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NickM

2,672 karma · joined May 4, 2009

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NickM··on Tesla races past $100B in market valuation
In theory yeah it shouldn't be that bad. In practice there are many different third-party charge providers, and they all have their own RFID cards you have to order in advance after setting up accounts and adding payment methods and whatnot. Or if you don't have the special RFID card that matches the station you want to charge at, you might be able to download an app and set up an account on your phone, but a lot of charging station apps are buggy and hard to use. Many of these third-party charging stations are also unreliable, or only have one or two plugs which may be occupied when you show up. In practice the whole third-party charging ecosystem is just a mess and the Supercharger network has none of these problems.
NickM··on What's the longest distance that can be traveled by using free transportation?
If you read the original question on the linked page, it specifically rules out self-powered transportation.
NickM··on Evaluating State and Local Business Tax Incentives [pdf]
So to allow this regulatory race to the bottom within a country or a market makes no sense to me at all. Only if the firm would move abroad would there be a net loss.

I think part of the trouble is that tax rates are very different across different states. If the US were to ban all state and local tax incentives, then that would very much hurt high-tax states, as they'd then have fewer tools left to compete with low-tax states in attracting businesses.

NickM··on Whatever happened to the noble art of the manly weep?
It seems like we generally agree. I am a man and I do consider myself a feminist. My intent was not an all to criticize feminism, but rather to lament how much of an “us vs them” issue that feminism has become for many feminists and many non-feminists alike.
NickM··on Whatever happened to the noble art of the manly weep?
I didn’t think this particular piece was combative at all; I was just commenting more generally on the state of society. I actually thought this piece gave a really good supporting example of the point I was trying to make in my comment.
NickM··on Whatever happened to the noble art of the manly weep?
It's sad to me that the social discourse on gender has become so combative. I think many people on all sides of the debate feel like feminism is a zero-sum movement, where the way to raise women up is to tear men down.

In practice, I feel like gender inequality can hurt both men and women in different ways. More gender equality allows everyone more freedom to choose their own path in life and express their true selves without being forced into a set of stereotypical molds.

NickM··on Benjamin Libet's argument against free will is being questioned
Yeah it always seemed like it a shaky argument to me too. Even if people were unable to accurately perceive the timing of their own decisions, that doesn't seem to preclude the idea that people are still consciously making those decisions themselves....
NickM··on Benjamin Libet's argument against free will is being questioned
If the whole argument was based on an experimental result, and that experiment has now been found to be fundamentally flawed and the results of the experiment invalidated, then it seems entirely fine and rational to say that the argument has been debunked.
NickM··on Aviation Is on a Low-Carbon Flight Path
That's not even the most efficient $/ton offsets that are available. There are non-profits like Cool Earth that are using cleverer approaches to get things down into the vicinity of $1/ton.
NickM··on Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming
Every problem exists until it doesn't. Saying that a problem has not yet been solved and therefore cannot be solved is a fallacy.

It's not a question of whether the human race can solve this problem, it's a question of whether we will solve it. There are no fundamental physical or technological limitations that prevent us from running the world on 100% clean energy, it's just a matter of overcoming our species' collective political apathy on this issue...and the kind of blind pessimism you're expressing tends to lead to more apathy, not progress.

NickM··on Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming
I would say CR doesn't back up the "SUVs are safer" argument; they say SUVs are safer in head-on collisions with smaller vehicles, but don't really indicate whether they're more or less safe overall.
NickM··on Ask HN: Have you ever seen Scrum work well?
Generally it's the latter, and people are just forced to use it. However, I have made an honest effort to try and see the value in it, but the whole concept of trying to squeeze everything into artificial scheduling boundaries via sprints just feels very weird to me. Invariably projects just end up spilling over from sprint to sprint, because even if you manage to break things up into small enough chunks to do a meaningful piece of a project inside of a sprint, then you still end up with leftover time at the end...and then of course you're not going to sit around doing nothing, but rather you'll go ahead and get started on the next sprint's work in advance.

So the ultimate outcome is that you have to follow a certain specific set of prescribed meetings and rituals every X weeks when the current sprint ends or the next sprint is starting, but the actual work that's happening rarely seems to follow a schedule that has anything to do with the sprint cadence.

NickM··on Ranked-choice voting is on the ballot in New York City
In this election, the spoiler candidate was the Republican. If the Republican hadn't run, the Democrat would've beaten the Progressive, and the majority of voters would've preferred that outcome (including the majority of Republican voters who assumedly thought that their honest rankings would be properly reflected in the election result).

It's a confusing example because we're used to spoiler candidates coming from third parties, but the politics in Vermont are a little bit unusual.

NickM··on Ranked-choice voting is on the ballot in New York City
Regardless of whether anyone actually votes strategically in practice though, it seems pretty understandable that people would feel disillusioned when they see an outcome like this. Most IRV supporters say "you can honestly rank your preferences among all candidates without worrying about throwing away your vote"...and then the Republicans in that election ranked their preferences honestly, and it turns out they threw away their votes.

As you point out, it's harder to predict whether you're throwing away your vote because it's harder to reason through the effects, but I think that's just going to make even people unhappier with IRV and generate even worse election outcomes. At least in FPTP you can usually tell what the best strategy is in advance, so if you throw away your vote you only have yourself to blame.

NickM··on Ranked-choice voting is on the ballot in New York City
I don't live in Burlington so I may not have as much background on this as a native would, but my impression is that the Burlington election showed that strategic voting it's still a problem with IRV, contrary to what its supporters generally claim. The Republican voters would have preferred that the Democrat won over the Progressive, and they could have caused that outcome by dishonestly ranking the Democrat higher on their ballots. Thus, the purported benefit of IRV of allowing you to honestly vote for your favorite candidate first while still taking your second choice into account was discredited.
NickM··on Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on?
Not a bad suggestion, but are the optics really that much better? Definitely gives me a dystopian vibe of "paying humans pennies to help AI automate away what few other jobs they have left to them".
NickM··on Ranked-choice voting is on the ballot in New York City
IRV isn't perfect, but it's a huge improvement over the current state of affairs.

I disagree. In theory, yes it's an improvement, but it still doesn't eliminate the spoiler effect, and in practice it's much harder to understand why it produces the election results that it generates.

I think most people who study this topic would agree that approval voting is better than IRV. Many people then go on to say "but at least IRV is better than FPTP". My concern is that IRV is effectively worse than FPTP, because it may poison people's enthusiasm for alternative voting systems when they see the strange outcomes it sometimes yields.

I don't think my fear is just theoretical either, as this has already happened before when the 2009 Burlington IRV election produced a strange outcome, and they subsequently switched back to FPTP.

NickM··on Ranked-choice voting is on the ballot in New York City
This may be too cynical, but I have to wonder if it's because of its flaws that the two parties in power are allowing RCV to gain ground. RCV eliminates the spoiler effect for non-competitive third-party candidates, but conveniently fails to do so when third parties start to become threatening.

Approval voting, on the other hand, always allows people to show support to a third-party candidate without risking throwing away their vote....

NickM··on Ranked-choice voting is on the ballot in New York City
But IRV still does allow you to throw your vote away. Once third parties become competitive, the best strategy in IRV regresses back to "your first choice vote should be whichever of the two most viable candidates you prefer".

IRV solves the problem of people irrationally throwing their votes away on candidates who have no chance of winning, but it absolutely still allows competitive third-party candidates to spoil an election. This is not just theoretical, it happened in Burlington in their 2009 mayoral election, which subsequently resulted in IRV being repealed there.

NickM··on How much does air pollution cost the U.S.?
Well okay, so I'm getting a bit off-topic with the whole "food is inefficient" argument, but if you look at the efficiency of photosynthesis it only harvests about 3%-6% of the light energy hitting the plant. A lot of that energy then goes to growing other parts of the plant that don't contribute to its caloric content (stems, roots, etc., or in the case of fruit, the entire rest of the plant besides the fruit). To get a ballpark idea of the numbers here, even biofuels have been found to be only about 0.3% efficient at converting sunlight to chemical energy, compared to solar panels which can typically harvest about 10% of the incoming sunlight into electrical energy. Plants are just not that efficient in general.

But efficiency of converting sunlight into energy isn't really what this argument is about, since we're more concerned with the CO2 output than the energy efficiency. The efficiency of human muscles factors in though, as it is only around 20%, compared to electric motors and batteries that are over 90% efficient. Regenerative braking is a big win for the electric car too, since it reduces the impact of the car's higher mass a lot. And when you look at the CO2 per calorie emitted by coal (and of course the US grid emissions are much better than this since we use many other better energy sources than coal), you get about 1.1g per calorie for coal compared to about 4.8g per calorie for fruit. So in a carbon emissions sense, food can also be much less efficient than electricity, even when that electricity comes from fossil fuels.

No single one of these factors is enough to tip the scales on its own, and of course the numbers can skew either way depending on what kind of food you eat, what kind of electricity you use, and many other factors. But I don't think the comparison is a totally crazy one.

NickM··on Americans Are Using Less Steel, Paper, Fertilizer, and Energy
You can raise them with technology or population growth, but there again, you're bumping up against ecological constraints.

Population growth, yes, but technology? Why can't technology continue to improve in terms of efficiency and environmental impact as well as productivity?

NickM··on How much does air pollution cost the U.S.?
Food in general is a massively inefficient way to convert solar energy into muscular exertion. If you compare all the steps that occur from farming all the way to getting the food on your table, and then add in how inefficient our bodies are at converting food energy into mechanical energy, the results of the comparison becomes a lot less surprising. Electrical transmission, batteries, and electric motors are all very efficient by comparison.
NickM··on How much does air pollution cost the U.S.?
Oh my gosh, wow, what a strange coincidence! I totally did not notice that I was replying to the same person who wrote that post. Small world :)

And yeah, I wasn't necessarily reading too much into the comparison since of course there are so many different factors that can tilt the numbers different ways, but I found it very thought-provoking regardless. Great point about e-bikes too.

NickM··on How much does air pollution cost the U.S.?
I've seen compelling arguments that driving a Model 3 actually even has lower average CO2 emissions per mile than riding a bike, since riding a bike requires eating extra calories to power it, and food has a substantial carbon footprint.

Depends on the type of food you're eating, your local electricity grid, and many other factors of course. And obviously this ignores both manufacturing costs and the physical and psychological benefits to biking, so I'm not saying everyone should ditch biking, but it's an interesting comparison.

https://twitter.com/Robotbeat/status/1102249291568029696

NickM··on Tesla Software Version 10.0
Yes, it is only enabled while the car is parked.
NickM··on The Octopus: An Alien Among Us
A perfect brain simulator could answer many questions, but it could not answer the hard problem of consciousness. Science is all about objectivity, but there's an element of consciousness that is inherently subjective, and that part - the part the hard problem deals with - is not objectively measurable.
NickM··on Estimates that mineral levels in vegetables have dropped by up to 90% since 1914
Something that has puzzled me recently: how is anyone supposed to get the daily recommended amount of potassium? If you look at foods like bananas that are supposed to be good sources of it, you still need to eat something like eleven bananas a day to get enough (according to US recommended daily intakes, anyway). At least with the minerals mentioned in this posting, you can fall back on supplements if you need to...but if you try to buy potassium supplements, the max dosage you can get over the counter is 99mg, which is only about 3% of the daily recommended intake. WTF?
NickM··on When the A.I. Professor Leaves, Students Suffer, Study Says
From the article:

At Carnegie Mellon, 17 professors, all of them tenured, have moved into industry

Not sure about other universities, but it doesn’t sound like tenure made much difference at CMU.

NickM··on Tesla’s Autopilot found partly to blame for 2018 crash on the 405
it is an apples-to-oranges comparison because AP is only used on highways where traffic incidents are already far less common per mile driven.

True, and that kind of flawed argument bugs me. However, there is also data that showed that accident rates went down significantly on the same cars after Tesla first enabled autopilot via a software update. This is much more compelling to me; if the same people driving the same cars in the same areas became less likely to get into an accident as soon as autopilot became available, then I don't see how you can really argue that the feature is not beneficial to safety.

NickM··on GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles
Admittedly it is still a small compromise, but I’ve done 8 hour road trips in my Tesla to go snowboarding in Vermont and having to stop and charge adds under an hour to the trip. The Volt does seem like a great car, but to me it’s not worth the maintenance/space/reliability compromise of a gas engine in exchange for not having to take a relaxing break every few hours when I’m road tripping; obviously my values may be different but to me the extra time spent feels pretty inconsequential in the grand scheme of things.
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