Hacker News Reader

vicowon Show HN: Euro 2016 predictions using Bayesian inference

We did, it helps quite a lot! Concerning the model, we use Gaussian process classification with a logit link function, a linear kernel and Expectation Propagation as inference method.

vicowon Show HN: Euro 2016 predictions using Bayesian inference

We are not considering the player's age as a feature at all actually.

Concerning the predictions, they depend on the starting 11 for each team. We took the most recent ones, i.e. during the last friendlies, which are probably not the ones that will actually start the game!

vicowon Show HN: Euro 2016 predictions using Bayesian inference

Could be, yes! We'll see after the Euro ;)

vicowon Show HN: Euro 2016 predictions using Bayesian inference

We tried to consider it as an extra player, but it didn't help.

vicowon Show HN: Euro 2016 predictions using Bayesian inference

Hi! I'm Victor, one of the researchers behind this project. We used the most recent lineups (up to yesterday) to do the predictions you see on the web page. We will update them with the latest friendlies (e.g., Portugal indeed) and before every game, as soon as we have the official lineups!