of these corrections in the last 10 years. https://www.tomtunguz.com/five-corrections-saas/

No doubt he built a sensational business focused on cash flows. A lot of the software companies generate significant cash flows because they start to collect multi-year upfront payments for their software. Some of them call them remaining purchases obligations which you can find in the 10ks and annual reports. But the market broadly doesn't look at this today. Maybe at some point in the future though

I'm hopeful that the capital markets will incentivize entrepreneurs to fix this problem much more quickly than most people anticipate

There's a really good article on this from Lynn Alden that I will paste here that talks about how this dynamic actually implies that the US is selling its long-term capital assets in favor of short-term capital goods that depreciate, so it's actually a negative for the US. https://www.lynalden.com/january-2022-newsletter/

I could see that. There's been a transformation in top 10 companies in the last 20 years. They used to be consumer packaged goods and energy companies, and now they are technology companies.

Speaking of somebody who's very much pro technology, I think technology has improved the lives of billions of people, reduced information asymmetries, reduce the cost of goods and services, and provided more democratic access to lots of things, but there are some negatives.

Fwiw, all of information technology comprises about 10% of the US economy

I ran a regression of the CPI / inflation rate and its impact on the venture capital ecosystem both in terms of median round size and also total dollars invested and it's very highly correlated at north of 0.7

It's a fair point. I didn't go back that far in the data set. I think the one major difference between the last 10 years and the.com era was the lack of viable business models in that time. I think the crypto ecosystem looks more like 2000 than the current software market because most of the software companies today worth billions generate hundreds of millions of revenue. Also, the interest rates within the last 10 years are going to be most similar to the ones that the FED is contemplating implementing over the next couple of years. The rates in the early 2000s were significantly higher in the 3-6% range. https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-c.... Last, the third trend that's important is just the volume of dollars going into venture Capital which is 20 times what it was during that period of time

The US stock market represents something like 60% of all stock market value, but the US GDP is only 25% of all global GDP. If you are long to stock market, you have to believe that this kind of disproportionate behavior continues because there's a lot of confidence in the US markets and the dollar.

15 years ago they were priced at 5x and it's gone up to 15x then up to 55x then to 80x and now back down!

there's been a rotation out of technology because of the prospect of interest rates going up. because most technology companies don't generate earnings (profits) for many years, and because many investors use DCF (discounted cash flow calculations) to value a company. the greater the interest rate, the lower the value for these business. that's why it's a broad sell-off.

I'm the author. Most public investors look at these companies on a forward revenue multiple because the vast majority of these companies don't generate positive earnings.

There's a software solution to this: https://reincubate.com/camo/

Use an old phone for your webcam. The quality is terrific, up to 4k. You just need a phone stand.

Thanks for the feedback. What data would help with the argument?

it's mattermark data.

And I'm curious why a longer time horizon makes the data misleading. I calculated over 3 years to minimize the risk of aberrations/flashes in the pan. What time period would you suggest?

Thanks for the feedback. I did provide the total amount invested ytd (approx $50B according to Mattermark) and the second table shows share of total venture dollars by category, so multiply the two and you get aggregates by sector.