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I heard a rule of thumb that fab costs go up about 40% with each reduction in size. Is that accurate?

Intel paid ASML ~$4.1 billion to deliver 10nm lithography. That was ~ 1.5yrs ago (http://www.intc.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=690165). ASML stock is a good indicator what's happening in this business.

Intel has running 14nm which is 16% better on SRAM cell than 16nm TSMC.