He was already on the stand last week. This doc was part of that, which is how it first came to my attention https://archive.ph/lGLXR
1,610 karma · joined April 20, 2021
He just waves his hand at all that. He mentions Amazon once.
Except Apple.
Start with nominal income, YoY. Personal income is before-tax, disposable personal income is after-tax
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=195kL
Nominal incomes were up 2.3% in 2022, but after tax incomes were down 0.3%. Wage inflation had pushed people into higher tax brackets, and the standard deduction covered a smaller portion. That did not get corrected until Jan 2023, when brackets and deductions all went up over 7%. So the big takeaway is that nominal wage gains in 2022 were all eaten up by higher taxes, and that’s before we layer in inflation.
Now, lets layer in inflation:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=195ll
But now let’s add in H1 2023. First, nominal
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=195mP
With the lowered effective tax rate, we see a much bigger gain in after-tax income, up 8.1% YoY in H1 2023. Now layer in inflation, much reduced from 2022:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=195mw
Things look much brighter with less inflation, and brackets/deductions that caught up with inflation
Keep in mind these data are from BEA’s monthly personal income tables. The article is from a separate Census Bureau survey, that tells largely the same story with different numbers
This is the average effective tax rate: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=19545
New reporting here is that half the cores are custom, though I’m not sure what that means exactly, and do they have an ARM architecture license? Curious for takes here on this chip and SMIC 7nm
And I stand by that. Leave aside who is right, because we don’t know. We do know that Qualcomm sent them ~$270m last fiscal year and ARM is pushing them away. The case is over “tens of millions” in Qualcomm’s telling, so it’s not even that much money ARM is seeking, and it is risky. They have a huge mess with the ARM China joint venture that is not done unfolding IMO, and they have chosen that same moment to sue their second biggest customer, who is about to bring ARM chips to Windows PCs in a real way. ARM “winning” this case looks like losing to me.
In any event, I think they settle before it gets to trial next year, because the potential for embarrassment in discovery for both parties is too great, the sum in question is too small, and both companies should want to see those ARM Windows PCs.