HNHacker News
TopNewBestAskShowJobs

vsl2

120 karma · joined August 15, 2011

submissionscomments
vsl2··on The Missed Red Flags on Groupon
I don't see how Groupon is anything more than a huge bubble waiting to burst. They may be worth something, but nothing even close to the valuation that Groupon/bankers are trying to create with accounting tricks.

From a merchant perspective, I don't see how using Groupon helps long-term profitability. Almost everyone I know who use Groupon regularly only visit the participating merchants when using a Groupon and never again. Furthermore, they are reluctant to pay full price at any merchant if they know that that that merchant has previously had a Groupon promotion.

So the merchant not only effectively spends marketing $$$ (since Groupon is supposed to be considered a marketing expense) for customers that will only use the loss-producing (likely) coupon, the merchant also devalues itself in people's (including those that did not previously use a Groupon) eyes.

Additionally, the daily deal industry itself doesn't have strong reasons to remain tied to a company (unlike social networking where people tend to stay where their friends are) and there are very low barriers to entry. Granted, if you're the biggest player in the market, you have certain advantages like economies of scale, brand recognition, but I don't know if that is sufficient to thrive in this industry where people jump from site to site depending on which site has the best deals for that day.

Add in pre-IPO accounting tricks and early cash-out (while the company is running hundreds of millions in the red)...well, you get the point.

vsl2··on Inserting Artificial Objects into Photographs
As technology progresses, it seems like only a matter of time before all photos and videos can be perfectly modified to suit whatever purpose. At some point, perhaps movie stars will do no more than lend their likeness (airbrushed of course) to productions.
vsl2··on Understanding How Dilution Affects You At A Startup
Informative in a nice visual way.

Bottom line #1 - the actual sale price of the startup can have very little to do with what the founders get to take home (especially after taxes).

Bottom line #2 - (obviously) increase the startup value by orders of magnitude if looking for FU money.

vsl2··on Facebook Says Some of Your Personal Data Is Its 'Intellectual Property'
The laws, written in 1988 and 2003, were not designed with modern situations in mind because, back in 1988 or even 2003, many did not foresee the vast influence of social networks. The definition of "trade secret or intellectual property" in those laws are not likely going to give a clear answer as to whether certain Facebook user data fits that definition - i.e. its going to be an ambiguity argued in court unless a settlement is negotiated beforehand (at which point, the uncertainty remains and is waiting for the next controversy).

Historically, at least in the US (and I'd assume the rest of the world), the law adapts slowly to new industries because of (i) the difficulties in deciding how to best tackle the issues in the new industry and (ii) the bureacracy involved in enacting/revising laws.

For example, take a look at the way that hedge fund managers are able to get away with a 15% capital gains tax rate on their entire income because they structure their income to fit the law. The government is still trying to play catch up on that one, years later.

vsl2··on Facebook Says Some of Your Personal Data Is Its 'Intellectual Property'
Whether Facebook can get away with this depends on (i) what the data is and (ii) applicable European legal precedent, if any..

There may not be any legal precedent with regards to this type of situation since laws (in the US and abroad) are notoriously slow to adapt to new technologies, so this case may be the first test.

From a moral standpoint, it clearly seems wrong for Facebook to claim that its users' personal information is its intellectual property. Users can protest Facebook's stance through account closings, etc. But its not likely that enough users will care to force Facebook to change.

vsl2··on The True Cost of Commuting
I couldn't finish reading the whole thing, and I'm usually thinking about maximizing everything all the time.

He completely lost me when he said people could change jobs to reduce the commute. Isn't there usually a reason that people are working where they are? Things such as chosen field and salary? We're not talking about teenagers working fungible minimum wage jobs here...

Everyone tries to minimize their commute times and where they end up living is a reflection of the compromise between different values. I think this article points out that people don't prioritize commute time enough because its only taken in small daily doses and that's a valid point, but that time is also not completely wasted if you can find something productive to do (e.g. listening to audiobooks, language lessions or relevant news).

vsl2··on Netflix kills Qwikster
Yes, but it should also be said that Blockbuster is offering its $10/month streaming service only to Dish Network customers.

I don't think there are many people who are going to make the switch to Dish Network because of the ability to pay to stream a very limited library. If Blockbuster offered the streaming package to the general public (like Netflix), then we may have some real competition.

vsl2··on Netflix kills Qwikster
Netflix, Spotify, Pandora, and pretty much any other digital media streaming service will likely face a problem at some point fighting with content providers about licensing costs.

If you're a content provider, why would you want to take anything less for your content than everything Netflix could afford to pay? Particularly since there are other options (e.g. Amazon, Blockbuster) that could grow to compete with Netflix.

It will be interesting to see how things play out between the media streamers and content providers. Unless a media streamer can get an essential monopoly on its market (e.g. Netflix in movie/TV, Spotify in music) to be able to set favorable terms, I think its going to be difficult for any streamer to be really successful.

I agree with many others that Netflix is doing a fantastic job of destroying its public image and goodwill, which is opening the door for other companies to make a push. And their streaming selection is so limited - I got the streaming trial, but couldn't find a single movie on which I wanted to spend two hours of my life and cancelled the trial a week later having watched nothing. I can't imagine paying monthly fees for this library unless I wanted to watch a certain TV show - but I'd probably cancel again as soon as I finished that show.

vsl2··on Steve Jobs has passed away.
A man who built possibly the most successful company in the world (not to mention what I believe is the best movie studio in the world). So sad that he died so young...
vsl2··on Why Germany seems not to want a quick fix for the euro crisis
Democracy I think is the least evil of the types of government that a society can have, but is still inherently terribly flawed (but less than other types of government) because of basic human failings (e.g. moral corruption, greed, "sheeple" mentality).

Perhaps only a benevolent dictator could actually make decisions in an unbiased "best for everyone" manner...but then again how long would any dictator remain benevolent once he/she's had a taste of absolute power?

vsl2··on Why Germany seems not to want a quick fix for the euro crisis
This article spotlights two of the root causes of the crises in Europe - namely, (i) broken governments that spend beyond their means and the (ii) moral hazard that exacerbates such overspending.

Greece Example: Greece spent too much money raised through issuing debt (which increasingly looks like an imminent default) and creditors continued to lend Greece money under the belief that Greece wouldn't be allowed to default by the rest of the Euro countries.

There's no painless way to fix this mess, but I don't think giving Greece a massive one-time bailout sends the right message to the rest of the Euro countries (and countries' creditors) regarding moral hazard. The citizens of bailing-out countries (e.g. Germany) will be incredibly angry, rightfully so, and who knows how that will play out. On the other hand, small delaying actions like the ones that have been taken since the Euro crises began only worsen the situation and undermine global confidence in European leadership.

Personally, I think the creation of a common currency (Euro), without a corresponding enforceable common fiscal policy, is the root cause of the global impact of this crises. One member of the common currency can bring down many of the rest of the members by contagion so essentially, the coalition is only as strong as its weakest link. The weakest link can be strengthened by enforcement of a common fiscal policy, but there was clearly no such common fiscal policy being effectively enforced in Greece.

Another problem with the common currency is that Greece cannot devalue its currency to (i) make its exports more competitive (thereby improving its economy) and (ii) lessen its debt load through inflation. Before the Euro, the Greek Drachma could have been devalued in order to accomplish (i) and (ii). Now, Greece has no way out other than default or waiting for a bailout which may or may not come.

No easy answers here, but my guess is that Europe will continue to incrementally increase its "help" to Greece and other struggling countries until a major comprehensive bailout is required. Similar to as in the US with its banks a couple of years ago, such comprehensive bailout will occur, global taxpayers will lose, and the cycle will continue until we see an even bigger problem next time. Happy thoughts to start off my morning...

vsl2··on How to Overcome Your Fatal Flaw
I find I work best at the hours of 12am-4am because (i) I'm naturally a night owl and (ii) everyone else is sleeping so no one breaks my concentration. It does make for some drowsy mornings...
vsl2··on Anonymous Twitter Alternative Created For Protesters & Revolutionaries
I guess its "anonymous" in the sense that the authorities couldn't quickly identify posters in order to disrupt gatherings immediately. However, I don't believe that there's any long-term anonymity (e.g. if you incite a deadly riot by falsely yelling "bomb", the authorities will come looking for you). If the police really wanted to find out who posted something, they could subpoena Vibe for information about the phone (e.g. phone number) that made the anonymous post.

Perhaps Vibe destroys all data about users/posts as soon as the posts expire...but even then, the cell networks would have some record.

vsl2··on FeeFighters Loses BBB Accreditation Over Investigative Blog Post
Maybe there's a market opportunity for a new business accreditation site. Though you have to wonder if anything short of a government entity or extremely well-funded nonprofit would be able to maintain its integrity.

Do I smell a Y Combinator success story in the future?

vsl2··on How to Procrastinate and still get things done
I added "comment on procrastinator article at HN" to my list of things to do and gave it low priority.

If only I could convince myself all of the onerous tasks at work were low priority...

vsl2··on Google Joins Apple in Push for Tax Holiday
Given the past experience with the 2004 tax holiday (little economic investment effect), the current proposal should be rejected. And to allow another tax holiday only sets the expectations that additional ones can be lobbyed for in the future, meaning these companies will again hoard foreign profits offshore in hopes of repeating this request again and again and thereby depriving the government of timely tax revenue.

This is a quite blatant attempt by these companies to game the tax system for their own (not public) benefit. As others have stated, these companies obviously held the foreign profits abroad hoping to have/create this type of lower tax opportunity to bring back those profits.

However, I don't blame these corporations for trying this - corporations' jobs are to make and keep as much money as possible, mostly in response to shareholders' desires for greatest economic returns. Anyone who owns stock in Apple and Google is a part of the reason for this attempt. If this tactic works, the market value of Apple and Google will increase and isn't that what essentially all shareholders want? Frankly, if these companies voluntarily paid all taxes without trying to find ways to minimize them, most shareholders will be furious at management.

Government, through its various corporate/tax laws, sets the limitations on what is permissible and not for corporations, and it hopefully tries to do it in the way that maximizes overall public benefit (balance regulation against enough corporate freedom to incentivize economic growth). The problem I see is that special interest groups have disproportionate power through buying influence. In order to prevent recurring instances of this same situations, the government should firmly show that it will not grant tax holidays now or in the future (then maybe companies will bring foreign profits back right away to the US, thereby paying taxes on time and maybe hopefully spurring economic investment).

My Conclusion: Companies (at least public companies) aren't wrong to try to maximize their value in every way within the controlled environment created by governments. The government should act in the way to incentive corporate actions in the best interests of the public (whether it be more tax dollars or economic growth or another objective). Just say no to the tax holiday.

vsl2··on Why You Should Bootstrap in Montreal or Join Startup Chile
Thanks for the additional information. It sounds like really interesting opportunity, particularly for those wanting to learn about a new culture.

And on second thought, the workshops and events are probably a good thing in that you're forced to step outside your intense startup focus to meet new people and maybe find prospective friends/users/employees/investors.

I really liked Santiago when there for study abroad - nice people and very modern city. Only complaint would be the air pollution because of the "containment" effect of the surrounding Andes mountains.

vsl2··on Good at Chess? A Hedge Fund May Want to Hire You
At least in getting your foot in the door. I'm sure Boaz Weinstein did something right afterwards to get to where he is.

I think the key is to make your own luck by pursuing your passions and being good at them. Dedication and excellence are always appreciated - and things may work out in ways you don't expect. Sounds pretty much like a basic guideline for the entrepreneurial attitude.

vsl2··on Why You Should Bootstrap in Montreal or Join Startup Chile
Not much information about other requirements for Startup Chile in the article.

Through Startup Chile's website: Teams must also give workshops, attend events etc., which hopefully won't be too big of a hassle. Not sure if you have to keep your business in Chile for a certain amount of time afterwards.

Government support and involvement: Possibly good or bad.

vsl2··on Chrome to take No. 2 browser spot from Firefox
I've often wondered how Mozilla's status as a non-profit affects its prospects. I've heard that its tough sometimes to recruit and retain because of the lack of lucrative exit possibilities for employees (e.g. IPO).

Don't know if Chrome is going to overtake IE, but it would definitely be good to see it give it a go.

vsl2··on RIM reportedly bails on PlayBook, considers exiting tablet market
There's so much mainstream consumption based not only on the quality/usefulness of a company's products, but also on the public perception of that company. Just think about Apple and its ability to turn everything it touches to gold. It becomes a self-reinforcing cycle unless something drastic happens to shift the momentum in the other direction (e.g. Netflix now suddenly is starting to go in the other direction after their recent poorly-received decisions).

Given RIM's downward momentum in the past couple of years, I don't think its a surprise to see its latest products do poorly. In the tablet industry, they needed something that was revolutionary or at least something very very good in order to have a fighting chance. Releasing something mediocre that lacked some basic features (native email) that Blackberries are based upon portended doom. The $500 price point guaranteed it.

Look at the recent launch of RIM's Torch 9850. Received lukewarm reviews at best (CNN destroys it) amid lots of hype from RIM. Can you guess where this is headed?

I don't really know what RIM can do to reverse their continuing downfall, but I think it starts with acknowledging that their proprietary OS is not going to work and get on the Android bandwagon. Then hope to get lucky with a blockbuster product.

At least they still have most of Corporate America...for now.

vsl2··on Amazon Unveils $199 Kindle Fire Tablet
Most people here and in the press (Amazon's PR unit included) consider this a company v company debate - "Apple vs Amazon" debate. Barnes & Noble seems to be such an afterthought that the Nook Color gets little attention though it is the directly competing product in terms of product specs and price (though the NC price will have to come down from $249 to $199 or below to compete).

The NC curently has what I think is a large advantage in that its easy to root via the microSD slot so it becomes a fully functioning Android tablet, including Android Market. The KF can provide Amazon media - for users, does this outweigh access to the Android market and native access to Google products? The NC still got nowhere near the appreciation from the public in its history that the Kindle Fire got in one day.

I'm curious as to what strategy Barnes & Noble takes with regards to NC in resposne to KF. A reliable source tells me that the NC is 85% owned by women and the targeted primary audience for its apps are 30+ women. There are few free apps because BN doesn't want to create an expectation of "everything should be free" (i.e. get users used to paying for value). The targeted audience also is one less opposed to paying for something nor have time to find free hacks (unlike young males). I don't think this market will be sufficient to keep the Kindle Fire from dominating at the $200 price point. Everyone, including not-yet-purchased-a-tablet 30+ women, will soon likely hear of the Kindle Fire and BN will lose much of its small core audience.

Given the $200 price point, I think that there may be an oppotunity for BN to make a large mainstream splash if it allows greater flexibility in the NC (including fully integrating Android Market). Otherwise, I don't see how it competes with Amazon because of "coolness" perceptions of the two companies. In that respect, Amazon competes with Apple; while BN competes with Borders (RIP).

← PreviousPage 2 of 2