I think James Ker-Lindsay did a good analysis on the subject: - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9IteoUSEqU - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsUW-GZSPbA

In short, Russia and the current Republika Srpska leadership has incentives to keep the situation simmering but they don't have the means to heat the situation to the point of boiling.

The OHR can at any time remove from power any politician who would try that. NATO and EUFOR forces stationed in the country could easily quell any conflict. Even without relying Bosnia's internal security forces and neighbours that also have an interest in peace in B&H.