I’m still wondering how the stock market is assuming that tech cos that rely heavily on digital ad spend like Google and FB are effectively recession proof even though media outlets with the same business model are clearly not.
For every vertical that went down (ie, mortgages, local small business ads) there's plenty of others that go up (ie, health insurance, consumer ecommerce).
I don't think media buys on newspapers are a significant amount of Google et al's ad business, adwords (ie, search based ads) is much bigger than adsense (display advertising). Search for any major keyword and you'll still find the SERP flooded with ad results. I'd imagine generally it's gone down for Google but I doubt it's by much total.
Yet the market just doesn't show it. And I've seen no good explanations.
For myself, btw: I'm mostly in bond funds and cash accounts at this point. There just has to be another severe crash coming in the next few months.
I have rotated half into Gold ETFs and the rest into cash for the next few months to do some bearish options trading.
A lot longer than any media outlet.
The market probably also thinks that a good chunk of the additional consumer use can be captured by google and fb post-covid.
If you think the same for click bait media companies they would be a great buy. Actual reader demand is through the roof - they just aren’t readers who are willing to buy anything.