1,951 karma · joined May 18, 2021
Oh, look, you've normalized deviance. All of these things are screaming red flags, the house is burning down around you.
One day, Gabe Newell will die. Maybe his racer son will inherit the job, or maybe he'll delegate the job. Maybe this new CEO will take Valve public to ensure they get a centi-million dollar payout.
Then all the good times end. This is the halcyon for Steam customers.
Are these huge productivity gains in the room with us now?
LLM-assisted coding makes the easy stuff quick and the hard stuff impossible. But I was spending 80% of my mental energy on the hard stuff anyway, and the easy stuff was down time that's closer to rest than it is to work.
This is bad. We should not shrug our shoulders and go "Oh ho, this is how the game is played" as though we can substitute cynicism for wisdom. We should say "this is bad, this is a moral hazard, and we should imprison and impoverish those who keep trying it".
Or we'll get more.
Bad idea, bad execution, I like it when a plan comes together.
Right! Problem, billions of dollars have been poured into this wrt to infrastructure, datacenters, compute and salaries. LLMs need to be at the level of replacing vast swathes of us to be worth it. LLMs are not going to be doing that.
This is a collosal malinvestment.
This is stupid for many reasons, including (but not limited to): non-monetary, in-kind benefits being excluded, perverse outcomes such as a decline in median wages "reducing poverty" and just about guaranteed continuation of this "poverty". So left wing politicians LOVE it. It's an everlasting cudgel that can never be fixed.
Excel allows norm(al users)ies to scale Mt Impossible from the bottom where they don't care about types, or relationships, and don't want to (because it's too abstract). They want to solve a problem. So they start with simple data given meaning by physical space, and work up from there.
It's genius. It's computing for people that will never care about pointers.
And I don't know, because I have about 60 minutes a week to think about this, and also good quantitative market analysis is really hard.
So whilst it may sound like a good reposte to go "wow, I bet you make so much money shorting!" knowing that I don't and can't, it's also facile. Because I don't mind if I'm right in 12, 24 or 60 months. Fwiw, I thought I'd be right in 12 months, 12 months ago. Oops. Good thing I didn't attempt to "make money" in an endeavor where the upside is 100% of your wager, and the downside theoretically infinite.
LOL. It's paying off right now, because There Is No Alternative. But at some point, the companies and investors are going to want to make back these hundreds of billions. And the only people making money are Nvidia, and sort-of Microsoft through selling more Azure.
Once it becomes clear that there's no trillion dollar industry in cheating-at-homework-for-schoolkids, and nvidia stop selling more in year X than X-1, very quickly will people realize that the last 2 years have been a massive bubble.
In the modern world, if you do not have children, but instead save your income in a retirement fund, you have an even better claim to the labor of the next generation than the childrens' parents through your increased retirement fund.
Privatized X matched with socialized anti-X is the classic condition for a moral hazard to emerge.
A special kind of insanity that puts me in a mild, cold sweat. Such filesystems can come for your family too!
Worth noting, my father was an early adopter of the home computer. It's somehow regressed over the years.
Genuinely, who cares about sci-fi questions like this?
Why aren't you worrying about how fairly matching four-armed martial artists against two armed? Answer: because it's so unlikely to happen, it's not worth it. We're not getting 55 year olds with the body of a 25 year old, we're getting slim 55 year olds wearing make up and taking TRT. That's not youth! It's a dumb facsimile.
I see absolutely no way this incentive structure could be misused, after all, people wouldn't use bots to spam reviews out to hopefully farm upvotes, would they? Nope <:o)