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So using the access key as an example:

If I buy an NFT that grants me access to a very exclusive conference, how can I be sure that security will actually let me into this conference? Or how can I be sure at the time of purchase that the conference will actually happen?

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You would need to have a preexisting trust relationship with the issuer of the NFT. If it was originally minted with a keypair known to belong to the conference organizer or a trusted third party TicketMaster, then it'll probably be honored at the venue. If not, caveat emptor.

So how does this have any advantage over a regular ticket? (Other than “collectibles”)

As a buyer, you could validate the authenticity of a ticket from a reseller, so getting a counterfeit from a scalper wouldn't be a worry. I think that's it, though

No one can be absolutely certain of a future event, but you are being unreasonably negative.

Ok what’s the advantage of an NFT over a regular ticket then?

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