645 karma · joined March 16, 2016
-SMIC is shipping 14nm finFETs, with a 7nm-like process in R&D. -Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) recently entered the 3D NAND market with a 64-layer device. A 128-layer technology is in R&D. -ChangXin Memory Technology (CXMT) is shipping its first product, a 19nm DRAM line. -China is expanding into compound semis, including gallium nitride (GaN) and silicon carbide (SiC). -China’s OSATs are developing more advanced packages.
Scaling certainly isn’t dead. There will still will be chips developed at 5nm and 3nm, primarily because you need to put more and different types of processors/accelerators and memories on a die. But this isn’t just about scaling of logic and memory for power, performance and area reasons, as defined by Moore’s Law. The big problem now is that some of the new AI/ML chips are larger than reticle size, which means you have to stitch multiple die together. Shrinking allows you to put all of this on a single die. These are basically massively parallel architectures on a chip. Scaling provides the means to make this happen, but by itself it is a small part of total the power/performance improvement. At 3nm, you’d be lucky to get 20% P/P improvements, and even that will require new materials like cobalt and a new transistor structure like gate-all-around FETs. A lot of these new chips are promising for orders of magnitude improvement—100 to 1,000X, and you can’t achieve that with scaling alone. That requires other chips, like HBM memory, with a high speed interconnect like an interposer or a bridge, as well as more efficient/sparser algorithms. So scaling is still important, but not for the same reasons it used to be.
These are definitely major shifts, not marketing. The difficulty in continuing Moore's Law/Dennard scaling at 7nm and below makes it imperative to use alternatives. Instead of 50% improvements in power/performance at each new node, it's now 20% max, and probably significantly lower in some cases.