zeroonetwothree

Pretty much every "normal" person I talk to is very much against AI art and writing. None of them are on Twitter/Bluesky (neither am I)

Works with some kids but not all. All these threads always end up “I’m shocked that someone else has a different life than me!”

She was fairly incompetent at FB before that, I was surprised at the CEO gig when it was announced. “Failing upwards” I guess

And instacart didn’t ?

40 billion/day is extinct ?

I don’t think that’s true, words just tend to diminish in strength over time towards a muddy middle. Look at how basically anything gets labeled “fascist” these days.

For an older example consider “awesome” (literally: inspiring awe)

I don’t really agree for movies, basically my entire top 50 is pre-2010, many of my favorites much older.

We’ve seen a lot of changes since 2016 including the rise of short form video, podcasts, audiobooks, music streaming, substack, even vinyl is up 3x (!)

I am old enough to remember when we “listened” to podcasts :)

A nontrivial % believe P = NP with some reasonable probability. I wouldn’t say it’s all that settled unlike say RH

I’m not as smart as Scott but for me it’s more like 10% -> 20%. Do we have a prediction market for this?

Definitely puts some weight on the P=NP side of the scale!

I agree 100% with scientific consensus on covid but I also don’t support deplatforming based on viewpoint (vs content).

Yes capitalism is certainly known for continually decreasing quality of goods. That must be why life was so much better in 1800.

Oh you sweet summer child

Maybe it “shouldn’t be” but this is the system the US has had since 1803.

Gonzales v Raich :(

It is unlikely anyone would actually have zero utility, if only because of comparative advantage. (Although I think there will still be absolute advantage)

Pangram 4 is quite a bit better (that post is about the previous version). IME it’s quite accurate for anything over 500 words or so.

I would have been surprised were this not the case

I've been working on a large (~10MLOC) mostly vibe-coded project for months now. It's actually quite frustrating:

* The agent will fix a bug when I tell it to, but only in exactly one place. I'll notice that another place has that bug later and have to redo it. It's the sort of thing that I would know to check for if I were fixing it myself. Yes, I can ask it to look elsewhere for similar bugs, but even that's not super reliable.

* The user-facing text it generates is just as awkward as ever. I have to rewrite all of it, and sometimes it slips through. It's also hard to write text when you don't know what the code is actually doing.

* It doesn't have a good model of what kind of information is relevant to humans. It's just as likely to produce a paragraph of random jargon as a clear explanation of what's actually going on. It shows excessive detail for things that don't matter, and not enough detail for things that do. For example, it doesn't understand that $0 can logically mean "null" in terms of how humans think about things (e.g. "This item is free" vs. "This item is $0").

I kind of wish I hadn't gone down this path but now it's far too late, I can't really manually maintain this amount of slop. I'm quite sad if this is going to be the end state of this profession.

I'm curious what has improved so much. To me Opus 5.5 is very good but so was 4.6. I try to forget the versions in between...

Much like the output of agents themselves

When I worked at Facebook (pre LLM) we were around 50-100k per day. I imagine it's much higher now (quantity, probably not quality).

300 years ago 97% of workers were farmers. We automated almost all those jobs away. Is there extraordinary unemployment?

I know, this time it’s different, AI is different, blah blah blah.

Yes it’s because fences break constantly. So it would be less “insurance” and more like a forced savings plan.

How much of this is preference though? I don’t particularly like going to parties or especially hosting them in my home so the fact that there is less of this is actually positive for me.

As a programmer I’ve been ‘weeping’ for a few years now.

If investment managers are so good at investing why don’t they just make money for themselves instead of trying to get people to invest with them?

No, it’s unusual to use Turing machines as the model.