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TradingPlaces

1,610 karma · joined April 20, 2021

Barron’s Tech Investments Senior Writer
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TradingPlaces··on Wind and solar will be 25% of U.S. generating capacity within three years
There are a range of non-lithium storage technologies that are much more suited to the task. As you say, lithium batteries are only suitable for diurnal mismatch and dealing with curtailment. But there is a lot of investment going into non-lithium batteries, electro-mechanical, etc to solve the bigger issues of seasonal storage and resilience. A lot of people like vanadium flow batteries for their unique properties but that may create a supply chain issue. I also like iron based solutions. But they will take a long time to validate and lithium LFP is ready now.
TradingPlaces··on Simpson Fan Grows Tomacco (2003)
I see. One of the two common GMO types is BT, which is a bacteria that produces a protein which is an insecticide. It is widely used in organic farming, especially for caterpillar control. I use it on my edible plants in late summer when we get a lot of caterpillars. In GMO varieties, the BT gene that produces the protein is grafted on to a popular cultivar so they produce their own insecticide.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bacillus_thuringiensis

TradingPlaces··on Justine Bateman on AI, Labor, and the Future of Entertainment
If you're interested in the AI aspects of the Hollywood strikes, this interview with Justine Bateman, a member of both striking unions plus the DGA, is very good. She also has a BS in computer science from UCLA, and seems to understand Nvidia’s business pretty well.
TradingPlaces··on Simpson Fan Grows Tomacco (2003)
I don’t understand the question
TradingPlaces··on Simpson Fan Grows Tomacco (2003)
Just a personal opinion, and one shared by many. The cultivar was bred by a dentist named Huey not for looks or scent like most roses, but for the rootstock. It tends to grow long unorganized canes very prone to disease, and the flowers are small with few petals. We have 32 rose bushes, and every spring I have to watch out for Dr Huey taking over.
TradingPlaces··on Simpson Fan Grows Tomacco (2003)
Yes, in fact most roses and fruit trees are grafted onto different root stock. Most citrus is on sour orange stock. https://citrusrootstocks.org/rootstock-cultivars/ In the case of roses, this is the hideous Dr Huey variety, which will often try and take over the grafted rose https://www.rosenotes.com/2012/03/dr-huey-you-sucker-you.htm...
TradingPlaces··on ChatGPT use declines as users complain about ‘dumber’ answers
Not even about improving bottom line. The costs of inference at scale are staggering for something like GPT-4. Inference costs rise exponentially with model size. Until everyone stops paying the Nvidia tax, there is no service based on a very large model like GPT-4 that can scale and be profitable. Beyond that, they are constrained by Azure’s GPU infrastructure as well.
TradingPlaces··on June Inflation Drops to 3%
This was definitely a mild report, but that headline YoY number is being pulled down by base effects with June 2022. July will reverse that effect, so it will look high in comparison
TradingPlaces··on GPT-4 details leaked?
$100m buys you nothing. $1b is table stakes now.
TradingPlaces··on Claude 2
And to follow up on "Anthropic GPU inference compute, which adds up quickly,” I’ve already been rate limited.
TradingPlaces··on Claude 2
The Inflection.ai Pi model tries way too hard to be a super-friendly chat buddy and winds up deep in the uncanny valley imo. https://pi.ai/talk
TradingPlaces··on Claude 2
Could have just said “no” to the first question, saved me time, and Anthropic GPU inference compute, which adds up quickly.

But as I noted elsewhere, I am finding it very useful for text summarizing.

TradingPlaces··on Claude 2
TBF, finding it very useful for text summarization
TradingPlaces··on Claude 2
Already a BS machine for me on first try.

Me: Can you manipulate data tables?

C2: Yes I can. Here’s some of the things I can do.

Me: Here’s some data and what to do with it (annualized growth rates).

C2: [processes for a while and starts spitting out responses, then deletes all that]

Me: What happened?

C2: Sorry, I lied. I can’t do any of that

Full exchange: https://econtwitter.net/@TradingPlacesResearch/1106958439180...

TradingPlaces··on GPT-4 details leaked?
Keep in mind, that was the idea originally. Then in 2018 Elon decided he wanted to be CEO, the board rejected that idea for now obvious reasons, and he reneged on 90% of a promised $1b donation. The only way forward was to become a for-profit company and do a normal funding round, which is what happened with Microsoft. Elon’s rug pull is why this happened.
TradingPlaces··on When did Alan Partridge first appear on television?
I will watch anything with Coogan and Brydon. Also Tristram Shandy
TradingPlaces··on Experiencing decreased performance with ChatGPT-4
I am convinced they have limited inference time to save GPU compute a month or two after Bing did the same. Perhaps I am part of that group hallucination.
TradingPlaces··on DigitalOcean acquires Paperspace (YC W15) for $111M in cash
It is so constrained that companies are literally buying smaller GPU cloud companies.

So, if by “hysterical,” you mean it is pretty funny and a reflection of the hype cycle, then yes. If you mean that I am being overwrought, I can assure you I am not. Even the hyperscalers do not have enough GPUs

TradingPlaces··on DigitalOcean acquires Paperspace (YC W15) for $111M in cash
People buying companies just to get their hands on some more Nvidia GPUs.
TradingPlaces··on Amazon CEO Asks His Hollywood Studio to Explain Its Big Spending
Part of a VERY long history of non-media companies buying studios and regretting it later. It’s sexy and sounds good until you get into the actual business part, which is terrible.
TradingPlaces··on Amazon CEO Asks His Hollywood Studio to Explain Its Big Spending
Wait? He’s just asking now?
TradingPlaces··on Supreme Court strikes down affirmative action in college admissions
No, you are speaking for the data.
TradingPlaces··on Samsung Foundry Tracking 2nm In 2025
These time lines are aspirational and are rarely met.
TradingPlaces··on Supreme Court strikes down affirmative action in college admissions
If you are using politically motivated reasoning, yes. Good luck with that!
TradingPlaces··on Supreme Court strikes down affirmative action in college admissions
That’s a strange reading of that study, and at odds with the abstract.

>The lawsuit Students For Fair Admissions v. Harvard University provided an un- precedented look at how an elite school makes admissions decisions. Using publicly released reports, we examine the preferences Harvard gives for recruited athletes, lega- cies, those on the dean’s interest list, and children of faculty and staff (ALDCs). Among white admits, over 43% are ALDC. Among admits who are African American, Asian American, and Hispanic, the share is less than 16% each. Our model of admissions shows that roughly three-quarters of white ALDC admits would have been rejected if they had been treated as typical white applicants. Removing preferences for athletes and legacies would significantly alter the racial distribution of admitted students, with the share of white admits falling and all other groups rising or remaining unchanged.

TradingPlaces··on Supreme Court strikes down affirmative action in college admissions
1. The largest beneficiaries of admissions policies at elite institutions are legacy admissions of wealth alumni’s kids. If SCOTUS wants to interfere with the admissions policies of private institutions based on the equal protections clause, maybe that’s a better place to start.

2. The vast majority of students attend colleges that accept almost everyone.

TradingPlaces··on Kagi raises $670k
Nice, Vlad. Keep up the good work!
TradingPlaces··on Ask HN: Why Delaware and Not Dubai?
Only Delaware has the Delaware Chancery Court, the best legal venue in the world for business disputes.
TradingPlaces··on De-Dollarization Facts
My read is that everyone is just looking to spread out risk more. At first this was the Euro, but then the 2014-5 crisis sort of killed that. Now it’s a wider range of currencies including Chinese, Japanese, Canadian and Aussie. The Chinese reserves are all in emerging market countries.
TradingPlaces··on Ask HN: How do you find high quality mobile games?
Not much help for Android, but I love Apple Arcade. Great selection now, and no freemium nonsense.
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