Apple confirmed there is absolutely no intention of dropping it. It's coming in spring. I think Apple got already way too lenient in deciding to give developers almost a year-long grace period since the announcement at WWDC 2020.
Antitrust risk could be a factor, as the preferred treatment of ASA seems dubious - but the change seems to be coming regardless
Of course, the other half of people are running Android and I don't see Google getting on that bandwagon.