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zugweg

9 karma · joined November 9, 2018

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zugweg··on Using a Keras Long Short-Term Memory Model to Predict Stock Prices
ML is dangerously overhyped (that is an issue at play). This article uses min max scaling, so it will treat a 30$ stock as if it were 20$. You want someone like that managing your pension fund?

I refer to engineering code, because it is clear to me we don't want our bridges build by those not skilled enough to make safe bridges. Yet, it is not so clear with ML/AI, while the potential for damage may be even greater.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_Modelers%27_Manife...

zugweg··on Using a Keras Long Short-Term Memory Model to Predict Stock Prices
I think you are still confused. Replace DL with software.
zugweg··on Using a Keras Long Short-Term Memory Model to Predict Stock Prices
I think relating DL with human skills is confusing you. DL already beats humans in recognizing dog breeds. DL could always do a better job, because it looks at more patterns than humanly possible.
zugweg··on Using a Keras Long Short-Term Memory Model to Predict Stock Prices
Do not minmax scale the data. New data outside ranges seen before will be chopped off. Do make relative (high/low), so patterns you find generalize to other domains. Don't fit complex LSTM models on tiny datasets. Somehow this is the shiny thing all starters jump on, while the most simple models are the most proven and robust. Don't just share such a model without giving a disclaimer ("I never tried this out on real data, and would not invest my own money in this solution"). This is real money, real economies, and you could horribly crash these. That is also why you don't write with authority about how to build a bridge (while you never crossed a bridge you've build before). The only reason for the "clearly showing how powerful LSTM models are" is it responding to test set samples it got wrong, and correcting with a lag. How about some evaluation, preferably on another stock than trained on?