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Comment by Emma_Goldman | Hacker News Reader

Scotland's deficit is persistent. Between 2014-15 and 2019-20 it averaged 9.2%, compared to 3.2% for the UK as a whole. [1]

Infamously, the SNP's envisioned post-independence budget was based on their forecast for annual oil and gas revenues: £10bn. In reality they have averaged an order of magnitude less: £1bn.

Oil and gas are volatile commodities so there will be year-to-year fluctuations but the secular trend is clearly downwards. The best wells have run dry, and the UK is committed to net zero by 2050 and Scotland to net zero by 2045.

[1] https://www.economicsobservatory.com/what-might-the-public-f...

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> Scotland's deficit is persistent.

Scotland doesn't have a deficit, because Scotland cannot borrow.

What there is, is a proportion of the UK as a whole's deficit, which is carved up and apportioned to us, but the Scottish government has no say in what that is or how much.

That blindingly obvious fact is why I wrote 'implied deficit' in the parent comment. Scotland has public expenditure and tax intake figures. There are things you need to apportion - like oil revenues and UK debt obligations - but even with generous assumptions, if it became independent it would be running a large deficit. This isn't just a random figure.

This is a good overview:

https://www.economicsobservatory.com/what-might-the-public-f...

> Scotland's deficit is persistent

Yes, persistent (like the UK's) but not consistent as you implied.

9.2% and 20%+ is a hell of a spread to start cherry picking from.

More wisely, I would make my long-term economic decisions based not on the consequences of Tory governance, but on the potential upsides offered by managing the Scottish economy according to its own priorities.

> the secular trend is clearly downwards

Some might see this as an argument for ditching the folks who've overseen this downward trend.

Reserves have fallen severalfold since the basin was opened in the 1970s. Oil and gas cannot be produced on the same scale for the same returns as in the past. Most of the best wells have dried up.

The UK and Scottish governments are both committed to net zero, which means the managed decline of the North sea oil and gas industry. Sturgeon has publicly taken a harder position on this than Johnson since COP26.

If Scotland became independent nothing would change. Unless you think the SNP will confect new reserves out of nothing and abandon their climate pledges?

Sorry.

I misread the "downward trend" part as pertaining to the economics of the country as a whole, not the oil and gas sector as you clearly stated.

> Oil and gas cannot be produced on the same scale for the same returns as in the past.

Oil and gas is dead. We're producing far more electricity from renewables that we use, and England is buying it because they are struggling for power.

Do you really think a sane English government is going to let the lights go out because they can't make a deal with an independent Scotland?

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