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turtlesdown11

276 karma · joined April 7, 2019

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turtlesdown11··on eBay Rejects GameStop's $56B Takeover as Not Credible
TD bank is never going to give $20b for this transaction, they spelled it out quite clearly in their HC letter. It was a publicity stunt by GME.
turtlesdown11··on eBay Rejects GameStop's $56B Takeover as Not Credible
> They have leaned hard into collectables as a way to expand their business and retail model

This is a market that is a fraction of the size of the game market, their pivot is into a smaller business?

turtlesdown11··on GameStop makes $55.5B takeover offer for eBay
> Is Ebay really THAT badly run that they can find such efficiencies?

Well, we should point out that Gamestop hasn't grown their own business - they've lost 50% of revenue since 2020. Why would anyone trust that management to "turn around" another business?

turtlesdown11··on GameStop makes $55.5B takeover offer for eBay
> A strong cash position business like that is effectively a finance sort of business

You are conflating companies that make a lot of cash (and therefore can afford debt service) to a company that has limited cash flow, but has a large pile of cash.

The shareholders would be best served by a special dividend of the cash. Management has shown zero ability to grow a business.

turtlesdown11··on GameStop makes $55.5B takeover offer for eBay
> Declining revenue does not matter

When the revenue goes to zero, how much of that pie will be profit? The industry they're in is dying quite quickly, and there are no other revenue centers. The high margin business they had was reselling physical game media.

This is the same story as other dead physical media, CD's, DVDs, etc. It's going to continue to decline, and GME has no pipeline of future revenue. They continue to close stores and shrink.

Also, yikes https://xcancel.com/sshxbt/status/2051311101279887652

turtlesdown11··on GameStop makes $55.5B takeover offer for eBay
>Not growing revenue

Not growing revenue would be one thing, they're shedding revenue at pace - 50% decline since 2020.

> Shareholders seem to agree

First, it's a meme stock. The market can remain irrational for long periods. Another way to analyze it - almost all of the market cap of ~$10b is the $9b in cash. The shareholder pricing tells you they value the business at it's cash assets.

Gamestop's business of physically selling video games, consoles, etc is a dying/dead industry. Nothing can change the trajectory of the market that is almost completely disappeared.

It's a Blockbuster or Tower Records, a dead business running on fumes and memestock valuation.

turtlesdown11··on GameStop makes $55.5B takeover offer for eBay
Their margin was highest on used physical media, which continues to plummet. Physical sales are down from $13b in 2015 to $1.5b in 2025, while total sales of physical + digital went from $23.5b in 2015 to $60b in 2025. Physical media is a tiny fraction of current game sales, even if their margin skyrockets, they're stuck in a tiny kid pool of potential sales.
turtlesdown11··on GameStop makes $55.5B takeover offer for eBay
Total revenue has declined for several years, -27% in 2024, -11% in 2023 (2023 rev was $5.9b, to $3.6b in 2025, this is a shrinking business).
turtlesdown11··on GameStop makes $55.5B takeover offer for eBay
Operating income was $232.1 million, not $285.9 million.

https://investor.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-details/202...

That total revenue also declined 5% YoY

turtlesdown11··on GameStop makes $55.5B takeover offer for eBay
> GameStop already has this network of pawn shops, and those stores are doing enough business to justify their existence

Gamestop closed 2,400 stores from 2020 to present, and operates just 2,200 stores currently. They'll continue to close stores as their revenue continues to shrink (down 60% in the last decade).

>used gaming inventory

physical used game inventory is a fraction of what it was a decade ago, and continues to shrink as a category, digital sales continue to climb and exclude Gamestop

turtlesdown11··on GameStop makes $55.5B takeover offer for eBay
Perhaps a simple analogy would work here - you made $86,000 in 2016, and had a $6,000 surplus that represents your profit. In 2020 you made $50,000 and spent $5,0000 of your savings to stay afloat. You shrink your lifestyle. Now in 2025, you make $35,000 a year, and have a $2,000 surplus. There are no prospects for more income and you expect to earn $32,500 next year, and maybe $30,000 the year after. Would you consider this a turnaround for your finances?

Likewise, the company's revenue has declined ~60% in the last ten years, and declined 5% from 2024 to 2025. The business became marginally profitable when they shrank the business by reducing operating expenses and produced a small profit.

There are no significant avenues for growth in their current business model, revenue will continue to decline, as it has for the last ten years because the core model of re-selling used games continues to shrink. As revenue decline continues, they'll run out of people to lay off and stores to close, there will be no profit because the revenue is too small, and the company will BK.

There is no turn around, the company continues a death spiral.

turtlesdown11··on GameStop makes $55.5B takeover offer for eBay
Anyone can offer to buy a business, I'm sending in a competing offer based on my internal valuation of my Schrute Buck holdings.
turtlesdown11··on GameStop makes $55.5B takeover offer for eBay
>Like you say, no one goes to game stop anymore, it's too crowded

Must be why it's revenue is declining to it's historic 2006 level, because it's just too busy.

net sales 2016 $8.6b, 2025 $3.5b and still in decline

turtlesdown11··on GameStop makes $55.5B takeover offer for eBay
> turning the company around

The revenue for Gamestop continues to decline, even if they are "profitable". The annual decrease in revenue continues. It's a dying business, it hasn't been turned around. The most charitable comment you can make about the company is that they've shrunk the business to align with their revenue decline.

https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/gme/revenue/

turtlesdown11··on GameStop makes $55.5B takeover offer for eBay
> I could see this working out decently, assuming the CEO of GameStop doesn't mess it up completely.

So far he's failed to improve Gamestop's core business, which is still in decline, even with the memestock cash gusher.

No one goes into Gamestop anymore, and they won't start because of eBay.

turtlesdown11··on GameStop makes $55.5B takeover offer for eBay
> Who would down vote this? It’s true.

It's not an answer to the question of a turnaround, and therefore low quality information? How much you have in assets does not correlate with the ongoing success of the business. Examining the day to day business of Gamestop and excluding the memestock shenanigans leaves a very bad business.

The core business has declining revenue - net sales 2016 $8.6b, 2025 $3.5b and still in decline. Cash flow from operations also continues to shrink.

Store footprint has shrunk.

The underlying business stinks, even if they made a ton of money selling stock, they haven't done anything significant to halt the spiral.

To the poster below asking if I'm drunk. Please provide some sort of revenue citation to 18x? https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/gme/revenue/

turtlesdown11··on I'm Peter Roberts, immigration attorney who does work for YC and startups. AMA
Definitely, was interested in what's been happening since the current administration's changes to immigration policy, but you're absolutely correct.
turtlesdown11··on Apple accidentally left Claude.md files Apple Support app
absolutely, a careful eye can discern Apple's goals by examining leaker comments on topics, not that they're consistently truthful
turtlesdown11··on I'm Peter Roberts, immigration attorney who does work for YC and startups. AMA
> Please don't waste community time and space by posting unsubstantive comments.

It's a very genuine question for how an attorney deals with these businesses? There are countless examples of startups breaking the law at mass scale (Uber, etc) and getting away with it. Sorry that asking difficult questions is wasting "community space". Your own profile cites conflict as essential, is asking difficult questions not part of that?

Part of the guidelines you asked me to review is "Assume good faith." Did you assume good faith from my comment?

One of the more recent discussions here was about Medvi, which described many illegal/unethical business practices. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/02/technology/ai-billion-dol...

Other examples include Airbnb building a bot poaching listings from Craigslist, Stripe not developing appropriate internal rules to enable fraud and drug transactions, pretty much all crypto exchanges and KYC, etc.

Obviously, payment processors like Stripe do not spring into existence fully formed with mature controls. My question relates partially to how attorneys in this domain handle the risks associated with undeveloped compliance, compliance failures, as well as business models that are diametrically opposing the law.

There is an area that many startups believe is "grey" where they operate outside of legal norms, whether it's to enable growth, lack of appropriate risk controls, etc.

Here, startups may knowingly, or unknowingly break the law related to immigration in order to further their business. That's what my question relates to.

turtlesdown11··on I'm Peter Roberts, immigration attorney who does work for YC and startups. AMA
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turtlesdown11··on Apple accidentally left Claude.md files Apple Support app
Gurman is clearly Apple's preferred go to for leaking info
turtlesdown11··on FCC Funding Application Notes Paramount Will Be 49.5% Foreign-Owned Post-Merger
yeah keep voting red and look like Mississippi, Oklahoma and Louisiana...
turtlesdown11··on Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
So a prediction machine chose a particular predicted path, and then came up with phrases to ameliorate it and you're swooning? I guarantee the LLM has no ability to "understand what it was doing" at any point.
turtlesdown11··on Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
so after $80 billion spent, they must have an ecosystem of hundreds of millions of users? Right?

Maybe they should have spent that on the facebookphone

turtlesdown11··on Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
> Self-driving had never the amount of compute, research adoption and money than what the current overall AI has. Its not comparable.

$100+ billion in R&D and it's not comparable... hmm

turtlesdown11··on Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
> Its not a statistical next word predictor.

it absolutely is a next word predictor

turtlesdown11··on Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
> Progress is huge and fast

is it? we're currently scaled on data input and LLMs in general, the only thing making them advance at all right now is adding processing power

turtlesdown11··on Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal
AGI moved from a technical goal to a marketing term
turtlesdown11··on Palantir employees are starting to wonder if they're the bad guys
[flagged]
turtlesdown11··on Tesla discloses $2B AI hardware company acquisition in filing
> That's not quiet or sneaky in any way.

Has any company ever buried such a large acquisition in its filings without disclosing the acquired company prior? I cannot recall any off the top of my head.

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