We have had thirty years of peace among the great powers. It’s been seventy years since armies last clashed in conventional, large-scale armored warfare on European soil - or perhaps anywhere.

Through these years humanity learned to expect perpetual and cold stalemate as an inevitable paradigm between Russia and the West.

Over these generations, humanity has on average become wealthier and more educated and more democratic - all correlates of robust peace between nations.

You’re not the only one surprised. I have little doubt that everyone, even the CIA analysts generating grim predictions before the invasion, was at some level unable to believe something like this was possible in 2022.

We can still hope to prove it was the absurd strategic mistake our intuition had hoped it was.