1,781 karma · joined July 17, 2009
Co-founder of Antithesis
Co-founder of FoundationDB
Co-founder of Visual Sciences
Everyone would be better off with better identity management, but it's not worth anyone's time to be one of the first users of a system with no sites supporting it or one of the first site supporting a system with no users. The web3 version of this will be something where if it takes off the first adopters get super rich at the expense of late adopters, and that makes it take off.
Similarly, conventional profit models incentivize the creators of a technology to make it as centralized and locked in as possible, so that they can profit off it over time. The pyramid scheme business model incentivizes the creators to make a decentralized and open system, so that they don't have to do any work over time once it takes off.
Is this the special kind of stupidity that only really smart people can aspire to, or the special kind of genius that only really stupid people can? Time will tell, I guess.
At the moment, humans are still necessary for situational awareness, but probably machines can get there pretty soon. A phone, for example, that monitors its surroundings continuously and has enough intelligence to reliably distinguish normal access by its owner from duress or the presentation of fake biometrics seems like it's within reach of current technology (though it doesn't actually exist).
I am not any kind of expert in this field, so you are not obligated to listen to me... but I am still right.
To see this, remove the word "literally" from such a sentence. You are generally left with a statement that is still hyperbole or metaphor and not literally true. Which word are you going to redefine in a sentence like "It turned the world upside down." to enable you to interpret it literally? If you understand it as hyperbole, why does adding the word "literally" require any special meaning for that word?
Conversely, if you believe that the word "literally" literally can mean "not literally", in the same way that, say, "cleave" is an auto-antonym, it would authorize statements like
(*) When you use metaphor, you are speaking literally.
(*) What I said was the plain truth, but John took it literally.
which I think you will agree are not standard usage.Moreover, if you replace the word "literally" in a sentence like
"It literally turned the world upside down."
with something that means "not literally", like "It figuratively turned the world upside down."
it changes the meaning. The first sentence is hyperbole and the second is awkwardly literal.I understand the desire of lexicographers to document this usage, which is as you say common (and legitimate) and seems to confuse people, but it's just not a different meaning of the word.
Perhaps you should show some nontrivial examples of (read) queries in RefineASM.
Also, what are your plans (if any) for non primary indexing? Storage plans seem like a good fit, but will you transform RefineASM to maintain the indexes or what? What about using the indexes?
The miasma theory isn't quite right, but it could conceivably have provided a half decent rubric for designing a working particle filter: at least some unpleasant smells are carried by particles. (Burning incense inside the mask is an example of where this theory might lead you off course.)
Code which is executed deterministically cannot receive timing channels (or, indeed, learn anything about its environment) and hence cannot exploit Spectre. This seems potentially practical for this sort of library sandboxing problem.
It's true that the difference between good health care and totally overloaded hospitals could be a factor of two or more in the CFR.
But the difference between hospitals overloaded by a factor of ten and hospitals overloaded by a factor of twenty isn't.
If this disease has hospitalization, critical care, and death rates as high as it appears to (these rates are really hard to measure in the middle of a fast growing epidemic with inadequate testing and lots of variable lags, but we have e.g. Diamond Princess and South Korea to extrapolate from) and it is allowed to infect almost everyone, "bending the curve" until hospital capacity is not utterly overwhelmed would take years and years. And require lockdown after lockdown after lockdown to keep the case count down.
If it's worth huge sacrifices to reduce R, it has to be to reduce it to less than 1, shrink the epidemic to a manageable size, and then implement a massive testing and tracing operation which in combination with hygeine (masks!) and less costly social distancing (and eventually vaccines) hold R below 1 forever. Asian countries appear to have succeeded with this approach, so there is reason to think it isn't impossible. But without that follow up, or without reaching R<1, lockdowns can only delay the inevitable and will save a negligible number of lives.
Re is effective spread rate, taking into account natural immunity, vaccination, contact tracing, etc. By definition, if Re>1 the epidemic is growing exponentially and if less it is shrinking.
1. Perfection is better than imperfection
2. All our options are imperfect
3. Therefore, we will do nothing
I am almost sure that our society, even without prior preparation, could physically produce huge numbers of "more effective than nothing" masks (especially for protecting others from the wearer, which is easier) very quickly at, say, 10x the cost (because you are recruiting less than ideal resources, like factory lines designed for other things that need extra labor) and 75% effectiveness (because you aren't applying the usual extremely strict standards that apply to NIOSH masks or whatever). Even if everyone taped a paper towel or sock over their face I bet it would reduce large droplet transmission by 50%. But we are not able to do so, because
1. These masks would cost more than masks used to cost ("price gouging!"). Imperfect.
2. They wouldn't work as perfectly as physically possible. Imperfect.
3. Some people would make money selling fake masks or whatever in the confusion. Imperfect.
4. We already made a bunch of regulations mandating perfection and no one wants to take responsibility for removing them
and maybe also
5. The people who should have stockpiled masks (edit: in the government or medical supply chain, I'm not saying individuals should have thought of this!) would have to admit their mistakes
So, "we" lie to people that masks are useless (charitably, so doctors can have more; uncharitably, because 5) and do nothing.
A working version of this that actually affects the asymptotics rather than just buying you a few weeks at best has to be able to identify new case clusters while they are small, and then find and isolate a significant fraction of the cases (working backward as well as forward). Table stakes for this is the ability to test everyone with flulike symptoms who tests negative for flu (and flu tests have horrible sensitivity, so that is a lot of people). As I see it from my comfortable armchair, CDC should have made sure long before the epidemic that the RT-PCR capacity to do that existed (doing other work at private and public labs) and could be recruited and online to do this within a few days of the virus being sequenced. You also would need everyone to at least moderately change their behavior because I don't think this would be enough by itself. Simple things like not going to work sick or tolerating co-workers or employees who do seem like feasible changes with both cultural and legal levers to pull that could be very low cost and contribute significantly to Re reduction.
More speculatively, you might be able to do even better using pooled PCR tests to look for RNA in large groups, giving you a chance to spot even asymptomatic cases. Is there viral rna in sewer water or garbage? PCR amplifies exponentially, it should be able to cope with a fair amount of dilution.
It wouldn't be crazy to ask international travelers to pay the marginal cost of extra testing and/or the negative externality of spreading the virus between worse and better controlled regions.
As hard as it sounds for the economy to adapt to extreme social distancing for a short time and moderate for a long time, it seems like a better bet to me than trying to increase intensive care capacity - which already consumes a nontrivial fraction of gdp - by orders of magnitude and write off millions of lives.
There is a difference between the best tool for the job and better than nothing. Our civilization has a dangerous habit of mandating the best tool for the job, and then unnecessarily suffering with nothing in an emergency.
Moreover, even if the party line that coarse unsealed masks are completely worthless at protecting the wearer from infection were true, it would still make a big difference in the rate of spread of the virus for everyone to start wearing masks! Who cares what the private benefit is when there is definitely a public benefit? And yes, we could make plenty of masks for everyone if we weren't crippled by regulation, hatred of supply and demand, and the attitude that inaction is better than imperfection.