417 karma · joined May 29, 2019
You're right that we're limited in how much news we can pull. Generally, we can only look about 90 days into the past for news articles.
I'd definitely like to expand the corpus of information that we can pull from. Getting access to reliable historical data is high on that list, as it will dramatically improve base rate estimation.
But here are some recent predictions that we thought were pretty reasonable: * https://aipredict.fun/prediction/a0354d22-d44a-4115-a774-1cc... * https://aipredict.fun/prediction/1518666d-d5f8-40b1-bee9-561... * https://aipredict.fun/prediction/c13193fa-4155-4b47-b50a-432...
Like, one obvious reason people skip meals is that they don't have time. If you don't have time to eat, you're probably working long hours and really stressed out. Stress could easily contribute to CVD or otherwise take years off your life.
Another obvious reason to skip meals: you don't have money to buy food. Poverty is well known to lead to worse health outcomes.
Or one more: people skip meals because they have no appetite. What's a big cohort that routinely skips meals because they have no appetite? The elderly.
Maybe they ruled these kinds of things out in the full paper (I've only read the abstract) but so far I'm unimpressed.