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vm

1,370 karma · joined July 19, 2011

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vm··on The Next 10 Years Will Be About “Market-Networks”
Mods - please update title to show that this is from 2015.

Author says Honeybook Series B was "last month" - it was Mar 2015 https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/honeybook

vm··on NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash
oops didn't mean to imply that for the driver. meant it to as a meta-comment.

my point was that the driver probably didn't know the crash was about to happen. broader investigation into "why the crash happened" is more fruitful than "what the driver could have done differently once the crash happened"

vm··on NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash
If you were aware of what was happening. Smartphones are distracting.
vm··on As Google Feeds Cats, Owl Lovers Cry Foul
the only part more confusing is that this was upvoted to the front page of HN
vm··on Andy Rubin Puts Essential Up for Sale, Cancels Next Phone
"Essential Phone The most beautiful Android upgrade, ever." is the tagline on their homepage. That's hardly an uncontested product niche (aka Blue Ocean Strategy). Apple dominates "beautiful" phones. Even if you believe the Android carve out (I don't), this is literally what Samsung has been doing for years and Google is doing with Pixel.

Doomed strategy from the start.

vm··on Andy Rubin Puts Essential Up for Sale, Cancels Next Phone
Different [1] is one of my favorite books on how to find a unique niche in crowded markets. It is written by a (brilliant) marketing professor but is useful for product strategy. Also see Blue Ocean Strategy [2] on this topic.

Essential had neither of these approaches.

[1] https://www.amazon.com/Different-Escaping-Competitive-Youngm... [2] https://www.amazon.com/Blue-Ocean-Strategy-Expanded-Uncontes...

vm··on Roll over Einstein: meet Weinstein (2013)
Related, here is a simple 10 minute video by Weinstein where he gives a nice framework of his approach and its significance on how we approach science: http://bigthink.com/videos/eric-weinstein-after-einstein-we-...
vm··on Working Lego pinball machine built from 15,000 bricks
For pure pinball design, the legas dampen the thrash and clang that metal and hard plastic have... which also make pinball fun.

But that's obviously not the point of the project which is impressive in so many ways!

vm··on SEC filing suggests MoviePass’ time is running out
curious where did you see that >90% driver churn data? many drivers I speak with have been driving with uber / lyft for years (in SF)
vm··on SEC filing suggests MoviePass’ time is running out
Reminds me of Classpass and it's business model evolution. Sounds like they have transitioned well after spending significant capital.

http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/01/technology/classpass-credit-...

vm··on Square to buy Weebly for $365M
Precisely. Square has a sticky customer relationship with SMBs, a customer segment that has been tough to sell to because of high CAC and high churn. Now that Square owns this customer relationship, it is selling adjacent services to those customers and making more money over time (increasing LTV).

Square ecosystem partners will get replaced by Square directly over time; like how Twitter ate all its ecosystem partners with its own competitive offerings.

vm··on Square to buy Weebly for $365M
Great exit for a team that hadn't raised much $ + great acquisition for Square given the easy upsell path to all its SMB customers.

For perspective, competitor Wix is a $4B market cap company at a ~$500M revenue run-rate. Shopify, which is quite different, has a $12B market cap at ~$1B run-rate. This is a massive market.

vm··on Can Facebook be replaced? Let’s invest $100,000
Agreed. So then what are the most active online communities today that aren't Facebook/Google/Twitter/LinkedIn?

At first cut I think of Telegram, Signal, Discord, Snap, WeChat, Line (East Asia), KakaoTalk (Korea). Maybe HN.

vm··on Facebook to ask everyone to accept being tracked so they can keep using it
Ironically, the FB opt-in approach from the article is more privacy-forward than the publisher's automatically implied consent...
vm··on Amazon warehouse workers 'peed in bottles' fearing punishment for taking breaks
I was referring to software developers having greater leverage in the labor market. Writing useful software gives developers higher economic output for their labor than we’ve had in history. It also creates unique mobility opportunities for remote developers. It is changing the capital vs labor dynamic. This is true for a narrow part of the labor market, which is why I put quotes around the word labor.

Can’t edit my earlier comment but felt I should clarify.

vm··on Amazon warehouse workers 'peed in bottles' fearing punishment for taking breaks
This is changing in the software world.

Software gives "labor" more scalability and leverage than ever before.

vm··on Ask HN: What was your best passive income in 2017?
Public market stocks. I know this isn't exactly what you're asking but I mention because it's worth considering in your personal decisioning framework (and is my honest answer)
vm··on Zuckerberg on Cambridge Analytica situation
No mention of the word "sorry"
vm··on Show HN: Tinder Revenue Estimate
I really like what you're doing here. Two things that I would like as a user: -ability to get updates (pref email) when new companies are added or companies I follow are updated -timeline for the financials. are these annual revenues? monthly? etc.

Nice work on shipping!

vm··on Show HN: Buy Me A Coffee – A free, fast and friendly way to receive donations
UX edge case for you: I use f.lux which turns makes my laptop screen appear red at night. It makes the $ amount barely visible on the buy buttons. It took me a lot of clicking around to realize that it was even there. I was trying to figure out what the $ amount was for a cup of coffee and surprised that it (seemingly) wasn't listed anywhere! Checkout what it looks like on iOS night shift which has a larger user base.
vm··on Apple Music on Track to Overtake Spotify in U.S. Subscribers
This is a much better strategy by Apple, than Microsoft’s strategy against Netscape in the 90’s. Here, Apple charges consumers the market price [1]. Microsoft on the other hand gave away its browser for FREE. Free is better for consumers but it sparked antitrust backlash. Apple just let time play to its distribution advantage.

[1] The $ are the same for consumers but not for Spotify. It loses margin because of the App Store’s high take rate. As a result, Apple Music makes more than Spotify on a per consumer basis, even at the same price

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Microsoft_C....

vm··on Open Letter to the Airbnb Community About Building a 21st Century Company
This also announces that Ken Chenault, former CEO of American Express, joined their board. What's really interesting is that he also joined the board of Facebook last week [1].

He must be a damn good exec who was recruited left and right during his 37 years at Amex and, now that he's retired, he's going to mentor the top execs at the top companies [2]. Exciting development for both Airbnb and Facebook.

[1] https://www.recode.net/2018/1/18/16905386/facebook-ken-chena...

[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/18/business/american-express...

vm··on Front (YC S14) Raises $66M
What does the customer see when you reply from Front? e.g. your individual email (youremail@company.com) or a team email (sales@company.com)

Sorry for the basic question -- I couldn't tell from the demo video and the free trial takes some setup. Trying to figure out if this fits existing workflows or would need new workflows to be built around it. Thanks for your help!

vm··on Bitcoin May Split Many Times in 2018
How do Bitcoin holders "receive" or trade on these forks?

Coinbase eventually distributed Bitcoin Cash but I haven't heard anything about Bitcoin Gold or Diamond.

vm··on TV, retail, advertising and cascading collapses
In addition, building construction has a massive carbon footprint. Concrete creates 5% of the world's CO2 [1], not even counting the energy used in construction. Home delivery from a distribution center eliminates stores. Seems like that will bring massive energy savings.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_impact_of_concre...

vm··on Trial of a blood test that detects eight common forms of cancer
Smelling Parkinson's is fascinating -- thanks for dropping that nugget.

Read a little more about it --> Researchers identified 10 molecules that Parkinson's patients emit and could be used for early detection. Pretty cool. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health-fitness/body/meet-woman-ca...

vm··on Monthly Amazon Prime membership fees are about to increase
What?? Amazon Prime is a killer value! Netflix is $11/month and Spotify is $10/month. Sure, those services are definitely better than Prime Video and Music, but I still use Amazon's offerings a similar amount so the $13/month bundle feels like a great value at 40% lower cost. And this doesn't even count the services I don't use like free Kindle books or Twitch game discounts.

Not to mention the faster delivery times... The real benefit there has been changing the way I shop and think about shopping. I think I save massive amounts of time by almost never going to stores again. Even if the time savings is moot in the end, the psychological benefit of never having to go to stores has been wonderful. How much is that worth? I don't know, but it feels like almost zero cost given the value I get from Prime Video and Music (again, I admit that those services aren't "great").

vm··on Google managers kept blacklists of conservative employees
This reminds me of the awful investment banker / hedge fund emails that came out after the financial crisis. Feels like tech is replacing Wall Street, a in bad way.
vm··on Bitcoin Can Drop 50% and China Miners Will Still Make Money
Every country has corruption, both illegal and legal. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporatocracy
vm··on Buffett Says Stock Ownership Became More Attractive With Tax Cut
Check out Bill Miller's investor letter where he discusses the "certainty" of storied investors that Bitcoin will fail. Miller is the most successful mutual fund manager in history.

https://millervalue.com/certitude-not-test-certainty/

Also a good read is Miller's letter on Bitcoin from 2015. He put 1% of his fund into Bitcoin (now 50% of his fund due to the meteoric rise in price): https://millervalue.com/a-value-investors-case-for-bitcoin/

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