On a meta level, it seems worrying that the probability estimate might update that rapidly....
> Now that skies are darker after a week of limited visibility around full moon, astronomers have resumed observations
The estimates changed a lot because they were being very transparent about the information as they were discovering it.
[0]: https://blogs.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/2025/02/19/dark-skie...
Every observation narrows the range of possible trajectories. After the initial discovery, a lot of observations were scheduled.