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Zigurd

12,131 karma · joined June 6, 2011

Information about me is at zigurd.com

I'm not sarcastic. I practice Effective Ambiguity.

I make tiktoks about project management and tech: https://www.tiktok.com/@zigurdmednieks

I wrote a 5G guide that helps people who are not deeply familiar with mobile networks cut through 5G industry hype: 5ggui.de

I wrote parts of these books: http://amzn.com/dp/1118183495 http://amzn.com/dp/1449316646 http://amzn.com/dp/1449389694 http://amzn.com/dp/8184047339

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Zigurd··on Anthropic reports $17B in Q3 revenue, commitments of $895B in revised S-1
AGI is supposedly the literal be all and end all. It's a bit embarrassing for the singularity to have an S curve.
Zigurd··on Anthropic reports $17B in Q3 revenue, commitments of $895B in revised S-1
But they do have S curves. If you're on the shoulder of the S curve while your spending commitments are accelerating, that won't end well.
Zigurd··on SpaceX's $2T Bet Has a Physics Problem [video]
Space data centers is an idea that originated at Google, and you'll find some back of the envelope math that says it's possible. Which is fine if you're speculating about wild ideas at Google. They even built those Internet balloons before figuring out that wasn't going to work.

The difference is Elon actually sells these ideas to investors. There's a difference between being Edward Teller and being Elizabeth Holmes which he may not be seeing.

Zigurd··on With 86% of the words, you might understand only 38% of an anime's lines
Latgalian (<- correct spelling) is a dialect spoken by maybe tens of thousands of people in the province of Latgale. I assumed that since this was a distro from Latvia, that I was looking at Latvian when I booted it up. I did not take the hint that "Austrumi" was referring to the east of Latvia, which is the province of Latgale.

I might have had a better chance understanding spoken Latgalian. Written Latvian is all phonetic, having been designed by 15th c. German clergy to teach us barbarians a proper religion without burdening us with difficult spelling rules. Written Latgalian is a retrofit.

Zigurd··on The staggering $446M Elon Musk has spent on the US midterms – visualized
It sure seems that it doesn't take much. Kevin O'Leary gets people to lend him money to build data centers from being on a TV show. A disturbingly large number of people think Trump is a business genius because of his TV show. Elon Musk looks very legit by comparison.
Zigurd··on The staggering $446M Elon Musk has spent on the US midterms – visualized
I readily admit to being literal minded more than I should be, but some people here...
Zigurd··on Private Jet plane crashes in Florida
Icing was mentioned early in the ATC audio, then a request to increase altitude, then a comment that they encountered precipitation, implying the icing could get worse.

IANAP but the mention of precipitation points to conditions that could overwhelm anti-icing systems, which the Learjet was equipped with.

Zigurd··on With 86% of the words, you might understand only 38% of an anime's lines
I once ran an inadvertent experiment by installing Austrumi Linux, but not realizing that the default language is Latgallian. I'm fluent in Latvian, but I wondered if something had gone wrong with my brain. I could understand most of the words I was looking at, but more than half of the sentences I read were baffling.
Zigurd··on UK Green party drops longstanding opposition to nuclear power
You really are a time traveler from the 1990s. In your comment below you say "Batteries are far too expensive, we're still a couple of decades out for that." Even excluding battery chemistry that are designed for bulk use like sodium ion, solar plus batteries is far cheaper than nuclear power. Today.

You think it's axiomatic that the insurability of nuclear power has to be socialized. Insurability is a strong and reliable financial signal. We're seeing this every day in the tech industry now with data center build out that needs credit default swaps. If you can't buy insurance at any price, it's probably not going to end well.

Zigurd··on UK Green party drops longstanding opposition to nuclear power
The 1990s called. They want their energy economics back.

Even back then, those economic comparisons were idealized for nuclear. Build it run it count up to the dollars and there you go. Except you need to secure it, you need to handle waste, and roughly the same cost over runs are bedeviling decommissioning as they were construction.

On top of all that, why is nuclear still uninsurable in the private market?

Zigurd··on UK Green party drops longstanding opposition to nuclear power
By the time they build one the kids will be asking what's a hyperscaler?
Zigurd··on Musk, Zuckerberg push to rebrand AI as 'super intelligence' on earnings calls
People are giving Trump too little credit for the one thing he's good at, and the one thing he's outsmarted the tech smarties at: he made them bend the knee, and once they did that with the ballroom donations, a proper bully will make them lick his shoes.
Zigurd··on Anthropic to receive high 'junk' rating from credit agencies following IPO
All orbital data networks are competing against terrestrial wireless, which is much cheaper and faster to expand, and it doesn't deorbit itself in five years because it's run out of maneuvering fuel. Selling space technology into a shrinking TAM takes bravado, or in the case of Amazon, it takes having a business that can carry you if the bet doesn't pay off.

The TAM eventually boils down to whatever floats or flies over the oceans, military customers, and places where the wireless network operator is too feckless to provide coverage to your cottage at the end of 2 miles of driveway.

Zigurd··on Anthropic to receive high 'junk' rating from credit agencies following IPO
Sergey has gone a bit culty. But yeah. There are no moats that can keep out everyone who has built and operated data centers before the AI bubble. For these players, overspending, up to a point, is a defensive move.

The cult definitely has some Jonestown overtones: the singularity is coming so things so mundane as a bond rating are of no concern. One way or the other.

Zigurd··on SpaceX no longer needs NASA, and that's a problem for America's space agency
Crew Dragon has a launch escape system. Starship can't, at least not without some fundamental changes.
Zigurd··on US Reps Lead Democratic Resolution Opposing A.I. Bubble Bailout for Big Tech
Marginally greater skepticism is probably a good thing in terms of avoiding a big shock when some big AI player, like Oracle for example, gets into serious financial trouble.
Zigurd··on SpaceX no longer needs NASA, and that's a problem for America's space agency
They also put down a deposit for a roadster.
Zigurd··on SpaceX no longer needs NASA, and that's a problem for America's space agency
Putting a crew on starship means either developing a crew escape mechanism, or demonstrating it is safe without one, and convincing regulators that's true because Elon would never exaggerate safety claims.
Zigurd··on What we know so far about Spain train crash
Overriding safety systems is itself a safety capability. But this wasn't a failure of the safety systems. It wasn't even a failure of the train drivers who had been over using safety system overrides. It was a management failure for not noticing that over use of overrides.
Zigurd··on What we know so far about Spain train crash
If I read the description correctly, those hardware level systems were manually overridden, which should only be done in extremis. My guess is that this is going to turn into a normalization of deviance case, since such a cavalier attitude toward safety was unlikely to be one person's first time doing something so dangerous. There was no dilemma here and no time pressure.

Your suggestion about limiting speed after a shut down is a good one. On top of that, the rail operators should have spotted a trend of repeated safety system overrides and investigated why that was happening.

Zigurd··on What we know so far about Spain train crash
I'm totally not on the spectrum so I've only watched about 80% of the Plainly Difficult channel on YouTube, but if you want a painless and entertaining, if you're into that kind of thing, way of learning about train signaling and safety, and how safety systems have evolved, I highly recommend it.
Zigurd··on The US added a record 20.2 GWh of battery storage in just 3 months
Leadtime for nuclear power, unless you wanna buy a sketchy Russian submarine reactor that's been rusting in an arctic bay, is decades longer than even the supply constrained gas turbines.

I don't know why you think solar needs two forms of back up. Batteries are very reliable.

Zigurd··on Hackers expose the identities of more than 40k DHS employees
It's worthy of a book length history: some records were shredded, and some undoubtedly lost forever, but German citizens occupied Stasi offices and preserved records. At least some of the shredded records were digitized and reconstructed. There are over 100 million pages of archived Stasi documents in German archives today.
Zigurd··on The US added a record 20.2 GWh of battery storage in just 3 months
Compared with gas turbines? The main reason power is supply constrained is that gas turbines are a precision high-tech product that fails catastrophically if you don't build it right and maintain it.

Bloom fuel cells are a plausible alternative, but they are in the process of building out their manufacturing capacity, and operating experience at data center scale hasn't been tested. Bloom's process also involves extremely high temperatures, which could result in uptime and maintenance issues.

Zigurd··on Gemini 4 Carbon is the new #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v5
I have a fairly narrow use case: I'm developing apps in Dart/Flutter. Gemini works well for that.
Zigurd··on AI Industry's Gamble on Trump Crashes into New Political Reality
What's particularly hilarious about this robot thing is that it's not about industrial robots, which might matter. It's about humanoid robots, which is a strong contender for 1Am3s7 idea of the 21st century. Worrying about China's humanoid robots is bad policy in a laughably inconsequential way.
Zigurd··on Elon Musk is a 'real genius', Putin says after satellite talks with SpaceX boss
It has been amusing observing supposedly genius level tech industry leaders kiss Trump's ass, and how that aged like milk. Cozying up to Putin is next level idiocy.
Zigurd··on Hackers expose the identities of more than 40k DHS employees
The Germans knew to identify ex Stasi and their informants so they know who to beware of.
Zigurd··on Evidence of a spying operation by ICE against left-wing social movements
Basically true but is it any more important than that retired cops moved to Idaho for the neonazi vibe?
Zigurd··on Evidence of a spying operation by ICE against left-wing social movements
Their status in society should be comparable to former Stasi. You probably haven't heard much about how former Stasi were treated, and how they still are perceived.
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