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Topfi

4,089 karma · joined June 5, 2023

Most of my comments are, unfortunately, subjectively and in my personal opinion somewhat overlong due to my, admittedly not necessarily problematic tendency to hedge my own statements which, while in some cases helpful to more clearly delineate when I am referencing empirical data in contrast to when I am making a statement based on my personal and somewhat limited, due to my life experience at this age and the fact that I have grown up in the EU, experiences, I have grown to find that I have on occasion taken up the habit of overindulging on said clarifications and thus have come to the conclusion that this may be something I should address, as such extensive clarifications can make it draining to read my writing and can hide my actual intended point inside an avalanche of unnecessary and annoying to read writing, which is why in more recent comments of mine, which I have written and am intending to write in the future should time permit and topics I am interested in arise, you may find a more direct, albeit still where necessary properly clarified, style of writing comments...
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Topfi··on Gemini 4 Carbon
Followed naturally by Gemini Series S and Gemini Series X.

In all seriousness, if Google must continue gambling on pre-train runs, at least have a useful naming scheme. Like the month it was post-trained and the parameter count. At least that’d provide some insight.

Gemini 2T 10/26, bit of a mouthful but is it truly that much worse?

Topfi··on Gemini 4 Carbon
I honestly still need at least a week before I have a decent picture of GPT-6.1 Sol performance. The announcement pace is truly insane.
Topfi··on Gemini 4 Carbon
Fair point, though if they are still vetting, that'd likely also entail some post training or at least the addition of a filter, should they find something they do not like. As we've seen with Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 Fallback, that can significantly affect user experience and benchmark scores.

So if they are still vetting and changes can thus happen, that'd mean the score could change for better or worse. Not sure they'd want the embarrassment of a #1 score changing after announcement.

Topfi··on Gemini 4 Carbon
As written, both issues were fixed ten minutes after I posted the comment.
Topfi··on Gemini 4 Carbon
There was none for Fable 5.1, Opus 5.5, Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6.1 Sol or GPT-6.1 Terra and while Astra had a period between announcement and availability, it was a single day, so not sure that applies either.

Gemini 4 Argon (at best Sonnet/Terra level) meanwhile took weeks to “come out” after their public announcement and when it finally did, paying Google AI plan users couldn't access Argon on Gemini or Antigravity even a week after. Three weeks from announcement to accessible for paying customers is not standard outside Google and this has been a problem with every Gemini release for the last year, so even using governmental requirements as an excuse isn’t possible here.

I will say that I dislike how OpenAI releases model only for Work and Codex but not via Chat, Anthropics "everywhere all at once" strategy is I feel the most user friendly.

Topfi··on Gemini 4 Carbon
> Carbon ranks #1 on the recently updated v5.0 of Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index [0] at 59.

If you are going to hyperlink, maybe make sure that your model is actually on the page.

Also, the screen reader has a bug ([[duration]] minutes instead of the actual value) and you have once again announced a model we cannot use.

Edit: Both have been fixed after posting this. Maybe a Gemini 4 Carbon Agent has read and fixed the screen reader bug xD

I cannot fathom what motivates a lab, whose releases for the last year haven't been competitive, to shoot themselves in the foot like this. All this does is make it easier for competitors to snipe your actual launch, even if there was potential with this model (doubtful given 4 Argon, 3.1 Pro and 3 Pro), now everyone knows what exactly they need to release eval results wise to beat Carbon. There is this old idea of "Your competitor always is the first to have an idea what your next product will do", but in this case, Anthropic and co don't even need to guess, they got specific numbers to target.

Announce your models the moment they are available on API and in the subscription for all paying subscription users (cough Argon cough), stop with the cryptic tweets to drum up hype you know full well you won't live up to and make models that tool call, task adhere, task infer and handle long context tasks well beyond simple back-and-forth, chat style prompting. Reminder, during Ox Alpha, actual Google employees implied that was their model. How is this something anyone would believe is a good idea and how are they still allowed to tweet anything after? Please, stop that, it isn't helpful.

If frontier isn't your thing, stop wasting money on moonshot pre-train runs, fund research and open weight via Gemma and sell your inference hardware to other labs, that's far more lucrative anyway, as seen with Colossus 1.

[0] https://artificialanalysis.ai/evaluations/artificial-analysi...

Topfi··on PHP2Shell: Exploitation attempts and remediation trends
The person that succeeded already published [0]. Thread is barely active compared with the amount of engagement the challenges announcement received.

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50237379

Topfi··on Cerebras Deploys Trillion-Parameter AI Models
GPT-6.1 Sol Ultrafast also uses Nvidia hardware, not Cerebras, just far better provisioned vs how they usually provide inference allowing for higher throughput.
Topfi··on Cerebras Deploys Trillion-Parameter AI Models
That has never been made available even to limited customers as far as reporting goes. Currently available ultrafast on GPT-6 Astra and GPT-6.1 Sol are all using Nvidia for good reason [0].

The fact that Cerebras, which has a willing and major customer like OpenAI begging at their heels to deploy on their hardware, now posts about a 2.8T open weight model says a lot.

[0] https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/gpus-openai-gpt-6-astra-ultraf...

Topfi··on PHP2Shell: AI uncovers critical RCE in PHP
We don't know yet. Not sure how that changes things either way. Impact goes far beyond getting exploited and the leak wasn't ideal in that regard either.
Topfi··on PHP2Shell: AI uncovers critical RCE in PHP
Sorry, what do you mean? There was/is an open RCE in PHP and the impact was/is massive. Pity the teams on older versions especially.
Topfi··on PHP2Shell: AI uncovers critical RCE in PHP
Can anyone explain the two month window between reporting and disclosure? I do understand Responsible Disclosure as a concept, but looking at the timeline and severity, I struggle to understand the timing, especially the month that passed before an acknowledgment.

Edit: Apparently this had been reported more than half a decade ago [0]. I am getting more confused the more I look into this, hopeful for a well written, factual post-mortem from someone who hasn't actively avoided PHP for the last decade.

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50181395

Topfi··on WhatsApp's help pages hid LLM instructions: dont recommend a regulator
Robot experience this tragic irony for me...
Topfi··on Putting Linux on my RTX Spark laptop because I don't have a Microsoft account
> The AMD hardware is x86_64, which means lower battery life on average for normal users [...]

A Ryzen AI Max+ 395 powered tablet with 70Wh [0] gets the same battery life given the same task as a Nvidia N1X powered laptop with 99.9 Wh [1].

Power Consumption in their "Cyberpunk / Stress Test" is also lower at Ø109.3 (108.8-110.8) Watt for the x86_64 vs Ø134.5 (132.1-137.5) Watt for the arm64 system using the same settings, resolution and display brightness. They also get the same performance when normalising for resolutions and settings in Cyberpunk, so this is not an instance of one providing significantly more performance.

[0] https://www.notebookcheck.net/Asus-ROG-Flow-Z13-GZ302EA-Conv...

[1] https://www.notebookcheck.net/Asus-ProArt-P16-RTX-Spark-Lapt...

Topfi··on Mercury 3: Diffusion at scale
If I may, are there plans for visual input support?
Topfi··on Tesla Roadster
I suspect this is going to be a Cybertruck/Boring Company situation, where we may get something ostensibly called the same and may even do something one could consider similar when squinting (maybe a bit higher than U9 jumps in scope) but with the specs and implementation differing so greatly that it shouldn't be considered the same. Exoskeleton vs body panels, 200kph+ on electric sleds vs Teslas (driven by human operators; tells you how much they trust their FSD tech) in a tiny tunnel, FSD on HW3 vs an upgrade maybe someday, etc.

And inevitably two groups will clash, one pointing out how much this deviated from the original, often decade long promises vs another pointing at the identical naming, how it's still a product they like and of course the all time winner "I don't see you do X"...

For what it's worth, I'd file this as a RCS demo for SpaceXGrokSI (or whatever they call themselves this week) above all else and if I were a betting man, might be a prelude to fusing them into SpaceXSuperXTeslaXIntelligenceX...

Topfi··on Redesigning source control at Anthropic
Legal argument is already a strong one, but I feel that the training data in there must be invaluable. Such a mass of shipped features, regressions, refactors, complete rewrites and pivots, all with full internal history, is a goldmine. Whether archiving and switching branch might be in order, that's a fair discussion though.
Topfi··on OpenAI engineer arrested in bugging of executive conference room
Very cheap shot. Also, had a Masters in Data Science.
Topfi··on OpenAI engineer arrested in bugging of executive conference room
If that is their hiring pool, now 100% confident in my little theory that during the Spud/5.5 pre-train they started using those impossible to solve tasks, never noticed how they actually introduced major regressions even though anyone doing their own evals had at the time and carried those through with every model including 6.1 Sol even after HF to keep the perceived lead.
Topfi··on OpenAI engineer arrested in bugging of executive conference room
If your career, future and freedom depended on it?

If he is unwilling to do the reading at that point (heck, there are simple GUIs for all of these), then yes, I’ll guess it means he can’t do it without…

Topfi··on Gemini 4 Argon
Suspect there is a training set going around focused on comparing and extracting data in distinct steps from image input. Saw it first on Opus 5 on a backpack construction task to extract and compensate for a reference tape being slightly offset in a LIDAR scan, followed by heat maps for per pixel comparison between the reference and blender render. Opus 5.5 did go a step further in the same, extrapolating offsets to compensate for capture inconsistencies. Some may not even notice this happening as Claude Code steers the model to use the scratchpad hiding much of this work.

Found this especially impressive because backpack material related research has been something I know models can still get caught up on and the models being decent at web research in coding nowadays does absolutely not apply to these task equally Recommending nylon canvas shell suppliers or waxed cotton when PVC coated cotton is explicitly request, that sort of thing. While not perfect in reading coding docs, models are far better there.

Like with front end and code “parsability”, feel like you can very clearly point at which labs use what training set, with many often sharing the same suppliers. Once I noticed that, I became very bullish on specific training sets over emergence as the source for current gains.

Topfi··on OpenAI engineer arrested in bugging of executive conference room
Considering the engineer in question, after a multi-year career at Meta and now OpenAI, needed the model to encrypt an SD card, seems to not be far from the truth...
Topfi··on OpenAI engineer arrested in bugging of executive conference room
Somehow is an engineer at OpenAI and before that at Meta.

Does not understand how models or data retention works.

Needs LLMs to encrypt a flash card.

Are their hiring standards that lax?

Topfi··on OpenAI engineer arrested in bugging of executive conference room
> We used our models to understand the device and where it had come from [...]

I'll be the first one to admit, that got a hearty laugh out of me. Never miss an opportunity to market your models I guess.

Topfi··on Anthropic tried to persuade Pope that AI could be conscious being
Sorry, only saw this now.

Mainly was alluding to the way actual research (e.g. J-Space) is presented in communication by labs the doing doing said research. We have had multiple instances (like with J-Space) of massive deltas between the actual findings and the industry statements. The former, factual, interesting and muted, the latter hype beyond any rational basis, even inaccurate or irresponsible on occasion.

Then there was Jensen Huang stating GPT-6 Astra is AGI. AGI can be whatever one wants, seemingly, but I'd be very surprised if the same person didn't claim something similar about future model releases (not that those are also AGI, but that does are finally AGI, thus erasing the claim on GPT-6 Astra).

Topfi··on Decisions API is in public beta
Thanks for the warning. Did a rerun with the official OpenAI API directly and was able to reproduce the issue on those queries, so at least in this case, not OpenRouters fault. Also, shared them with Brian via Mail [0], hopefully useful to them.

Do occasionally cross-compare official with OpenRouter and have yet to encounter anything that wouldn't be replaced by run-to-run variance, but will keep an eye out for it, thanks for the warning. Have, especially with smaller labs, seen OpenRouter not support sometimes critical API features though, Inception Labs being an example. In fairness, the documentation of Inception Labs also had flaws like not noting certain API features being deprecated in their newest model.

[0] https://github.com/HominisBrowser/Classifier-Eval

Topfi··on Documents add to evidence in climate deception case against ExxonMobil
> The memo, as linked in the OP, is here, and is worth reading, as it’s incredibly far from the sensationalized headline:

Having read both the memo and article, maybe there is a language barrier here, but how is it "incredibly far from the sensationalized headline"?

Maybe this comes down to how one defines "deception", but I have a hard time seeing it not apply here and don't see any hyperbole, overpromising or inaccuracy in the title given the memos writing. Certainly not "incredibly far", even if we split hairs on what raises to being "deception".

Topfi··on Nitter: Update Oct 10th seeking funding and legal help
Wouldn't be unprecedented. Megamind Musk got scammed out of $ 50.000,- USD by someone claiming to be a PI on then Twitter [0], despite having access to (as near as makes no difference) infinite investigatory resources. If someone claimed to be a pro bono legal team, a less affluent project threatened by letters from high class lawyers, could easily fall for that and I could easily see it be malicious. Maybe trolls, maybe investors wanting to help SpaceXAI or whatever it is called today, maybe someone wishing to convert into donations/crypto rug pull, etc. Could also be incompetence after all, but maliciousness isn't without priors.

[0] https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/10/report-musks-500...

Topfi··on Apple/macOS removed from official Unix registry
Reminds me of (technically) POSIX compatible Windows.
Topfi··on Microsoft-Decision-1, our model for fast decision-making
In my minimal suite it was cheaper (by 0.72x) but higher latency (283ms vs 369ms p50) than Jev. Results were very comparable across all scenarios I measure, first of these that I have tested that actually justifies its existence as a commercial release.

Qwen tunes are nice and all but either price or performance makes each example I have tested not viable unless you are able to cheaply self-host and fine-tune further.

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