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Futurebot

5,959 karma · joined April 6, 2012

Soundcloud: https://soundcloud.com/opir
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Futurebot··on Reforms to Ease Students’ Stress Divide a New Jersey School District
Both groups are acting rationally, but their behaviors are based on different premises. The "relax" group values reducing the risk of suicide, burnout, and future psychological problems. The "push harder" group is responding to the (completely real) pressures to compete that get more serious all the time, pressures that tell them their children will become part of the precarious segment of society if they don't. The former group "should" be listened to on a health basis, but their ideas suffer from a collective action problem, so the latter group is probably going to win out one way or another (even if things like homework or whatever gets banned, they can always step up things like tutoring or extracurriculars outside school.)

The latter is willing to chance suicide or psychological problems in exchange for the reduced likelihood of future career failure. I think the way to deal with a Gordian knot like this is to convince everyone that it's actually pro-career success to have people step back, pursue creative activities, etc. Convince them that:

- Napping is a productivity booster (recent article on HN talked about this one.)

- Many jobs in the future will require creativity, not just memorization or technical skills (personal chefs, gardeners, high-end nannies, pilots, publicists/marketers, artists, entrepreneurs, and tutors as Tyler Cowen and others have suggested.)

- Lack of exposure to "play" ideas will limit possible inputs that could help with everything from game and UI design to business strategies. We're in a highly specialized society, but cross-disciplinarity is becoming more important every day.

- Many jobs of the future will require both technical and social skills (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-best-jobs-now-requir...)

The single minded focus on pure academics is missing the bigger picture. The "push harders" need to learn that.

Futurebot··on How to get rich in tech
The thing that matters with rents is your income vs. the rising rent. I'm not sure how comparing to London or Geneva means anything. All that matters is "your income vs. rising San Fransisco rents" if that's where you live, and this discussion mainly centered around the US. For job-creating areas, that's a few major metros, by and large.

The 99 week extension ended, and it differs by region anyway:

"Workers in most states are eligible for up to 26 weeks of benefits from the regular state-funded unemployment compensation program, although ten states provide fewer weeks and two provide more. " That's nothing.

http://www.cbpp.org/research/economy/policy-basics-how-many-...

The maximum amount in California is $450 per week, not even enough to pay the median rent for a studio: ($2,722 in August 2015.) Start adding in food and bills, and it's a laugh.

The many sources I've read support the medical bankruptcy stats. I'm aware of the criticisms, but they don't seem to diminish the core case much at all. Other developed countries have medical bankruptcy, but nothing like the US.

Futurebot··on How to get rich in tech
If you live in one of the major metros where the jobs are, your rent may be very high (http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/11/why-its-...), which means that your runway that sounds like a lot isn't, /especially/ if you have to deal with an extended job search. This is obviously less of an issue for many decent or better developers in the current market, but this can't necessarily be said of adjacent positions.

Unemployment benefits in the US are both incredibly stingy and time-limited.

Another thing is that there is a strata of people who fall into the donut hole: they make too much to get ACA subsidies, and too little to get a reasonable plan (http://kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/the-coverage-gap-un...) If you get stuck with a major condition in that situation, you're going to be in a lot of trouble, not to mention that even the insured may not have everything covered. Medical bankruptcies are the most common in the US still: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100840148

"Even outside of bankruptcy, about 56 million adults—more than 20 percent of the population between the ages of 19 and 64—will still struggle with health-care-related bills this year, according to NerdWallet Health.

And if you think only Americans without health insurance face financial troubles, think again. NerdWallet estimates nearly 10 million adults with year-round health-insurance coverage will still accumulate medical bills that they can't pay off this year."

So yes, in the US, you absolutely need your own safety net.

Futurebot··on How to get rich in tech
I did this for several years, and it didn't give me anything near VP-at-Google skills, maybe "VP-at-so-so-company" skills. I was in charge of development, systems administration / DevOps, SEO (got multiple things to the top of Google), some management (of non-technical freelancers, because I was the only full-time technical person), and a variety of other "fill in the holes" jobs. This was after multiple stints at other small companies (but not 5 full-time people small.)

I got some things out of of it, no question, but absolutely nothing compared to what I would have gotten at a high-quality company that had reasonable hours, plenty of capital, very ambitious people (no one who worked there is anywhere near technology now - most are 9-5 or non-technical consultants), interesting technology, etc. The most important thing I got was "be incredibly careful about who you work for and what promises you choose to believe", but saying to people "don't be naive / foolish" is easier to say than it is to evaluate the intentions and capabilities of founders / companies. The second most important thing would be the ability to say "I've been through the wringer before."

The quality of companies varies wildly, and the wrong environment will do very little for you. Some wind up at ones near the bottom of the quality pile and having the ability to recognize that you're at one isn't a given.

Futurebot··on The Master’s as the New Bachelor’s (2011)
This is something that's doubly frustrating for dedicated autodidacts. For some areas, once you start diving into them (and giving up all of your free time in the process to make any progress), you realize just how much more time is necessary to get to the "baseline" / "start of the art / be able to make a useful contribution (and how useful it is to be in an immersive learning environment surrounded by people you can collaborate with.)

You can easily hit a wall even with all the books and MOOCs at your disposal, due to having to do all your learning after work when you're tired or on weekends.

To have to go into debt in order to work on interesting things is unfortunate; just how many people who could have made interesting contributions in a variety of areas never do so because of that?

Studying yourself into web dev and such is eminently possible, but if you want to do, for example, deep learning work at even one-half the Richard Socher-level, you almost surely need to go for an advanced degree. It might be different if you're a superhuman autodidact rather than just a "standard" one, but there are a lot more of the latter (a set that I include myself in) than the former.

Futurebot··on The Master’s as the New Bachelor’s (2011)
Definitely an underappreciated part of having a prestigious degree(s). I've written about it elsewhere with regards to having no degree vs having one, but it applies to MS vs BS and standard state school vs top-tier just as well.

It's another form of social proof, and it affects not just whether or not you get hired, but how people view you, speak to you, and whether / how much they listen to or consider your opinion. Of course, many people don't give degrees a second thought, but for every one of those, there are plenty who do.

Futurebot··on How to get rich in tech
"And if you go in with this mentality, even when startups fail, you succeed. If you put five years into building a company and team, you will end up with a great network of talented and motivated people, lots of first-hand experience, and often some management experience as well. Worst case, your next step could be going into Google at the VP level it would’ve taken you 15 years to get to joining out of college to “inject some startup DNA,” and catch up on salary within a few years. Unless this internet thing is a fad, that job will always be there for you."

This advice is quite precise about where it applies. If you're at a startup that is undercapitalized, working you 12-16 hours a day, 7 days a week, with poor management and no opportunities for anything but building and maintenance, you can actually wind up worse off than when you went in: no built-up network and nothing that would make you "VP at Google" material, and in the case of startups doing pay cuts (in an environment of ever-rising rents), even less money than when you started(!) He is referring to working at "decent or better" startups; problem is, you may not know you're not working at one of those until you actually work at another one.

The rest of his advice is probably worth listening to, but the above part should be considered very carefully.

Futurebot··on How to get rich in tech, guaranteed
"And if you go in with this mentality, even when startups fail, you succeed. If you put five years into building a company and team, you will end up with a great network of talented and motivated people, lots of first-hand experience, and often some management experience as well. Worst case, your next step could be going into Google at the VP level it would’ve taken you 15 years to get to joining out of college to “inject some startup DNA,” and catch up on salary within a few years. Unless this internet thing is a fad, that job will always be there for you."

This advice is quite precise about where it applies. If you're at a startup that is undercapitalized, working you 12-16 hours a day, 7 days a week, with poor management and no opportunities for anything but building and maintenance, you can actually wind up worse off than when you went in: no built-up network and nothing that would make you "VP at Google" material, and in the case of startups doing pay cuts (in an environment of ever-rising rents), even less money than when you started(!) He is referring to working at "decent or better" startups; problem is, you may not know you're not working at one of those until you actually work at another one.

The rest of his advice is probably worth listening to, but the above part should be considered very carefully.

Futurebot··on Kindergarten Has Become the New First Grade
I don't agree with your last paragraph, as I have different values, but as far as your first one: this is the essence of 'hypercompetition', and it's bound up with our winner-take-all system / superstar effect.

Anyone who hasn't read "Twilight of the Elites" and "Average is Over" should do so.

Winner-take-all society: http://prospect.org/article/talent-and-winner-take-all-socie...

The superstar effect: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/26/business/26excerpt.html?_r...

Non-stop retraining: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/22/business/to-stay-relevant-...

My personal preference would be to accept this as the new reality and give better societal supports to allow people to compete (as Twilight of the Elites makes clear, you need more equality of outcome to enable equality of opportunity vis a vis education, tutors, etc.) like debt-free college and retraining programs, GBI, a more comprehensive unemployment system, etc. Rather than trying to roll the clock back, we should instead embrace it and allow people who want to be part of the race to have the tools to compete, while allowing those who would rather not to step away without starving and becoming homeless.

Futurebot··on Soundproofing for New York Noise
No clue at all.
Futurebot··on Soundproofing for New York Noise
The buildings I've lived in were built in: 1910 (Lower East Side), 1920 (Yorkville), 1915 (Kensington), 1928 (Brighton Beach), and 1910 (Upper East Side), and all of them were awfully thin. Maybe we have different definitions of paper thin, but I have always been able to hear my neighbors: walking, talking, playing music, taking a shower, or watching TV.
Futurebot··on Soundproofing for New York Noise
Yup. Doesn't seem to stop people. They just take the security deposit hit and move on.
Futurebot··on Soundproofing for New York Noise
There are two things. One, many of the steam units have a knob which doesn't actually work (landlords seal/paint it to the point that you cannot move it.) One of the apartments I grew up in in Brooklyn had one of these "units", and according to my grandmother, the knob hadn't worked in many decades (she started living in that apartment in ~1930.) How this came to be is definitely a mystery.

Two, some steam apartments don't have a unit at all, just a pipe from floor to ceiling. Older tenements feature these (the one I'm living in now has one, for example.) If you want to adjust the temperature with this, your only choices are A/C or the window. These apartments were just built this way, and this was likely the cheapest/only tech available at the time.

Futurebot··on Soundproofing for New York Noise
I've used ear plugs for a long time; they really help. My current favorites are the Moldex 6604 Sparkplugs. Even as a side-sleeper, they work great for me.
Futurebot··on Soundproofing for New York Noise
Yup. Another thing is that many older NYC apartment buildings are built with paper thin walls/floors, which obviously has no easy fix. Another issue, especially for people who are just "passing through" the city is a lack of concern for others since they aren't around long. My current building, for example, has people moving in an out every 4-6 months. Hard for many to care when they view their apartment as a glorified hotel room.

The choices in these cases are passive-aggressive notes in the lobby, or direct confrontation at 3AM when the bass is pumping, which is what it usually comes down to, unfortunately.

Futurebot··on U.S. states pass laws backing Uber's view of drivers as contractors
I agree completely. Tuition free higher education with living stipends a la Denmark is a way to get there.
Futurebot··on After Capitalism?
Arts, sports, and leisure are the most likely candidates. People will both create and enjoy code, music, drawing, digital art, memes, funny cat gifs, endless videos, etc. Sports probably need no additional explanation. Leisure will mean a great deal more time spent out in nature, walking city streets, focusing on relationships, etc.

Imagining this future doesn't seem too outre.

Futurebot··on U.S. states pass laws backing Uber's view of drivers as contractors
This is one reason some have called for a third category of worker:

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/07/uber-economy-re...

Germany has one already: http://www.npr.org/2015/06/26/417675866/service-jobs-like-ub...

Of course, this would be much less of an issue if we had a guaranteed income, or even a lesser version of it for being between jobs; something like unemployment insurance, but only for people in this new category (which would have much less stringent requirements.) A universal health care system would also lessen their burden; ACA / Freelancer Union rates are still bananas expensive.

If we accepted that modern workers that flit from job to job and project to project are here to stay and gave them a real safety net without all the nasty ideological baggage, we could come closer to achieving the dream of the fluid, frictionless, task-oriented labor force that some economists have thought we should have for decades. Instead we have the Precariat.

Futurebot··on Seattle’s micro-housing boom offers an affordable alternative
As someone who lives in an actual 1900s tenement that costs twice what these do without any of the amenities, I'd be happy to live in one of those for $1000/month if they were in Lower Manhattan or West Brooklyn.

For those who value location and low cost, these would be amazing. For reference, the micro-apartment experiment we have here:

"Enter My Micro NY, the city's first micro-apartment complex, at 335 East 27th Street, with 55 units ranging from 260 to 360 square feet. The building will begin leasing studios this summer for around $2,000 to $3,000 a month"

The same price as non-microapartments in the studio-1BR range.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/22/realestate/micro-apartment...

Futurebot··on MIT graduate student says income inequality is actually about housing
Rebuilds, upzoning, microapartments, public housing. The list is long:

https://medium.com/@opirmusic/fixing-the-nyc-rent-crisis-or-...

Read Matt Yglesias' "Rent is Too Damn High" book if you want a more thorough treatment the topic.

Futurebot··on MIT graduate student says income inequality is actually about housing
You're correct that "utility"-type depreciation isn't that fast when it comes to the day-to-day, but "business profits" don't typically (ever?) take that into account in the calculation. So it's really two different things. As an aside, here are the BEA's depreciation rates:

http://www.bea.gov/scb/account_articles/national/wlth2594/ta...

None of the above take into account the "utility goes to zero" fact for certain computer hardware: i.e., if a machine winds up too slow to run the latest software because of ever-increasing system requirements, the practical value of said hardware can go from "less than recently calculated resale value" to "possible resale value of raw parts" or even "zero."

Futurebot··on Ask HN: Is college even worth it if you're worth your salt as a programmer?
It depends. Can you go to a prestigious institution without going into massive debt? Then do it, very few exceptions: https://medium.com/@opirmusic/why-software-developers-should...

If you have to go into a good amount of debt or the institution is not particularly prestigious, and you already have plenty of skill/experience/connections, I'd spend time considering what exactly you expect to get out of it.

Futurebot··on MIT graduate student says income inequality is actually about housing
Vox has a much more nuanced analysis of the finding:

http://www.vox.com/2015/4/1/8320937/this-26-year-old-grad-st...

Futurebot··on A Back Door to Encryption Won't Stop Terrorists
I agree that we don't need to formulate a strategy to criticize. What I'm saying is that we're already fantastically good at that, and have articulated the negatives very well; I just don't think we've presented a credible, compelling vision that will get those in power to say "Ok, there's an alternative that might work. Let's try that instead of going down this other road that is only making people angry and/or probably won't have the desired outcomes anyway."
Futurebot··on A Back Door to Encryption Won't Stop Terrorists
I'd love to see what a detailed version of security policies and infrastructure look like in a world of backdoor-less strong encryption from Schneier, the EFF, the Hopkins crew, etc. Something that can be used to persuade, or at least influence policymakers by allowing them to see that another way is possible, one that allows security services to do their job in a way that allows them to feel that their work isn't futile, while simultaneously respecting privacy rights.

I think the need for strong encryption and no backdoors (which has Schneier explains, are always a double-edged sword) are very important and I support them, but that those on the side of it who also have in-depth knowledge about the finer details don't deign to articulate just what exactly the policy looks like without resorting to just a list of what we shouldn't do and vague allusions to "just go old-school" or "utilize human assets more."

A coherently articulated, normative counterfactual security platform would be a better place to argue from.

It's a cousin to the negative liberty arguments: they only list what not to do to in order to avoid hurting people, rather than what we can do to help them (positive liberty.)

Maybe we could frame the question as "If we let the EFF and Bruce Schneier redesign the United States security apparatus from scratch, what would it look like?"

Futurebot··on Manhattan DA calls for backdoors in all mobile operating systems
I've read the source document, and it makes a good attempt at explaining the issue in a mostly balanced way to a less-technical audience, even if it does gloss over some things. Its recommendations, though, are mostly familiar ones with familiar refutations. Here's what they're asking for:

"The federal legislation would provide in substance that any smartphone manufactured, leased, or sold in the U.S. must be able to be unlocked, or its data accessed, by the operating system designer. Compliance with such a statute would not require new technology or costly adjustments. It would require, simply, that designers and makers of operating systems not design or build them to be impregnable to lawful governmental searches."

And this is the main thing that they find frustrating:

"Case law holds almost universally that a defendant cannot be compelled (by, e.g., a grand jury subpoena or order of the court) to provide the government with her or his passcode, because such compulsion would violate the defendant’s Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination."

I was under the impression that they already have a tool to deal with this called "hold someone indefinitely until they give the password up."

Futurebot··on Homeschooled with MIT courses at 5, accepted to MIT at 15
"Having parents", "having supportive parents", "having parents with resources (that can come in multiple forms like time, knowledge, connections, and money) that they are willing and able to use on you", and "having a place that you can live in potentially rent-free whether or you're going to college, working, or need to return to if you lose your job" are things that some don't consider advantages, even though they should. Those things are springboards and safety nets that not everyone has access to.
Futurebot··on Pandora to Buy Rdio Assets for $75M, Rdio Files Ch.11, Will Shutter Service
Since there's no bulk export or migration tool, I pulled everything out of the .artists_list element from /favorites/albums/ so I can rebuild my collection elsewhere.
Futurebot··on The Tech Talent Shortage Is a Lie
Sometimes it seems like two different things get discussed when this topic comes up. On the one hand, we might have shortages of people with very specific skills in certain industries (maybe Fortran / mainframe programmers are hard to find, for example.)

On the other hand, the BLS data, various studies, and other sources like CEPR agree with him in the more general case:

http://www.cepr.net/blogs/cepr-blog/is-there-a-shortage-of-w...

http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-201508...

Futurebot··on What happens when a culture is driven by the need for money to make more money
It is overwhelming and dispiriting, and I certainly don't pretend to like it. On the one hand, there is still a good amount of quality music coming out on places like Soundcloud/Bandcamp. On the other hand, many/most of those artists are likely not making much of a living off of it, and that's sad because it means that they produce less music that we might want to listen to because they have to spend their time on other things (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/22/business/to-stay-relevant-...) like working/studying/retraining (my own extremely-niche music is/was something I chose to only do in my spare time, knowing the reality.) It also may be dissuading would-be artists from creating something in the first place, which means we're deprived of those potentially great works. Definitely a negative.

Relatedly, I sometimes wonder about how much of the compromised musical vision (AKA selling out) is actually a myth in terms of pop music itself. The counterfactual is something like: artist X, who is making some kind of music, would have made some other kind of music that they would have preferred to make (because it was more in line with their vision) if they had the economic freedom to do so. Is that really right, or are they 'making' what they would have made anyway? I quote 'making' because of the number of non-music writing pop stars (the aforementioned four guys with all the top 40 hits who are the ones actually writing the songs) is larger than many might imagine. Are those pop stars really just 'celebrities who specialized in music', rather than 'musicians who compromised their visions'? Tool managed to break through the niche->pop barrier in the 1990s despite their decidedly non-mainstream, aurally challenging (and compelling) sound, but does anyone believe there are little Tools just hiding inside of Justin Timberlake, let's say? If someone like that becomes elevator muzak, is that really a 'sellout' when it's designed that way from the outset? This one is hard to disentangle.

Maybe there's another way to frame it. Maybe the problem isn't 'selling out', per se, but that niche audiences, unless you are somehow able to get to the "100 really super duper true fans" or its equivalent, just don't pay the bills very well. We have your Kickstarter and we have Patreon, and we have all that, but does that sustain the number of potential artists - some of whom may create incredible works - in the modern economy? Did it ever? (I'm sure some would-be musicians starved during the actual patron eras, too.)

The Superstar effect (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/23/business/winners-take-all-..., http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2010/09/win...) is real and cross-cuts industries; an economy-wide phenomenon. I think it's going to be difficult for these platforms to serve as a real counterweight to that, as much as I'd really like them to, because they're swamped by much larger forces. We've democratized distribution, and some of the platforms /have/ widened the economic net a bit, and I'm glad about that, but the forces are larger than I think they'll ever be able to handle, at least in the US.

That brings us to the next question: is the story the same in still relatively-low-cost-of-living Berlin (where a Kickstarter/Patreon might actually be able to replace serving coffee, giving the artist the ability to work on art full time), for example? This is especially important for collaborative styles of music. We can tell a starving artist "just live go somewhere cheap", but rural Minnesota is probably not going to have the kind of music scene necessary to engender the collaborative creativity / connections that you're going to get in Berlin (or once upon a time, on the Lower East Side/East Village in New York), and also have a receptive local audience interested in things like live music.

So maybe we add another qualifier: "enough to live in a collaborative, musically vibrant place." Can these platforms ever do that? I don't think by themselves they can really solve that problem. Not all, gloom, though, as I think there might be external solutions worth entertaining:

1) Artist subsidies or tax credits. Hate this one, and lots of other people like do too, as incentives and administration are mess, but worth mentioning since I've seen it proffered before.

2) GBI. Possible superb fix, not going to happen any time soon.

3) Massive development leading to lower rents in desirable areas, so the next wave of those to be pushed out could stay (Ridgewood, Queens is a good example of cheap and artist friendly now, but possibly at risk in 5-10 years.) I wrote a whole post on this (https://medium.com/@opirmusic/fixing-the-nyc-rent-crisis-or-...) Most powerful one, in my opinion.

4) Artist housing: something that has been tried before, and I think is worth considering again. Administration would be the tricky part, but it at least seems possible.

5) Generalized cheap co-housing with shared amenities. I know some companies are working on this, but it remains to be seen if they can make the numbers work in an NYC or an SF. I really like this one, and I hope someone makes it work.

Finally, I'd also add that my original reply was generalized to the job market as a whole; it applies just as much to your C++ hacker who would rather be making interactive art rather than writing device drivers, or to a marketer that is actually good at what they do and would rather being working in politics or something, but takes a job at an ad agency helping to advertise soft drinks to keep their little rat body from going overboard.

To use an example in technology: I understand the appeal of working on complicated distributed setups, using cool algorithms at scale, etc., but how many people really want to work on "thinking about how to make people click ads", and how many are there because that's how you make good money (and by extension, achieve financial safety and independence)?

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