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arawde

337 karma · joined September 22, 2013

"i'm just a guy, you know?" - matt levine

avery [at] gitblame [dot] me

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arawde··on Eliminating Robocalls
In Android Pie, Do Not Disturb mode makes it so you are only notified of calls from your contacts. All other calls are received silently.
arawde··on Kdenlive: an open-source video editor
I've only used it a few times, but I pronounce it along the lines of "kayden-live"
arawde··on Truffle: Finds business deductions in your personal spending history
in terms of the features that are there now, what would you recommend using which has more active development? Mint's UI is hot garbage, but it does what I need it to do...
arawde··on Paul Graham on the Transition to Meat Substitutes
I'm on the opposite side of this. I've eaten meat for the first 23 years of my life, but my current partner is vegan. A large part of our relationship has been discovering that vegetables are actually good to eat when they're not an afterthought to a meal. I go out of my way to try the meat substitutes now, because I'm holding out that one of them will actually be good enough for me to show my carnivore friends.

For many years, I've wanted to try being vegetarian as a way to reduce my environmental impact. To me, meat substitutes are the last missing piece in the puzzle, the piece that shows that its possible to consume staples like hamburgers or spaghetti and meatballs.

Not all of the meat substitutes are good. Not all of them have to be. But a more sustainable future, where meat (and especially seafood) are cultivated in a way that has a less harmful impact on the environment, is a future that I want to help facilitate.

arawde··on Network protocols for anyone who knows a programming language
I did the exact same projects in my 3rd-year networking class
arawde··on Bauhaus at 100: its legacy in five key designs
There is also Objectified, about industrial and product design, which I believe is his best. It has a small segment with Rams in it.
arawde··on $1.2T in risky corporate debt showing similar warning signs to subprime crisis
At last year's World Economic Forum, there was a panel titled "The Next Financial Crisis", and while many different potential causes were considered, the most prominent one is definitely corporate debt, especially emerging market debt that is dollar-denominated. [0]

Much of the concern in markets right now seems to stem from the idea that as the Federal Reserve tightens credit, both through raising interest rates and through unwinding its previous QE programs, there will be a significant impact on companies that have borrowed at lower interest rates. Debt that is going to come due in the next few years is going to have to be refinanced, or is going to default.

If you're a country which borrowed in dollars, the tightening of US monetary policy will often lead to a change in exchange rates that makes it more expensive to pay back debt. Coupled with a global economic slowdown resulting from a trade war, and things start to look nasty wherever you look.

[0]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WOs6S0VrlA

arawde··on Hurricane Electric 3D network map
I still remember my networking professor showing us the HE backbone map and how blown away I was. This takes it to a whole new level!
arawde··on Ask HN: What’s your plan in 2019?
I have two big goals:

- I want to complete my CS degree, get a post-graduation work permit (I am a US citizen going to school in Canada), and find a full time job

- I'd like to learn to deal with my anxiety better. I have a diagnosed disorder, and lately it has made it incredibly difficult to enjoy doing things outside of my comfort zone. I often have problems eating and socializing, and I would like to start seeing a therapist and develop coping skills to deal with the shit that goes on in my mind.

arawde··on SEC Sues Musk and Seeks Ban for His Tweets on Go-Private Deal
It's not shorted because of its mission, its shorted because of the negative cash flow. Musks' public persona doesn't exactly give off the aura of a man who has his companies operating expenses and profitability under control.
arawde··on SEC detects insider trading by executive at Alliance Fiber Optic Products
I think this is true. I would have to look to find a case where this was what happened, but I would be surprised if such a case did not already exist.

I think this situation is much more difficult to find and enforce, however. As an executive, you have to file with the SEC for share purchases (I believe its either a certain number of shares or a certain $ amount bought/sold. I also believe the form is form 4)

So it becomes a matter of figuring out when the senior exec knew the information and traded on it, and I think its a bit more difficult to enforce because its not your typical insider case.

I like your example, because it really hits at the edges of what is material non-public information.

Something that just occurred to me: if you are a senior exec, your compensation is probably tied to share ownership in $ME. Even if you trade on $THEM, and make money, you're probably going to take a pretty substantial hit on your own $ME holdings. This isn't to say its any less fraudulent/misleading, but its an interesting thing to consider.

I wish I had a better answer to this scenario.

arawde··on SEC detects insider trading by executive at Alliance Fiber Optic Products
It may seem unfair, but I think the reason I would give as to why it isn't is: you have to pay for that source of data. Using satellite imagery to analyze sales, imho, sort of falls into the same area where HFTs pay for feeds from exchanges so they can take advantages of widening gaps in bid/ask spreads.

When it comes to insider trading, it really seems to boil down to: did I obtain the information in a way where no outsider would have possibly done so? With your example, it certainly seems possible that other groups could perform the same analysis. So as you said, it wouldn't be insider trading.

I think another one of the aspects of insider trading is _certainty_. If you're an insider, and you know your company is going to miss earnings, the likelihood of you making a wrong bet are near 0. If you're analyzing imagery of parking lots to see if sales at Wal-Mart are going up, theres still a non-insignificant chance that you could bet wrong. Maybe the reason theres so many cars it that they are running promotions that actually don't increase revenues in an expected way. Maybe there aren't any cars because people are taking public transit. When you're an outsider, theres way more variables that go into your trade, compared to when you're an insider and its a simple question of "how will this information about my company get reacted to?"

Insider trading is probably one of the most interesting aspects of modern finance. As you can probably tell, I take most of my information from Matt Levine (he gets linked here pretty often, but his column is Money Stuff on Bloomberg (also an email newsletter so you don't use up your free articles))

Again, not an expert, take everything I say with a healthy pinch of salt.

arawde··on SEC detects insider trading by executive at Alliance Fiber Optic Products
I'm going to take a stab at answering this, but I am not an expert.

Insider trading applies to instances where you have _material, non-public_ information about a company. The criteria of what makes information material and non-public are a little bit of a gray area, but I'm going to just use it to mean "I know something about a company because I am in a position to be trusted by that company"

In other words, your example wouldn't be insider trading. You have no material, non-public information about correlated stocks or a competitors stock. You have a hunch that that stock will perform in a way related to the stock you have information on. AFAIK, theres nothing stopping you from acting on that hunch.

So of the 3 options presented, its probably a mixture between 1 and 3, leaning towards 1.

arawde··on The Meaninglessness of the Stock Market Index in a Digital World
On a related note, there are a _lot_ of indices. FT reports that there are over 3 million stock indices, for ~50k public stocks [0]. You can make an index with basically anything in it. There are indices for emerging markets, for the Gulf region, for companies in Mexico, for companies which qualify as ESG (environmental, social, and governance) criteria. There are indices of stocks that historically perform well in periods of rising interest rates, and there are indices for the Eurozone.

The ETFs just build on top of the index. In almost every prospectus, there is some kind of note about which index it is. You can go look at how the index is arranged, and there are sometimes multiple funds that track indices in the same sectors, with different weights. If you're not happy with the amount of Berkshire in your financials ETF, you can go find a fund which uses a different index and buy that instead.

If anything, a stock market index is _more_ valuable in a digital world, because it effectively adds a layer of abstraction to the typical notion of investing.

[0] https://www.ft.com/content/9ad80998-fed5-11e7-9650-9c0ad2d7c...

arawde··on Ask HN: 2018 resolutions?
I'd like to play more guitar. Get a better grip on my habits and my health. Graduate university.
arawde··on Spamnesty – A Bot to waste spammers' time
I've found that if I don't recognize the number, I answer the phone and don't say anything. If no voice comes over the line within 5-10 seconds, I hang up.
arawde··on Network Protocols
This was the textbook for my intermediate operating systems class, and I'd second this recommendation.
arawde··on The Sodium crypto library
Non-mobile link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NaCl_(software)
arawde··on Cash Ban the Best Thing to Happen to Indian Digital Payments
Because the initial move to take the denominations out of the currency pool was to fight transactions and earnings which were not being taxed correctly. So unless you're willing to claim that being able to better apply taxes to individuals is a nefarious purpose, it's just not really true.
arawde··on How Green Is That Grocery Bag Ban? (2014) [pdf]
I do the same thing, but... grocery store bags are pretty small. I would imagine you would need to use a number of grocery store bags to hold the equivalent amount of a black drawstring bag most people use.

I also use a reusable bag for most my grocery shopping. I know a number of people who use cloth bags.

I do know there are programs which seek to collect plastic bags and recycle them, but I've never actually looked into what they are being used for.

If you feel like your contribution of recycling grocery store bags is meaningful, I don't think you should stop.

arawde··on Spaceplan
Beautifully done :)
arawde··on Google Shutting Down Wallet Card
It's a bank startup which doesn't have physical locations. They're partnered with Bancorp, so your account is backed by FDIC, and they have a large number of ATMs. You can read more here https://www.simple.com/
arawde··on Discogs Turns Record Collectors’ Obsessions into Big Business
I've only discovered Discogs recently but I absolutely love it, strictly for tagging data. I can figure out which copies of songs I have and tag them appropriately, satisfying my slight OCD. From what I've seen over the 2 years or so I've used it, I agree that they have gotten better. I've yet to make any purchases through the site, but knowing that I can is just another reason to use it.
arawde··on Switzerland to vote on banning banks from creating money
No. Stock prices represent the markets approximation of the value of a share in the company, and its potential for future growth. Stocks can (sort of) be thought of as currency which represents companies rather than a government's reserve systems. A US dollar is worth $1 because you and the person you are giving it to expect it to be worth $1 (roughly) tomorrow. When you move stocks, it's a similar agreement on the value of what is being moved.

Of course, with stocks you have a much larger ability to measure your trust.

arawde··on AVG: “Web TuneUP” extension multiple critical vulnerabilities
That makes sense, thank you for the explanation. That said, I suppose I'm still disappointed that a security vendor would manipulate extension installation to bypass checks on a platform, but I'm not particularly surprised that it's the kind of thing AVG would do.
arawde··on AVG: “Web TuneUP” extension multiple critical vulnerabilities
The fact that the blacklist checks can be bypassed is troubling in and of itself; the fact that a security company would knowingly do so is even more troublesome. I just finished removing AVG from my mother's laptop yesterday, it's not very often you get a choice validated so quickly.
arawde··on Square jumps in market debut
Anyone with a solid understanding of investment fundamentals can distinguish an IPO which will flop versus one which will stay at or above market price on the first day.

The SEC filings from every company before their IPO contains more than enough data to evaluate their standings as a business, and are publicly viewable. There's a reason people know things, it's not all magic.

arawde··on Doctors want ban on prescription drug, device advertisements
My only critique of your script is that the ordering between the side effects and the product name would seem to imply that other medications cause more side effects than Prozac
arawde··on Doctors want ban on prescription drug, device advertisements
As someone who also has mental health issues, I want to say I agree. However, I don't think ads are the optimal way for a populace to stay educated. Personally, every medication I've been prescribed has been followed by my own research as to how the medication is designed to work.

I will agree though that the relationship between me and my doctor should be a two-way one. I am completely open with my doctor and make it known what i expect out of them, and they are the same with me.

arawde··on It’s probably a myth that we’re sleeping less than we used to
There's also http://aeon.co/magazine/psychology/why-broken-sleep-is-a-gol... which was posted a while back on HN and which I found quite interesting.
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