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PublicEnemy111

194 karma · joined July 23, 2013

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PublicEnemy111··on YC AI
Given the OpenAI initiative and the explicit intention of "democratizing" AI, it seems they're interested in funding application, not more research.

I think the results seen from deep learning along with recent developments in commodity hardware(GPUs have made major leaps in the past two years) to run them in a reasonable amount of time has kicked off a frenzy. IMO it does seem a little overhyped in the same way the internet was -- its a tool that enables ideas beyond our imagination, so VCs throw money at companies on a dart board hoping one takes off. In the end, the internet was a revolution but it wasn't as quick as everyone thought.

TL;DR - AI is becoming a tool that can be used by anyone.

PublicEnemy111··on Nylas Mail is now free
Buddy? Is that you?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUPDRnUWeBA

PublicEnemy111··on Cleveland Financial Stress Index: A Tool for Monitoring Financial Stability
Or the asia crisis
PublicEnemy111··on Square’s IPO Terms Put Valuation Below Latest Funding Round
Facebook's IPO flopped because of a glitch in the nasdaq where orders weren't being filled for hours and then multiple orders were being filled. It was not because investors didn't like the stock
PublicEnemy111··on Man Accused of Spoofing Some of the World's Biggest Futures Exchanges
This was a common strategy among pit traders in the 80's to place orders to entice other traders to follow, while a partner would take a large position in the opposite direction. Paul Tudor Jones was infamous for it and even laughed about it on the documentary, "Trader".

It is ethically questionable, but shouldn't be illegal. You shouldn't be managing money if your strategy is to follow bigger fish.

PublicEnemy111··on Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows
Futures were off bad before the market opened. People look at futures, think the sky is falling, flood the market with sell orders that cannot be filled until market opens, price temporarily crashes, then quants and smart money bring them back.
PublicEnemy111··on Stocks Off Sharply as Market Upheaval Grows
The US government does not lie about growth, nor does it threaten money managers with prison time for selling stocks.
PublicEnemy111··on Venezuela on Brink of Hyperinflation
This is most likely a correction, not a recession. There will be recession in markets that depend on China -- the commodity exporters like Brazil, Russia, Venezuela, etc.

The US economy is actually doing quite well. Stocks are not overvalued, commodities are cheap, jobless rate is going down, and housing is at 2004 levels. Fundamentals suggest the bull market could last at least a few more years, yet cash levels are at their highest since 2009. This correct is a great buying opportunity for anyone who has stood out of the market for the past few years.

PublicEnemy111··on Venezuela on Brink of Hyperinflation
> I guess the only difference is that in the West, the money goes mostly to the banks, which distribute it to the companies or invest it in the stock market and real estate. Consequently, the rich get richer and the poor don't see any of this money.

Poor people see it when they can still get loans because the government provides liquidity in the MBS market(specifically, subprime mortgages). Middle/Upper class see it when the government supports bond prices.

The situation in Venezuela is different because they used the state-owned oil producers to balance their deficit. My guess it that now that oil prices have tanked, they are dipping into their cash reserves to pay for the debt accumulated expanding their oil production

PublicEnemy111··on Ask HN : What side project are you working on?
I was pretty far into building a platform for investors to buy portfolio insurance, then I read about Vest this morning(http://techcrunch.com/2015/08/18/hardware-demo-day/). It sucks to see I'm not the first, but their website reveals the idea still has a long way to go before normal investors adopt it. Most investors don't feel qualified to pick stocks for their own portfolio, so how will they know what type of insurance they need? What happens when this idea scales and option prices become far more expensive as a result? Option liquidity(or lack thereof) is the reason portfolio insurance in the 80's turned to futures for protection. It's a good idea, but I suspect it will take a few iterations :)
PublicEnemy111··on China Trade Halts Locks Up $2.2 Trillion of Shares, Freezing Market
I would buy put options instead of a naked short. I know it looks like an easy trade right now, but the Chinese govt. can be unpredictable. Even if you're right over a 6 month period, you can still blow up in the short term
PublicEnemy111··on China Trade Halts Locks Up $2.2 Trillion of Shares, Freezing Market
Looks like a big move is going to happen in US markets judging by afterhours being very in the red
PublicEnemy111··on Apple threatens to remove music if bands don’t agree to new royalty policy
Isn't Google doing the same thing with the new YouTube deals?
PublicEnemy111··on The $10 Hedge Fund Supercomputer That’s Sweeping Wall Street
Is it common to use prop trading strategies for trading a personal portfolio? Or do quants almost exclusively work at hedge funds
PublicEnemy111··on Smart watches are dumb
Does anyone else have the feeling smart watches are a consumer created category? Meaning the public expected smart watches to be the next big thing after the smart phone so they became a self fulfilling prophecy. I mean, they really don't have much utility outside of fitness
PublicEnemy111··on Ask HN: Distributed transactions from mobile app to web server
Could you theoretically wait to commit database transactions until after the client has sent acknowledgement of the response?
PublicEnemy111··on Robinhood raises $50M
I was coming here to say exactly that.

from: http://techcrunch.com/2015/05/07/free-stock-trades/ > Tenev says Robinhood is charging a 3.5% fee to trade on margin in a private beta of the feature

It looks like they're planning to monetize via margin. That would work great if the economy was perpetually in an upswing... but I don't think they would have survived in the great recession.

Not to mention the irony of Robinhood making margin calls.

PublicEnemy111··on Ask HN: What's THE way to setup a OS X dev machine 2015?
I have a micro EC2 instance I do my development on. I just the repo on my mac, put the folder into sublime and I'm ready to go. There's just something about having Redis, Postgres, Nginx, gunicorn, flask, etc. running on my mac that I don't like.

If you don't want to pay $5/month for an EC2 instance, just run everything in a docker container.

PublicEnemy111··on Embarrassing code I wrote under stress at a job interview
I once had to implement a simple API during an interview. I'd done it many times, but the stress of having an interviewer breathing over my shoulder made it a painful experience and I completely flopped. Not to mention there was another interview trainee in the room.

I can write white board code with ease as those are almost always two way conversations

PublicEnemy111··on Twitter Reports Weak Earnings and the Stock Is Crashing
It is still growing, but the momentum has been slowing for over a year. I googled, "twitter user growth" and every result points to disappointing user growth
PublicEnemy111··on Twitter Reports Weak Earnings and the Stock Is Crashing
I think the writing is on the wall for Twitter. The younger generations are increasingly flocking to snapchat, yik yak, and similar apps. I never hear of anyone using it anymore(college student here). I would have stopped facebook a while back as well if I didn't use OAuth for damn near everything
PublicEnemy111··on Twitter Reports Weak Earnings and the Stock Is Crashing
The downward pressure came from Twitter missing revenue expectations, not profit.
PublicEnemy111··on Show HN: Density – The Heartbeat of a City
Bars, clubs, etc.
PublicEnemy111··on Is Slack Really Worth $2.8B? A Conversation with Stewart Butterfield
The problem with trying to kill email is that you're never going to have everyone migrate off of it. It's going to have to be some type of layer on top of IMAP that then moves to a more sophisticated protocol. Google has done such a great job with NLP/AI/ML that spam from facebook, twitter, etc. are all put into a separate tab that I only see when I want to. When I click on an email about a flight, it gives me updates on the status of the flight. Gmail also makes it seamless to share docs. I could make a clean interface for email groups using the Gmail API and have the same product as slack. What am I missing here?
PublicEnemy111··on Atom.io: Multi-Folder Projects
I'd love to hear a testimonial from a python dev. I'd like to make the switch, but I can't without basic tools like autocomplete
PublicEnemy111··on Amazon Home Services
It's also active in dubai. If you order any govt. documents, it is delivered to you via drone
PublicEnemy111··on Beijing to Shut All Major Coal Power Plants to Cut Pollution
This seems very uncharacteristic of China. The residents of Beijing have been told by the government for years that if you don't absolutely need to be outside, then don't go outside. This is the first I've heard of China putting anything before growth.

Unrelated, but this gives me hope that they might crack down on counterfeiting soon.

PublicEnemy111··on Ask HN: MS vs. Job
Stanford. If your plan is to start a startup, potential employees and investors alike will look to see some sort of indicator that you have potential. It sucks to admit, but pedigree IS important.

Think of it as you filling the "Please tell us in one or two sentences something about each founder that shows a high level of ability." box on your YC application

edit: I didn't see you were considering top companies. I would say 1) top company 2) Stanford 3) startups

PublicEnemy111··on Google to pay new CFO $70M by 2016
Article not behind paywall: http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/googles-cfo-70m-d...
PublicEnemy111··on Periscope by Twitter
I think its pretty big everywhere else in the world. People in South Korea use it for "muk-bang"(watching pretty girls eat a TON of food) and Chinese use it for gaming(most gaming channels with 10k+ viewers are chinese channels). I assume Europe has a lot of gamers live stream channels, but the number must be dwarfed by Chinese.

It's really interesting to see cultures evolving around this technology despite America's lag on adopting it.

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