Comment by eesmith | Hacker News Reader

Comment by eesmith | Hacker News Reader

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The editorial "A Critical Analysis of the Evidence for the SARS-CoV-2 Origin Hypotheses" in the Journal of Virology at https://journals.asm.org/doi/pdf/10.1128/jvi.00365-23 compares the different hypotheses:

> Here, we summarize the scientific evidence that informs this debate to provide our fellow scientists and the public with the tools to join the discussion in a constructive and informed manner. Our goal is to dissect the evidence to make it more accessible to those interested in this important problem. ...

> Based on the scientific data collected in the last 3 years by virologists worldwide, hypotheses 1 and 2 are unlikely. Hypotheses 3 and 4 cannot be ruled out by existing evidence. Since hypotheses 1 and 2 support the lab leak theory and hypotheses 3 and 4 are consistent with a zoonotic origin, the lab leak- and zoonotic-origin explanations are not equally probable, and the available evidence favors the latter. ...

> The best existing scientific evidence supports a direct zoonotic origin. As new evidence continues to emerge from scientific studies or other investigations, our understanding of the origin of SARS-CoV-2 will continue to evolve. Nevertheless, it is possible that its origin may never be known with certainty. ...

> Given the currently available evidence, the two plausible possibilities for the origin of SARS-CoV-2 are not equally likely. Continuing to frame them as such does us all a disservice, dilutes our efforts, and misdirects resources—only serving to weaken our ability to respond to future pandemics.

Without the full data and an open investigation anything claiming any sort of definitive conclusion for or against lab leak is just propaganda. There are gaping holes in the evidence on both sides. Both the left and the right in the US are waging a political war on normal people.

The claim that it's "just propaganda" is itself propaganda.

As I quoted: "Continuing to frame them as such does us all a disservice, dilutes our efforts, and misdirects resources—only serving to weaken our ability to respond to future pandemics"

> claiming any sort of definitive conclusion

Which, you'll notice, that editorial does not do.

I quoted it: "it is possible that its origin may never be known with certainty"

It makes the weaker statement: "the two plausible possibilities for the origin of SARS-CoV-2 are not equally likely" and "the available evidence favors" a zoonotic origin.

> There are gaping holes in the evidence on both sides.

Where are the gaping holes in the conclusions of that editorial I pointed to? It sure comes across like there are far larger holes in the lab leak hypothesis than the zoonotic one.

> Without the full data

And until then, what, we do nothing?

It's not like we need full data to draw useful scientific conclusions, nor to make policy decisions. We do it all the time for other fields - what makes this one special?

> Both the left and the right in the US are waging a political war on normal people.

What a shame there aren't virologists elsewhere in the world studying this topic and publishing their own research.

Like, no one in France is able to draw a similar conclusion - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001393512... .

> Both the left and the right in the US are waging a political war on normal people.

To be fair, if those normal people had to reconcile Chinese slave labor with affordable luxury goods, they might wish we knew less about how the sausage is made. But largely I agree - this is a bipartisan cycle of neglect that lets China get away with far too much.

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