The Chinese are no more encircled than any 1b population nation holding trillions of dollars in trade, debt and assets internationally. This is specious. They haven't conducted a war outside their immediate borders for a very long time, and they aren't massing troops at the edges. Daily ritualised flights over TW and sending ships to the islands down by the Phillipines is totally different to conducting invasive offensive warfare across land borders.

There are hundreds of satellites in orbit worldwide, Leo and geo. You think they could hide the materiel to conduct this kind of warfare?

Ukraine was warned by the US leading up to the invasion. They just refused to believe it.

When the US declares there is risk and brings people home from Korea and Taiwan, and moves the fleet into region for more than freedom of the seas and wargames manoeuvres i will believe there is sonething here.

If you want a canary in the coalmine, look at Vietnam. There's no love lost. If they muscle up, something is happening.