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alcio

457 karma · joined November 8, 2015

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alcio··on Ask HN: Do you trust solo entrepreneurs?
> For your typical solo founder in their 30s, their odds of dying at any point over the next 10 years is something like 0.2%

The real figure is more 2.1% (source: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html)

alcio··on The Handwavy Technobabble Nothingburger of Crypto
> Any application that could be done on a blockchain could be better done on a centralized database. Except crime.

In a weird way, this quote is a good explanation of why cryptos exist: they give the possibility of creating systems evading state controls.

Crime is a relative thing: moving money outside of certain countries is prohibited, in others it's owning property for certain category of people.

alcio··on The rise of crypto laundries: how criminals cash out of Bitcoin
yes, you can email it to your miner buddy.

it's possible to spot such transactions if they violate transaction forwarding rules (aka standardness rules) but not consensus rules. for example, a transaction greater than 100kB is not standard but still valid.

alcio··on Building a new vector based storage model
Excited to see this new release. Seems to me this would (slightly?) negatively impact query performance for recent data (when the query concerns data is both in O3 and persisted zones), is that the case?
alcio··on Proof-of-work should be banned
Proof-of-stake coins lack one of proof-of-work coins most important properties: censorship resistance.

In both consensus systems, a censor is someone that has amassed 51% of the currently available stake (in PoW stake is mining machines, in PoS it is outstanding tokens).

In proof-of-work systems, a censor can be unseated by censored parties allocating more capital to mining machines until non-censoring parties own 51% of all machines.

In proof-of-stake systems, it is impossible to unseat a censor: since it owns 51% of tokens, it will also owns 51% of newly minted units in perpetuity (assuming it doesn't stop censoring and doesn't run into issues that would end up slashing some of their stake).

alcio··on The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine
USDT-USD markets are indeed marginal. however, implied USDT price using BTC as a cross shows USDT is valued pretty much at parity with the dollar by the market:

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/spread/BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT...

alcio··on The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine
inflation in consumer goods might not be high, but financial assets have clearly inflated: a quick look at gold denominated SPY shows it.
alcio··on On Blockchain Commit Times: How miners choose Bitcoin transactions [pdf]
In some cases, increasing the fee once the transaction has been broadcast is not possible (original transaction doesn't use replace-by-fee OR child-pay-for-parent is not possible)
alcio··on On Blockchain Commit Times: How miners choose Bitcoin transactions [pdf]
"miners somehowd eviate from the conventional wisdom or the norm, which dictates that transactions are prioritized for inclusion based on the fee-per-byte metric"

Miners prioritize by fee-per-byte, except that the on-chain fee only accounts for part of the fee paid for some transactions.

Over the years, many services have popped up where you can pay an out-of-band fee to a miner to include your transactions first.

Of course, this is detrimental to users not using these systems as it biases the algorithms used to determine what is the current best fee-per-byte to pay.

alcio··on Berlin Gold Hat
it weighs 490gr and the gold is 87.7% pure, that results in cube of side 2.8cm

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=490+*+0.877+grams+of+g...

alcio··on Ask HN: Can Bitcoin ledger be synced from GCP Bigquery dataset
Using a full node, you not only sync the history, but also validate it. In recent days, on a modern machine with a good internet connection, it takes less than 12hrs to achieve this.

If you don't care about validating the history, I guess using BigQuery would work but I don't know how to achieve it.

alcio··on If Bitcoin Looks Like It Isn’t Trading, It’s Because It Isn’t
How many AAPL shares have not been traded for the past 2 years? And how many BRK.A?

Bitcoin gives the opportunity to answer those questions contrarily to the complex and somewhat opaque equities ownership rules.

alcio··on Arrest Of U.S. Citizen For Assisting North Korea In Evading Sanctions
in this case, the defendant got a visa detached from its passport.

from what I could gather from the complaint and his social media (https://twitter.com/virgilgr/status/1161217917427470337), he just never tried to hide it.

alcio··on Arrest Of U.S. Citizen For Assisting North Korea In Evading Sanctions
According to the complaint, the defendant:

- went back to the US several time after traveling to the DPRK despite being warned not to by the US state department

- had several consensual interviews with FBI agents

- consented to a search of his phone

It's hard to read this and not think that he brought this upon himself. If you really want to do what he did, get a lawyer, don't travel back to the US, don't speak to law enforcement.

alcio··on Arrest Of U.S. Citizen For Assisting North Korea In Evading Sanctions
When you have traveled to the DPRK despite warnings of the Department of State, visiting the US is not the best decision to take.
alcio··on SoftBank Next 30-Year Vision (2010) [pdf]
On one slide, there's a mention that in 2300, computers will have 10^60 elements in them.

However, there's only 10^50 atoms on Earth.

alcio··on Binance exchange hackers steal bitcoins worth $41m
Swift lost at least $85M in 2016, and that was only 1 partial attack. Had it went fully through, hundreds of millions would have been robbed.
alcio··on Binance exchange hackers steal bitcoins worth $41m
How is the USD worth anything after some many bank robberies?

Bitcoin itself worked as expected, and the fact that no one can easily reverse transactions is one of the features described in the original whitepaper:

"Transactions that are computationally impractical to reverse would protect sellers from fraud, and routine escrow mechanisms could easily be implemented to protect buyers"

alcio··on Binance exchange hackers steal bitcoins worth $41m
> What is it giving you that's worth the enormous montain of precaution that you need to take to secure yourself?

It's giving you precisely the opportunity the Binance hackers seized: doing transactions that no one else wants done. You don't have to ask permission nor trust anyone but Bitcoin itself.

alcio··on Coinbase is launching support for the USDC stablecoin
It's funny that the USDC website doesn't list the main use of stablecoins (especially Tether) these days: arbitrage.

When moving fiat between two exchanges can take days and flag your accounts for suspicious activity, moving the same value using Tether is much much faster (~30 mins to 1 hour).

If one observes how does USDT flows, you'll find that it flows between the 3 or 4 major exchanges that use it, with almost no use elsewhere: no major wallets, no merchant acceptance, etc..

alcio··on Twitter has barred hundreds of accounts for posing as liberal activists
if Twitter were to ban stupid content from its website, not much would remain ; the stupidity of this can't be used as a reason to explain the bans.
alcio··on In Silicon Valley wages are down for everyone but the top 10 percent
I cast a super wide net to show how ridiculous the original statement was.
alcio··on In Silicon Valley wages are down for everyone but the top 10 percent
Not only is it terrible, but misleading too.

Google has 88k employees and had a $32B revenue last quarter. Let's assume 25% of employees are R&D, each paid $250k/y: Google would spend $5.5B a year on R&D, or 4.2% of revenues ; not quite a "large portion of their capital".

alcio··on Coinbase Wants to Be Too Big to Fail
Mastercard/Visa do thousands of transactions per second and charge a single digit percentage fee on top.

Bitcoin does 3 to 5 transactions per second and charges a fixed fee per byte of transaction space.

Which is fairer? Speed has a cost that many people ignore.

alcio··on Software disenchantment
> Recently our industry’s lack of care for efficiency, simplicity, and excellence started really getting to me, to the point of me getting depressed by my own career and the IT in general.

Loading this website resulted in 5.3MB being downloaded over 42 requests.

alcio··on Rain ruins one of Norway’s richest men
One of the most important thing to learn when trading is risk management, how to preserve your capital. Being wrong is part of trading, staying wrong isn't.

It's especially interesting to see it happen to someone that actually worked as a risk manager in his early days ; especially so close to the anniversary of Lehman's demise.

alcio··on “They’ll Just Make It Illegal”
Resistance to state control is one of the axioms Bitcoin is built upon. If you think it is not possible, then Bitcoin cannot make sense to you.

https://github.com/libbitcoin/libbitcoin/wiki/Axiom-of-Resis...

alcio··on “They’ll Just Make It Illegal”
> the idea that money could be independent of government (and hence those that own the government) is very dangerous

that's how things were quite recently (before the ~19th century)

alcio··on Ask HN: What's something I can do with a spare, modern laptop?
Mining bitcoins on a modern laptop is utterly useless. All of the mining is done on specialized hardware nowadays. Revenue would be less than pennies per year on a CPU.
alcio··on Blockchain could save investment banks up to $12B a year: Accenture
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