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FredPret

8,682 karma · joined September 1, 2015

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FredPret··on You shouldn't salt a leech that's sucking your blood (2019)
I've never felt keener to limit my explorations to the great indoors
FredPret··on I Am An AI Hater
Me too. I bounce off of any product landing page that has "AI" slapped on it, which lately is ~99% of them.

On the other hand, if I saw a product labelled "No AI bullshit" then I'd immediately be more interested.

But that's just me, the AI buzz among non-techies is enormous and net-positive.

FredPret··on SpaceX's giant Starship Mars rocket nails critical 10th test flight
SpaceX IS doing lots of important things for the first time.
FredPret··on The ROI of Exercise
I noticed that two things make my DOMS disappear like magic:

- eating an shocking amount of spinach (works much better than a magnesium pill)

- some sort of light cardio of the affected muscles after lifting

FredPret··on CEO pay and stock buybacks have soared at the largest low-wage corporations
If you had a $100B asset, like Starbucks Inc, how much would you pay to search for and keep the right guy to run it?

The Venn diagram of people who have the diversity and depth of skills to pull off a major CEO role has a very small overlapped area.

If you choose your CEO well, you turn Apple in 1997 into Apple in 2010. If you choose poorly, your investment stagnates or evaporates.

So a couple of tens of millions in stock options are a bargain for investors. The value-add of any particular minimum wage employee, despite their equal human dignity and worth, is never going to even be in the same league.

FredPret··on How does the US use water?
But the reason I hammer on about this point is precisely due to the hysteria. In the popular imagination, we spray x million gallons of water onto a golf course, and it just evaporates, never to be seen again. It is the alarmism that alarms me.
FredPret··on How does the US use water?
Doesn't pass the sniff test:

From what I can glean from Google, the sun moves 1500 cubic kilometers of water from the ocean into the air every day, around 500,000 cubic kilometers a year (ie, a stupendous amount).

Apparently around 10% of that makes it up the various mountains and comes back down as rivers - that's 50,000 cubic kilometers.

And for scale, human "consumption" is 5000 cubic kilometers.

I agree we should be careful and intelligent about how we use water and where we get it from, but I fail to be alarmed.

FredPret··on How does the US use water?
I don't think they're uneconomical. Fresh, clean water is astonishingly cheap; of course people are using it to grow almonds and alfalfa in the desert.

Just charge people what the water is worth and they'll stop, or water companies will be able to afford much more treatment capacity.

You have a point about sequestering CO2 molecules, but:

a) I'm sure this will get cheaper over time, just like every other technology

b) we should be using solar and nuclear for everything

FredPret··on CEO pay and stock buybacks have soared at the largest low-wage corporations
This is a point always missed in debates about CEO pay. The money doesn't rain from the sky onto his yacht. Shareholders have to shell it out, and they'd prefer the CEO works for free. That CEO has to add billions to their bottom line in order to get paid millions.
FredPret··on CEO pay and stock buybacks have soared at the largest low-wage corporations
You're not asking this in good faith, but I'll give my answer anyway: companies have an interest in paying workers market wages, not more, and not much less.

Too much over the market rate, and you're not maximally efficient at converting economic inputs into larger economic outputs.

Too much under the market rate, and you'll see increased employee churn, leading to all sorts of other problems.

If you want workers to be paid more, as we all do, even us greedy capitalists, their economic productivity has to go up (not the same as working harder).

The best way to do that - as far as I know - is improving technology and education.

FredPret··on How does the US use water?
If it's the same molecule but downhill and mixed in with some other ones, it's just x number of joules and y number of dollars' worth of infrastructure away from being among its own kind and uphill from your tap again.

We get blasted with an uncountable number of these joules from above (the sun) and below (nuclear). Our economy is generating an exponentially increasing number of dollars.

I understand wanting to be careful with resources, but not to the point where frugality becomes a goal in and of itself.

FredPret··on How does the US use water?
> How much water is wasted on golf courses...

Zero. You can't waste water, it goes in a cycle.

I mean unless you transport it off-planet.

You can waste the energy you spent cleaning it and pumping it around. But between nuclear and solar we ought to have an overabundance of that.

In a market economy, if it becomes "economically infeasible" to purify used water, the price goes up slightly, and suddenly it makes a lot more sense to treat dirty water, or even seawater.

You see the same type of argument against oil or mineral use; the idea that we'll run out. But people who argue we'll run out almost always look at confirmed reserves that are economical to extract right now. When prices rise, this sends a signal to prospectors and miners to go look for more, and it also makes far more reserves economical.

For example, Alberta's oil sands were never counted as oil reserves in bygone decades, because mining it made no sense at the time. But the economy grew per capita and overall, prices rose, and suddenly Canada is an oil-rich nation.

A similar dynamic applies to water and everything else.

Of course there are finite amounts of oil and uranium and so on, but the amounts just on this one planet are absolutely mind-boggling. The Earth has a radius of 6400km, and our deepest mines are 3-4km. We may expect richer mineral deposits (not oil) as we go further down.

Keep following this price logic and at a certain point it'll make sense to mine the far side of the moon, the asteroid belt, and so on ad infinitum.

FredPret··on In Defense of Car-Centered Society
Neither is dictating what others can own
FredPret··on In Defense of Car-Centered Society
The day I bought my first car, my personal freedom skyrocketed.

Same when I later moved to a transit-heavy big city (Toronto). I tried to tough it out for years, but buying a car completely transformed my experience of living there.

FredPret··on Unity reintroduces the Runtime Fee through its Industry license
I do not have any insight into Unity besides looking at that plummeting profit graph.

But if they have a great product and a high price, then maybe they're just using way too many resources as input. It's easy to see that happening with bloated org charts / massive cloud bills / lots of overhead of some sort.

FredPret··on Unity reintroduces the Runtime Fee through its Industry license
Unity has been losing money for years, not sure I would incorporate them into anything business critical.

They're going to feel all kinds of pressure to monetize users harder, and if they fail at that, they go bankrupt.

https://valustox.com/U

FredPret··on Margin debt surges to record high
These high PE's imply an expectation of further profit growth - by rational investors. There's a strong element of less rational investors with FOMO jumping on as well.

Index funds offer some defense against crazy PE's through diversification, but keep in mind that when an asset bubbles, it also takes up a greater percentage of the index fund. The big tech stocks make up a significant % of the SP500.

FredPret··on Show HN: What country you would hit if you went straight where you're pointing
France is the country with the most surprising shape. Most of it is in Europe but the rest covers many timezones and several continents.
FredPret··on Show HN: What country you would hit if you went straight where you're pointing
I love that you can set the date. Apparently I'm looking at where the "plateau fishers and hunter-gatherers" were at 1 BC.
FredPret··on Volkswagen locks horsepower behind paid subscription
If you think that's remarkable, look at major non-tech companies.

Banks, mines, energy, rail, telecoms - companies that are making big profits right now and will be with us for decades to come, all priced like they're going to evaporate in a matter of years.

FredPret··on Volkswagen locks horsepower behind paid subscription
Adobe stock has been heading up and down but there can be many reasons for that.

Revenue and profit has gone absolutely nuts since subscriptions started and is clearly the way forward for them.

This model makes a lot of sense for software but none for hardware.

Adobe customers are indeed pissed off but they should fix that with lower prices and better terms, not going back to the old model that had them losing money.

FredPret··on German court declares Karl Marx's teachings unconstitutional
Going to bat for Das Kapital shows how shallow your understanding is.

It's a dry and boring book that latches onto the real frustrations of the working class to push an economic ideology that is so incompetent and disconnected from reality that it's completely indistinguishable from a genuine attempt to destroy society.

The fact that there's a 100m dead people and dozens of shattered cultures all around the world attests to the effectiveness of this attempt.

FredPret··on German court declares Karl Marx's teachings unconstitutional
Even so, Mein Kampf and Das Kapital seem to inspire and excuse killing on large scale, no?
FredPret··on Kodak has no plans to cease, go out of business, or file for bankruptcy
Short-sellers sometimes publish real or made-up negativity about a stock so as to push the price down.

Then they can close out their positions at a profit regardless of whether the underlying business is any good. In fact, it's kind of better to pick a poor business for this since it's less likely the stock will spike organically for some reason.

FredPret··on Zenobia Pay – A mission to build an alternative to high-fee card networks
Let me say first of all that the card networks do great work enabling commerce by being lightning-fast and generally secure.

I can securely complete transactions and subscriptions with ~anyone on the planet in mere seconds.

But holy cow do they have large margins. 40-50%!

The profit growth charts on these two are a sight to behold.

http://valustox.com/MA

http://valustox.com/V

The situation is simply begging for disruption.

FredPret··on Wholesale prices rose 0.9% in July, more than expected
We're running a deficit because huge promises were made to entire generations of people when we had a pyramid-shaped demographics, but now we have a population candle.

If you tax rich people even more than now, you risk simply slowing down the economy long-term and making the whole situation much worse.

FredPret··on Wholesale prices rose 0.9% in July, more than expected
...which is what's happening now, and for the past however many decades
FredPret··on Wholesale prices rose 0.9% in July, more than expected
Why?

The important thing is funding the state, not making a personal sacrifice. The economy is based on value, not pain.

FredPret··on Wholesale prices rose 0.9% in July, more than expected
Argue for higher tax rates and more enforcement all you want, but the fact is that the current setup results in a situation where the bulk of actual taxes collected come from the rich.

This situation has persisted for as many decades as I've been able to find data for.

Here's a quote from my source: "The top 1 percent earned 22.4 percent of total AGI and paid 40.4 percent of all federal income taxes.

In all, the top 1 percent of taxpayers accounted for more income taxes paid than the bottom 90 percent combined."

And we haven't even talked about the avalanche of payroll and sales taxes generated by the businesses they run.

FredPret··on Kodak has no plans to cease, go out of business, or file for bankruptcy
They've been a marginal concern for years now, though there still seems to be plenty of revenue to work with:

http://valustox.com/KODK

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