132 karma · joined January 6, 2020
Those are all things difficult to get consistently from a random web store.
That is to say, what she said may not have even sounded truthful to herself, but it is plausible that it would be said in that context.
How can we distinguish the effect from a general “I’m making a change” groundswell of feel goodery?
If I asked you to abstain from any behavior for a week to see if it would improve your life... I bet most studies would show abstention helped.
The relevant question is how this intervention helped, compared to other interventions that could be seen as similar. Eg, if you didn’t watch tv for a week, how would you feel?
What a funny world we live in, in our heads.
It sounds more like a piece of unrelated information that you are leveraging to support the story you told yourself.
His solution is to continue to insist that he is correct. He insists they see things his way. They decline, and basically tell him to take it up with the regulators if he doesn’t like their response.
He continues emailing Facebook.
Look, if you tell me I have to do something, and I disagree, you only have two options. Let it go, or escalate. Instead, he continues the exchange, possibly in order to get enough material to drop an outrage bomb.
This is kind of ridiculous, tbh. He has no idea why FB behaves the way they do, except his own personal story about the company. This is the kind of guy who uses Hooters for discriminating against men - maybe they’re technically in the legal area, but they come across as a complete asshat.
What if it turns out they detected this code was run by other people and responsible for 50% of the unauthorized access? Just because it doesn’t entirely solve the problem, does not mean they shouldn’t pursue all partial tactics.
When the virus starts, the markets adjust downwards because there is a chance that virus kills tens of millions, which would have severe economic impact.
As the world public health starts to reduce the error bars or bad outcome likelihood, the market adjusts.
The problem is that you’re thinking of something as having a concrete value. Instead, think like Tetlock teaches in superforecasters. Then you will have a better model of what’s going on.