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I'm only halfway through the article, but must say that it's amazing so far and the dataviz much better and careful than what I regularly see.

You made me think. The weights of e.g. the SP500 are not ideal then.

Berkshire is in the SP500, but so are Apple, Coca Cola, Amex, BoA, etc. which are Berkshire largest investments. So if Coca Cola has an idiosyncratic hit, then you get hit twice by it: first in your KO holdings, then in your BRK.A holdings.

At the extreme, if there is a company that then invests in Berkshire and so on, you could end up overweighting a lot certain firms. Also, isn't there double counting in terms of the stock market cap?

Well Cali has 1/7th of the entire US GDP, so it's an unfair comparison. By itself, it would be the 5th largest economy in the world.

I'm VERY curious about what will the Fed do. On the one hand, rate hike seems less likely, but on the other this will drive inflation up.

If the US does what they should, they should completely blockade Russia from any access to the West, including SWIFT blockade, trade embargo, complete visa revocation, etc. This is not that useful (sp not compared to doing it 10 years ago) but still helps to reduce Putin's ability to keep waging war as it cripples Russia's economy.

BUT that of course has a cost to the West. Less business, risk of recession, risk of stagflation, etc. and that definitely tanks the economy. Until yday Bloomberg estimated the SP500 was trading at a 10% discount due to war concerns (my take is only ~5%) and overnight it has fallen only 2%, so I don't think a 2% fall over the largest war Europe has seen since WW2 is particularly large.

News like these are huge enough to feature on HN, but at the same time I understand why PG always tried to mitigate this. Here you have a lot of people who are most likely technically smart in their fields, but a substantial fraction of the comments seem completely detached.

> atlgator says this is b/c Putin didn't get his gas pipeline, completely reversing the causality of why the pipeline was put on hold yesterday.

> warner_of_doom suggesting us to go read why this is more than Putin and to go into the Chomsky et al hole of crazyness.

> ComradePhil making this about why CNN is a propaganda war machine so we should watch Chomsky again

Etc.

For all practical purposes, posting that code without an actual guide/readme and without the paper is useless. What are they solving, how is it better than xyz alternative, etc.

Same here. I hate ID.me and their piece of crap system. Never managed to get it working after wasting so much time. Luckily, I don't _need it_, so at the end I just gave up and used different methods. Would hate it if I'm actually unemployed and had to use that terrible firm.

But what are the options?

- Don't do anything AKA appeasement? Then Russia will keep on invading countries (Georgia Ukraine), fostering enclaves in other countries (Moldova) and maybe even annexing Belarus (who is one mistake away from that). Also, remember how appeasement usually worked in the past...

- War? Then you end up with WW3

By depriving as many resources as possible for Russia, you are limiting the scope they have to keep funding their huge armies. Maybe it won't help that much, but it's better than the alternatives.

You give it the Cuban treatment (not that I think that's right for the case of Cuba..).

Basically, the EU and US need to agree to completely blockade the country, limit travel to it, cut its access to global financial system, heck even cut its internet (yay less bitcoin hacks), and do absolutely everything but war for now.

> Maybe a formal standardization

In practice, that's what pandoc is (and it includes definition lists as extensions: https://pandoc.org/MANUAL.html#definition-lists )

You also have commonmark (an actual standardization) from the same author: https://commonmark.org/ (but DLs are not part of commonmark yet)

I always thought it was the opposite. That subreddits allowed the community to expand without catering to the lowest common denominator, and reddit would have fallen off the cliff faster without those.

> I did it grudgingly

For me it was the opposite. Back in Sept/October govt was telling people "no need to get a booster; it's fine" and then "get it after 6 months only" while reading about the Israel experience would have told you that it was safe and prudent to just get it after 5mo

I wonder if the same thing will be said about crypto or about current asset prices (e.g. TSLA mkt cap of +$1tn.. in what time horizon are they going to recoup that in actual profits?)

That's really pathetic, to put it mildly. Three weeks between initial contact and removal of compromised themes. Four months until public disclosure.

I'm curious, how do they compare against S3? (cheaper, easier to use, ...?)

That table is extremely useful b/c it tells us it's still too early to tell. Had just a single of the 785 omicron cases died (like maybe they got an unrelated stroke while in the hospital), then that would change the numbers from 0% IFR to 0.12% IFR (i.e. above Delta).

Also, noticed that ICU rate is 3x higher with Omicron (which might also be related to the lack of enough observations).

That said, I really hope IFR is much lower, given all the vaccines, boosters, and previous infections.

> A dozen times

That's what's so weird to me. I own an old 2012 Hyundai Accent, bought used at ~12k, and over the last five years I've only taken it for:

- Checkup and oil change - Wheel change - Battery change

But then I see all these examples of Tesla owners having to fix issue after issue after issue and saying "it's not so bad I just lost an afternoon each time going for an apt"

If inflation is supply-side (e.g. oil runs out, a ship gets stuck in Suez, etc) then workers lose.

If it's demand-side, then their wages should rise up together with inflation so they don't win or lose (except for whatever savings they have and whatever time it takes for wages to adjust).

Even if it's transitory, what's the reason to keep injecting cash _today_ via buying agency mbs and other securities?

What happened in 2019?

Let me know if there's any way to contact you about this! I'm quite curious from an academic perspective and would love to hear your thoughts (even if it's just a brief phone call or email)!

Is there a way to find out what was the market cap of those two? Searched coingecko and a few other places and came empty handed (they just list "price" but no historical market cap or outstanding coins)

Is there a way to know which CBs or CUs use which processors?

TBH 99% or more of what I hold is index funds. I started playing with Robinhood when trying to understand what was going on in the retail market (May 2021). On the other hand, I do think that from time to time you can get an insight that the rest of the market hasn't picked up.

About reghdfe, you are welcome! I wrote it because the server for my PhD thesis was a piece of crap, but it kinda found a life on its own!

It is instituted. I work at the Fed in a relatively junior role.

I can't buy bank stock, or for any practical purposes any financial firm stock (or bonds). I can't buy funds finance-focused mutual funds or any kind. I can't buy stocks of any firm where I have any sort of insider trading, such as contractors.

Lastly, there's a window around FOMC meetings where anyone with any sort of insider knowledge is prohibited to trade at all.

But last I checked on my Robinhood account, I do own some GitLab, Cloudflare, etc. firms that I think are doing quite well compared to their current market prices. And that's mostly based on what I read (HN, etc).

The question is, should employees be disallowed to own stocks at all? (Right now this rule is aimed at officers, but officers are like 20% of the number of employees of my division, so it's still a lot). I would say doing so makes it quite more difficult for economists to take jobs at the Fed, where the salary is not as competitive as in other places such as the private sector (and already all the friends in my PhD Finance cohort earn more than I do..). To make a parallel, imagine that working at Google prohibits you from owning stocks at any firm that trades/buys/sells/interacts with Google or its competitors.

> And they have funny printing patterns: whenever Tether stops printing, USDC starts.

I noticed that, specially recently. What's going on?

"Prudent households worldwide increased savings by $2.7T."

Is DeFi SO large??? Stablecoins have a mkt cap of ~130bn. And it's not like bitcoin (or the stock market), where you can start with 1000 tokens valued at $1 each, and then when the price increases suddenly the nominal wealth increases as well. These are stablecoins after all!

Completely agree with you. I'm always frustrated when I read papers that use patents as a proxy for innovation/research.

In fact, most people doing research in that area know that very well, but then, it seems there are no alternatives to patents (which are standardize, public, easy to access, and can be tracked across even centuries..).