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NickM

2,672 karma · joined May 4, 2009

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NickM··on Profits are driving inflation. When will politicians and the BoE admit it?
Okay, so let's set consolidation aside, since I agree that's a real problem in some sectors.

took advantage of...the political narrative...to raise prices for more profit

I genuinely don't understand why so many people think this matters. What do you think would have happened if companies had decided to raise prices without having an "excuse" like this?

Prices aren't kept under control by consumer outrage; we all may be mad about food prices, but we all still have to eat anyway. Yes companies are bragging about being able to raise prices, but it's not "because they can", it's because there's a supply/demand mismatch.

The cause of that mismatch is complicated and varies by market sector, but this isn't some case of like, they couldn't raise prices in the past because people would get too mad at them, but now they've finally figured out how to fool everyone into not getting mad. It's clearly a much more nuanced situation we're in, no?

NickM··on The world’s empty office buildings have become a debt time bomb
Deducting losses doesn't make losses profitable, it just eases the sting of the loss a little bit.

If you lose $100, and you get to deduct that $100 loss, then that saves you the taxes on $100, but unless the marginal tax rate is somehow greater than 100% then you have still lost money.

NickM··on Rivian embraces Tesla's charging standard for EVs
That doesn’t make any sense to me. The amount of fuel a trench can hold is its volume, not its area.
NickM··on Rivian embraces Tesla's charging standard for EVs
DC charging stations sometimes have batteries on site so that they can charge up from the grid and then deliver bursts of power from the batteries during charging. Apparently this is often worth it to avoid the high demand fees that utilities charge when you draw a lot of power at once.

I assume this will become more ubiquitous as charging speeds continue to increase.

(You're right that a megawatt is a high power draw in the context of normal household electricity usage, but keep in mind that if you can pump ten gallons of gas in a minute you're effectively drawing the equivalent of something like 20MW, so in the context of vehicle refueling it's not so crazy.)

NickM··on 460-foot “battery tanker” set to ship electrons by 2026
I think most people just don’t realize that when you charge a battery you’re not literally just filling it up with electrons.
NickM··on Evidence that the shingles vaccine prevents a good chunk of dementia cases
a doctor working on a cure and vaccine for HSV1/2

Can you share more information on this? Who is this doctor you're referring to?

NickM··on Ask HN: Has anyone switched from a professional job to a more manual one?
Sounds like everything ended up great for your cousin, but in case he'd still like to be able to use a screen occasionally, I wonder if something like this might help: https://www.sunvisiondisplay.com/reflective-lcd-monitor

I have no personal experience or affiliation with that company, but I read about them the other day and it seems like a cool concept that could help a lot of people that have issues with normal LCD screens.

NickM··on Ketamine no better than placebo at alleviating depression, unusual trial finds
That study found a small effect size compared to placebo, and a large placebo response.

That seems consistent with OP's comment of "SSRIs...mostly don't differ from placebo" (emph added).

Also not addressed in the paper is the fact that SSRIs and SNRIs have well-known and pronounced side effects, with make it questionable whether double-blind studies are really fully blinded.

NickM··on Coinbase secures Bermuda licence
Stock shares are an investment because the stock market is a positive sum game in the long run. Yes there are risks but the returns produced by the market are due to actual value being generated in the form of goods and services.

Investing in Bitcoin is like investing in shares of a company that produces nothing, and which only is able to fund its continued operations by continuing to issue and sell more shares once every ten minutes. Investing in a real compay that worked that way would be considered crazy, but somehow it’s supposed to be different because it’s decentralized. The financial implications are the same though; it’s a negative sum game instead of a positive sum game.

That’s why it’s more like gambling than an investment. The amount of money that comes back out is always going to be less than the amount that goes in, in the end.

NickM··on We’ve all been way too accepting of inflation
This take seems ignorant of basic economics. Profits are up because of supply constraints leading to a supply/demand mismatch; blaming it on consumers “passively accepting” price increases is just as ridiculous as calling it “corporate greed”.
NickM··on Vast new stores of water reported on the moon
That seems like a bizarre take. Even with efficient fully reusable rockets, surely desalination will still be much cheaper than mining water from asteroids and bringing it back to Earth?

And sure, maybe bringing huge amounts of rare earth metals back might reduce the price a bit, but to the point where rare earth elements are cheaper per mass unit than water?

NickM··on Even when we know they’re “fake,” placebos can tame our emotional distress
I have read this book, and can confirm, it is extremely interesting and pretty damning.

I'm frankly surprised it hasn't had more of an impact; it really does seem like SSRIs are causing a lot of harm to a lot of people in the form of side effects, and the scientific evidence seems to point strongly toward them being no better than any other active placebo. Yet, they continue to be prescribed in ever-increasing numbers.

NickM··on NPR quits Twitter after being labeled as 'state-affiliated media'
Twitter's own definition of "state-affiliated media" reads as follows:

State-affiliated media is defined as outlets where the state exercises control over editorial content through financial resources, direct or indirect political pressures, and/or control over production and distribution.

By this definition, NPR is not state-affiliated.

NickM··on The Real-World Costs of the Digital Race for Bitcoin
It sounds like you might be more familiar with the details of the situation than I am, but I'm curious how you would explain the results of this study: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3779720

If the Bitcoin miners in upstate NY are just using generation capacity that would otherwise go unused, why does their presence seem to be having such a dramatic effect on local energy prices?

NickM··on The Real-World Costs of the Digital Race for Bitcoin
I don't think it's as simple as "just tweak the economics"; in places like upstate NY, there are very cheap electricity prices due to abundant hydro resources, so there are some big crypto mining operations that have set up shop to exploit that.

But, of course, when demand goes up, prices go up for everyone; more demand isn't going to lead to the creation of more natural resources, so the benefits of cheap hydro are limited, and usage of them is a zero-sum game. Power companies have no incentives to discourage crypto miners, because obviously increased demand leads to more profits for them, while meanwhile the externalized costs are being paid largely by households and small local businesses.

You could make miners pay more for electricity, but unless you charge them so much that it's no longer profitable and they go away, they're still going to be using that electricity, to the detriment of everyone else in the area. Better to just ban them entirely, IMO, but it's pretty hard for politicians to just unilaterally kill off entire businesses, even bad ones like these.

NickM··on The Real-World Costs of the Digital Race for Bitcoin
The article talks about how the increased demand for electricity raises prices, and the costs are then passed on to consumers. For anyone looking for more data on this, this UC Berkeley study from a couple of years ago analyzed the situation in upstate NY:

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3779720

tl;dr: they found that the increased electricity rates costs households and small businesses in the area hundreds of millions of dollars per year.

NickM··on When did New York start building slowly?
Reminds me of the situation with intercity rail in New York state. It was faster to take a train between Buffalo and NYC in 1890 than it is today.

In 2009, NY started working on a high-speed rail study, which finally completed last month after 14 years. Now, the completed version of the study recommends a 25-year project that will increase train speed from 80MPH to...wait for it...90MPH.

Insanity.

NickM··on Unchecked corporate pricing power is a factor in US inflation
An item that costs $1, costs $2 when you double the amount money for the same amount of assets.

This is a common misconception. One big reason it's not true is because the vast majority of the wealth in the economy is stored in assets other than money (real property, stock, bonds, etc.), so doubling the money supply is very different from doubling the amount of wealth everyone has.

Now I imagine some might still be skeptical, but luckily this has been studied, and there are metrics like M2 that represent money supply. If you look at a graph of M2 vs inflation, they look pretty independent, and indeed studies have failed to find any statistically significant correlation between the two.

NickM··on Emulating Pokemon Emerald on GPT-4
I’m really not so sure. Maybe some will, but the overwhelming majority of people will not want to dedicate time and energy to learning a craft that is completely futile in the end.

By your logic, nobody would ever want to take up running as a hobby either, since no human could ever run as fast as a cheetah.

Chess is still popular, despite AI being able to defeat the best humans.

NickM··on Launch HN: Electric Air (YC W23) – Heat pump sold directly to homeowners
How did you replace your radiators? Did you have to install ducts, or did you find a cost-effective way to have a heat pump heat the water for your radiator system?

Good ways to upgrade homes that use radiators to use heat pump heating seems like a big gap in the market right now (though, not sure if this is just a market problem or a gap in the technology, since my understanding is that radiators need higher temperatures than forced air systems).

NickM··on Fake sugars sneak into foods and disrupt metabolic health
I don't know if this is true of all types of fake sugar, but I've found that I can easily taste the difference in many cases, even when I'm not expecting it or looking for it.

Like the article says, it's often with food where I wouldn't expect to find artificial sweeteners, but there's a very distinctly odd, kind of sickly sweet taste that I'll notice sometimes; whenever I do, I check the ingredients label and always find fake sugar on the list.

NickM··on Effects of Latent Toxoplasmosis on Political Beliefs and Values
Suppose this is accurate; how difficult/expensive is it to get tested for this, and if you have it, is there a cure?

Regardless of the effects it may or may not have on the brain, the paper mentions that "the differences might be side-effects of long-term mild inflammatory reaction", and for general health reasons I'd certainly prefer not to have permanent long-term mild inflammation.

NickM··on Tesla to open some superchargers to other vehicles
Hyundai is definitely doing well in terms of charging speed, but they're still a bit slower than Tesla (220 kW vs 250 kW). The marketing is confusing here, as Hyundai cars need a "350 kW charger" to achieve their max charging speed, and so they like to mention that 350 kW number, but they don't actually have the ability to draw anywhere near 350 kW of electricity.
NickM··on Tesla to open some superchargers to other vehicles
The White House is doing PR for itself first and foremost here. Tesla did a good thing as a result of laws that have been recently passed that incentivize it, and the White House wants to make sure people know it.
NickM··on Tesla to open some superchargers to other vehicles
Not to nitpick, but the law doesn't compel Tesla to open up their charging network. However, they need to open the network if they want access to the additional federal funding. Which, clearly they felt was a worthwhile trade.
NickM··on J&J can’t use bankruptcy to resolve talc-injury lawsuits, appeals court rules
They get sold off to (partially) pay back the company's creditors.
NickM··on The teen mental illness epidemic began around 2012
SSRI use has skyrocketed, and multiple meta-analyses have confirmed that they lead to an increase in suicidal thoughts and behavior when used by children and adolescents.

I don't necessarily agree with the grandparent poster's point of view, as I do think there are big societal changes leading to decreased mental health that are unrelated to the way we treat mental illness...but I do think the increase in usage of psychiatric drugs is a big problem, and may at least partly explain the increased suicide rates.

NickM··on J&J can’t use bankruptcy to resolve talc-injury lawsuits, appeals court rules
That's not how an LLC works. If you buy a house in an LLC and stop paying the mortgage, the bank still takes the house away.
NickM··on J&J can’t use bankruptcy to resolve talc-injury lawsuits, appeals court rules
If you allow the value to go to zero, shareholders will just turn a blind eye and write the investment off as a loss on their taxes.

Writing off a loss on your taxes does not cancel out that loss, it only lessens it a bit. Shareholders still lose lots of money if the company they hold shares in goes bankrupt.

Perhaps you already understood that, but your comment makes it sound like you think tax writeoffs mean that shares can go to zero and the shareholders won't ultimately lose anything. This is very much not the case.

NickM··on Electrify America “fries” EVs at charging stations
If the explanation were that simple, one would expect to see the same problem at all kinds of EV fast chargers, not just EA ones.
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