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yrral

739 karma · joined December 25, 2009

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yrral··on Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims
How about the predominately male ownership of teslas causing higher accident rates. I see the paper adjusts for age and road type but missing gender is a pretty big slip-up?

I didn't read the paper fully but grepped for "gender" and "sex" and couldn't find anything.

yrral··on Tell HN: We have a responsibility to speak out against blockchain technologies
> All of these tools are strictly regulated specifically to avoid that collapse. Because we learned from when they collapsed before not to let them run wild and do whatever they wanted because it's a bad time.

But regulations didn't come before the credit card did right? Only after they were invented were regulations built. Let builders build.

> Only some fraction of the data is open.

We're talking past each other here. I'm talking about a subset of algorithmic stablecoins

> They're not good investments because they're overpriced, but they're not zero-sum. They have customers and the intrinsic value of the shares increases (ideally) through dividends, buybacks and capital reinvestment over time.

They're not zero sum. AMC, GME do not make money, so profits don't cover corporate expenses. They are quickly bleeding money.

yrral··on Magic Mouse 2 – A Terrible Design (2017)
I had the displeasure of using a magic mouse for 10 mins at an apple store once. I had to stop using it because my hand started cramping really bad because of the super weird ergonomics of the mouse. I'm a big fan of apple products but the magic mouse is one of the worst.
yrral··on Tell HN: We have a responsibility to speak out against blockchain technologies
> The answer is pretty straight-forward. Every time we tried this before it collapsed into a giant ball of flame.

This is availability heuristic. Many financial innovations work out well and power everything we do today without a second thought. Credit cards, internet banking, mobile banking, etc etc etc. Should we ban all financial innovations because a subset can cause collapse?

For stablecoins, the difference here is that all data is open. So for example with the latest news with MIM/abracadabra, all the loans/treasuries and collateralization ratios are viewable by everyone [1] and on chain as well. For Dai/frax/etc as well.

[1] https://dashboard.abracadabra.money/

For ICOs, this exists today as well in our regular regulated markets as well. Don't tell me you think AMC or GME is worth what they are worth.

> Crypto hasn't created anything new fundamentally, it's just re-hashing all the stuff we outlawed before because it was an objective breeding ground of fraud and crime and grift. The only thing new about the crypto economy is that the pitches are structured as "${previously_failed_idea} except on the Internet."

I'm not sure this is true.

yrral··on Web3 and crypto skepticism is growing and people are finally starting to listen
Your data being locked up by companies and not to be able to be used by others.

Web3 is less centralized in that the user data is exposed and freely available to be composed upon. For example, when someone makes a deposit (say of ERC20 USDC to earn interest, around 3.0% currently) on https://compound.finance, that data is freely available and the "receipt" becomes another token (the ERC20 USDC cToken). [1]

This token can now be used for other things, on any other protocol, without the involvement of compound itself. For example, there is a "compound" pool on https://curve.fi that allows users to deposit cTokens so that they can earn interest on their stablecoins while also providing liquidity for stablecoin swaps and earning swap fees as well on top. [2] In fact, with this pool, the user can deposit/withdrawal just pure ERC20 USDC instead and curve will deposit/withdrawal that into/from compound on behalf of the user, again, with no involvement of compound at all. (other than interacting with its "immutable" smart contract)

This deposit then gives the user back another ERC20 token "cCrv" that can then be used in other DeFi protocols without the involvement or authorization of curve.

In contrast, in traditional web2, companies gatekeep this information so hard that there are 10B+ companies such as plaid that mostly just scrape user bank account data. Just recently AA is suing The Points Guy for scraping their website. [3] I recall there's even a comment in this thread about someone getting their own scraper banned because they were trying to scrape their own data.

[1] https://compound.finance/docs/ctokens

[2] https://curve.fi/compound

[3] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30013100

yrral··on Mortgages are a manufactured product
For 3) it's a bit more complex than what you described.

Mortgages are generally securitized. High level, a pool of unrelated mortgages (think different parts of the US, different types of borrowers, different credit ratings) are packaged up together and then split into different tranches. Say you have tranches AAA-B. These different tranches are sold to different parties with different risk appetites.

Each tranche has a set interest rate, and AAA will have the lowest, and B the highest. Say like 2.5% for AAA and 7.2% for B. AAA is the most "senior" and B the most "junior".

When borrowers pay back their monthly payments, first the interest gets distributed to AAA->B, then all the excess goes back paying the principal of AAA. Once AAA is fully paid back (say 5 years later for a 30 year loan), the AAA bondholders no longer care about the mortgage, and the excess gets paid towards AA principal (then A, BBB etc). This keeps going on until every tranche gets fully paid back.

By structuring it this way it's "almost impossible" for the more senior bondholders to realize a loss.

Obviously there is more risk for B bondholders (given they are being paid 7.2% interest). So in this case, losses in mortgages are borne by B principal holders until they get exhausted.

Zooming back into the pre-payment risk, it's entirely possible that prepayments/refinances will allow the more junior tranchess to avoid as much principal loss as expected while picking up that juicy yield. (note when the yield for more junior bonds are 7.2%, anyone buying these already planned for some amount of realized losses)

This pic from wikipedia illustrates some of the concepts https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tranche#/media/File:Risk&Retur...

yrral··on Show HN: I bought and tested the filtration of every mask on Amazon
Hi, thanks for doing this. 1 piece of feedback is to have a couple lists of masks that you recommended so we don't have to comb through all the listings. I would put this page as the front page and then link/refer to the list to provide authority/weight to your recommendations.

Eg by type (surgical,duckbill,n95,kn95), by budget (budget, price/performance, premium), ships now on amazon, doesn't ship now but better in some way if you're willing to wait, etc.

Also I was looking at the 3m 9210 that you have 2 entries for in your table. The breathability is quite different between the two samples (98 vs 242). Is this expected? That seems a lot of variability for the same mask.

yrral··on Gmail as a threat to data access: forced 2-factor login, random lock-outs
I also run into this. I created a google account when traveling in the EU with no 2fa. The account was tied to an EU number I was using at the time (I believe google wasn't letting me register a new account without a mobile number). I for sure NEVER turned on 2fa on account.

When I came back to the US, I could not log into the account anymore. First of all, it would force me to receive a text or call with my EU number even though I never turned ON 2fa. Then, when trying to recover it further, I can answer all the questions correctly and then google says "Google couldn’t verify this account belongs to you."

By now, the EU number has probably already been recycled and the contents of the account are completely inaccessible to anyone (even though I _know_ all of the credentials/recovery details).

yrral··on “Fast Kernel Headers” Tree -v1: Eliminate the Linux Kernel's “Dependency Hell”
Kudos to getting this out. I can't imagine working on a series of patches for 2 years for build cleanups/speedups on a separate branch, having to periodically rebase against master and throwing away my work 3 times in order to figure out how to do it correctly. At any company I have worked for, I would have been fired for being unproductive/afraid of making changes.
yrral··on Web3 is centralized
Sure, but that information today is gatekept quite well and impossible for you or me to pull or integrate without partnerships or paying up heavily. For example, plaid is a company worth 13.4b where largely all they do is log in to your financial accounts on behalf of another (usually financial) institution to scrape your account data. If you try doing that yourself, you will be blocked by the risk systems of the various banks.

Other companies like mint and byallaccounts largely did the same thing and were aquired at $170 per account and $33 per account respectively. So obviously someone is making money on keeping your data gatekept.

yrral··on Web3 is centralized
Web3 is less centralized in that the user data is exposed and freely available to be composed upon.

For example, when someone makes a deposit (say of ERC20 USDC to earn interest, around 3.0% currently) on https://compound.finance, that data is freely available and the "receipt" becomes another token (the ERC20 USDC cToken). [1]

This token can now be used for other things, on any other protocol, without the involvement of compound itself. For example, there is a "compound" pool on https://curve.fi that allows users to deposit cTokens so that they can earn interest on their stablecoins while also providing liquidity for stablecoin swaps and earning swap fees as well on top. [2] In fact, with this pool, the user can deposit/withdrawal just pure ERC20 USDC instead and curve will deposit/withdrawal that into/from compound on behalf of the user, again, with no involvement of compound at all. (other than interacting with its "immutable" smart contract)

This deposit then gives the user back another ERC20 token "cCrv" that can then be used in other DeFi protocols without the involvement or authorization of curve.

At this point people are talking past each other because "centralization" can be used to refer to many things. The author's analogy is arguing about the direction/standardization of the technology, and the proponents of the technology are talking about the user data.

[1] https://compound.finance/docs/ctokens

[2] https://curve.fi/compound

yrral··on The state of external retina displays
Why is <220 ppi a dealbreaker? 27 inch 4k displays seem fine to me for retina and they are quite abundant. Though I've tried 32 inches 4k, and there the resolution is not enough for text work.

Dell has a 32 inch 8k display which is ~280 ppi in stock.

https://www.dell.com/en-us/work/shop/dell-ultrasharp-32-8k-m...

yrral··on Cryptocurrency scams cost owners $7.7B in 2021, driven by DeFi-based “rug pulls”
Another datapoint: USDC minted 7b in the last 30 days. Does 3b tether in the same time period seem unreasonable?
yrral··on Web3 is going just great
What are the goals behind these people who spend time making sites and long blogposts about the failings of blockchains/web3, etc?

In real life, if I talk to people about crypto they are curious and open to learning about it and most just don't have the time to learn about it.

However, when I go online and see a post about NFTs or crypto, there somehow is always tremendous backlash, generally by people not involved in the space. I'm curious what about this space brings out the critics moreso than other hot-button issues. Especially since crypto adoption doesn't really impact these people's lives the way other issues such as abortion, vaccine/mask mandates, or drug policy does.

yrral··on When HDMI 2.1 isn't HDMI 2.1 – the confusing world of the standard
Thanks for the reply, I tried this but it seems like anything below around 6% (.06) doesn't actually brightness anymore. This matches the behavior of when you press function+shift+option+F1, where if you set the brightness to anything below the first bar (1/16th = .0625), there is no difference.
yrral··on When HDMI 2.1 isn't HDMI 2.1 – the confusing world of the standard
Hey, I was wondering if there was a way to lower the minimum brightness of my M1pro built-in display. The minimum brightness at 1 notch is way too bright for working at night. I have to resort to apps like quickshade which just put a grey overlay on the display which kills contrast and colors.

I had found something on stackexchange to do this for previous gen macs, but was unable to replicate for current gen. This is something I would be willing to pay for. https://apple.stackexchange.com/a/179204

I figure with the HDR display there must be a way to control the actual backlight brightness.

yrral··on Ask HN: What things has tech made worse in your life?
I'm less able to really sit down and focus on longer-term projects because of constant notifications and an endless amount of media able to be consumed.
yrral··on Tiny
I recently learned this has become a meme and is called (amongst other names) "globohomo" art style.

https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/subcultures/corporate-art-sty...

yrral··on Proof of stake is incapable of producing a consensus
If bitcoin mining uses renewable power (and pays for it), is that destroying the world or is that encouraging renewable adoption?

If bitcoin mining uses co2 producing power (because the economics supports it), is that the fault of bitcoin or the government for not sufficiently taxing the negative externalities of that means of production?

yrral··on Proof of stake is incapable of producing a consensus
You never mentioned why you think mining should be illegal. Probably because of the outrage published by the media based on intuitive assumptions that end up not being true. That bitcoin mining long term is bad for the environment. However, this is not true even though it intuitively seems that way. (Similar to how making highways wider actually ends up making traffic worse, not better).

We can actually start with 1 question: If electricity demand from PoW mining spurs new renewable plants to be built, is that bad for the environment?

I (and many electricity companies) actually think PoW mining is good for the grid/renewable adoption in the long term. Let me explain why:

Some indisputable facts to get us started:

1. Most renewable electricity has unpredictable supply

2. Introducing marginal capacity of the same type gives diminishing returns. Eg: you're producing more during high supply times where electricity rate is low. During lower production periods all of the same type of renewable will be producing less so you can't even take advantage of the higher rates.

3. Rational bitcoin miners will turn off their machines when cost of power is greater than marginal return.

As a result, PoW mining will help the economics of building new wind/solar plants. Eg, currently it may not be profitable to build a new wind plant because base load is too low that the excess power generated would need to be sold off at 0 or even negative prices. However if bitcoin mining could be turned on during these times and off during periods of high demand, there will need to be fewer peaker plants in operation and it would positively affect the economics of opening a new wind plant.

Bitcoin mining only cares about the cost of electricity at a given time, it is not like most other electricity demands that are very time based. With the large variance of electricity generation by renewables, I think bitcoin can in the future help smooth demand according to the real supply/demand curve.

It's kind of like a different implementation of the Tesla utility grid batteries. Instead of deploying batteries, you force the grid to build more renewable capacity (that the miners are paying for) that miners use except in peak periods, where you turn off and effectively provide the grid with more power.

yrral··on Tell HN: Happy Thanksgiving Everyone
I've been a HN member for 11 years and 11 months to this exact day (I joined Christmas 2009).

Since then, I've lived in 6 different cities, 5 different timezones and worked on countless side projects. But all this time, HN has always been my most visited month after month.

I can always count on this place to keep me up to date with the latest tech trends and read discussions between reasonable people. Thank you all and especially dang for keeping discussions high quality. Especially as the quality of content on the rest of the internet deteriorates in the pursuit of virility.

It's a testament to you all that place feels the same as it did 10+ years ago.

yrral··on TIL the assumption that string length does not change when upper-cased is false
If you feel inclined, feel free to donate the $20 to a charity of your choice. Thanks!

Just for more context, I was thinking data tables: like this.

https://images.app.goo.gl/wWJgx9sntUAhXzQ66

yrral··on TIL the assumption that string length does not change when upper-cased is false
When you have fixed width font and need to size columns appropriately for the data displayed in eg: a table.
yrral··on Decentralised finance is booming, but it has yet to find its purpose
Uniswap v3 recently added support for 1bps (0.01%) pools. You can see here [1] that the usdt/usdc 1bps pool is their 3rd most popular tool if you sort by 24hr volume. And their popular pools are generally 5 bps.

Due to the nature of x*y=k pools, the spread would just be 2x the fee (but increases based on how much you transact vs how much liquidity there is). Or you can think of it as 0 spread with 1bps fees on both sides for the usdt/usdc pools.

[1] https://info.uniswap.org/#/pools

yrral··on Crypto Wash Trading
It's also very disingenuous for the title to say that 70% of the volume in the top crypto exchanges is wash trading when the 70% category they define are the least popular exchanges (they rank worse than 960 on the finance section of similarweb).

Even more so because the regulated exchange and popular unregulated exchanges have 0 and mostly <20% wash trading respectively.

yrral··on Brave Wallet: a secure crypto wallet, built natively in a web3 browser
I'm hearing this a lot, but why do you think NFTs are a scam?
yrral··on My Tungsten Cube (2019)
William Osman had a video where he "experimented" with a huge tungsten cube. It's quite entertaining.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9O551__3ppM

Another interesting fact about tungsten is that its density is 99.75% of that of gold. So essentially you can model how heavy something is if it was made out of pure gold with tungsten. Additionally, apparently gold counterfeiters sometimes put tungsten inside of gold bars to fake gold

yrral··on Show HN: 59a34eabe31910abfb06f308 – NeuralHash Collision Demo
> If not, what is going to convince them to stop at this point?

Maybe if masses of people go into apple stores and save photos on demo phones that collide with the files they're looking for. Do those phones get scanned? Will apple ban their own app store accounts?

yrral··on Sweden must repay $1.6M in Bitcoin to convicted drug dealer
The IRS does not accept cash either. And the process of converting your cash into bits that the IRS accepts ends up being the same process as converting your crypto into bits that the IRS accepts.
yrral··on Coinbase Drops Promise of Token’s Cash Backing That Wasn’t True
It looks like OP is a serial spammer that submits cointelegraph articles under his own domain?

https://cointelegraph.com/news/coinbase-removes-backed-by-us...

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