benmanns

That’s correct. It’s pretty infrequent that I assume I know better than the market is pricing.

That doesn't change what the quoted pricing predicts. Theta means it's not free to make the bet. Also, with spreads like this, usually your short theta mostly cancels out your long theta, so it's not as expensive as you might think.

Buy 1 Dec 16, 2022 SPX $3,625 Put

Sell 1 Dec 16, 2022 SPX $3,600 Put

Midpoint price is $3.60 for $25 max gain if SPX is under $3,600, which implies something like a 14.4% chance that SPX is down by 20% more on Dec 16, 2022.

Perhaps they've all gotten big enough to run their own DNS?

's short for "is the list of"

I could see people doing this on old routers with outdated CA certs and etc. But agreed, it seems like a bad idea unless absolutely necessary.

Bids and asks are making bold predictions about the current value of an asset. If they are wrong then anyone can enter the market and make a profit. Bid/ask of 99.90/100.10 means that the true value of the asset is between 99.90 and 100.10, because if it was really worth $100.20 someone would come in and buy up all the offers through $100.19 (give or take a bit for risk management, fees, and minimum profit targets). Usually what happens though in these markets is that the bid/ask is $95/$105 and true value is something like $101 but no buyer wants to pay a $4 spread and no seller wants to pay a $6 spread, so no trades happen. The last price could be $90 from back when the asset was $90/$100 true value around $95 and someone really needed to get out and was willing to pay (or didn’t know).

Yeah, and a good level of “yup that makes sense, should work.” [crash] “wait what?!”

Patrick McKenzie (@patio11)'s https://www.kalzumeus.com/archive/

Interesting, this would give isolation and security at the expense of wasted CPU and memory while waiting on IO that could be run concurrently across multiple requests.

This is cool! At my day job I work on a lot of entity resolution/record linkage and have wanted to do something like this for TV/movie content. Maybe also linking against (ahem) non-official sources. How are you disambiguating different shows and movies and linking them to IMDb/TMDb?

GDAL and ogr2ogr has been helpful for converting formats into ones compatible with PostGIS for me.

https://gdal.org/index.html

https://gdal.org/programs/ogr2ogr.html

US law does. That may or may not be the case in the UK.

I don't have experience with video doorbells, but a pattern I use to find IoT devices is look at the Home Assistant integrations[1] for moderately open APIs, then drill down into each product to find one with "Local Polling" or "Local Push" for the classification, which means you can communicate with the device over LAN instead of only via cloud. More on that here[2]. Currently the only listed doorbell with a local option is DoorBird[3]. Note it's not exhaustive as I know there's at least one product I have that could be Local Polling but the current implementation is Cloud Polling.

[1]: https://www.home-assistant.io/integrations/#doorbell

[2]: https://www.home-assistant.io/blog/2016/02/12/classifying-th...

[3]: https://www.home-assistant.io/integrations/doorbird/

I bonds in particular are closer to a CD and are not transferable. If you have access to credit, you could borrow and pay it back once your I bond matures is cashable. Other Treasury notes can be sold, though if rates go up you may get back less than your principal, particularly on the longer duration notes.

I bonds in particular cannot be cashed out before 12 months, and before 5 years there is a penalty. Bonds are not covered by FDIC insurance and can default (though less relevant for US Treasury bonds which can print USD and more relevant for corporate/foreign bonds).

Yes. With enough inflation your house would become worth 10x and your mortgage now represents at most 10% of the new value. Fixed rate leverage is a bet that inflation is understated.

There are, roughly speaking. You can look at option pricing to see market predictions on various outcomes, at least ones that can be boiled down to "what will the price of SPY/TLT/EURUSD be in 2022?" If you have a better simulation, take your output and trade against the market where it's wrong.

I would be a lot more willing if 1. I could do it without attaching my public real life identity and 2. I actually got something out of it. There’s no collaborative filtering or anything going on, just risk of a libel lawsuit.

Only if "has medical emergencies" is independent from "drives to work." My guess is more medical emergencies happen in hospitals than on the road, even though the average person spends a lot less time in the hospital than on the road.

If we report p values around 0.05 wouldn’t you expect about 1 in 20 studies failing to replicate without being bad science?

Some that I bought:

https://xn--ujdaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa...

https://mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...

http://mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...

Why? They're the widest domains you can get within the character limits. Good for testing UI for bad wrapping with long data. Hacker News handles it pretty well.

Can you serve images directly from S3 static website hosting? You’ll avoid any cold start (and Lambda costs) that way. You could also put CloudFront or Cloudflare in front for caching after the first request.

You might miss out on some credit card rewards or protections (chargebacks, extended warranties, extended return periods, etc).

This is correct. Also NYC leases are pretty standard, and NYC laws are tenant friendly at least as far as subletting goes.

Agreed. There's not enough disincentive for wasting potential renters time filtering through listings or even touring apartments.

We used this pre-COVID to get out of a Brooklyn lease and had a fantastic experience (back when it was Flip Instant). Flip basically charged 1 month rent and guaranteed a fill or they'd pay the rest (6 months) of my lease. Compared to our landlord who wanted 1.75x rent, up to 2.75x rent if not filled immediately, after significant negotiation. Hiring a broker myself would have likely cost 1x rent or more anyways with all the risk on us.

I really like the service provider + financial underwriting combination, where you get basically an SLA for them providing a service, where they take 100% of the risk after the fee.

Do you have a recommendation on a quality smart lock for home use? Some ideal mix of security, style, open/compatible software.

Their 606 disclosure does have PFOF https://clearingcustody.fidelity.com/app/proxy/content?liter...

Everyone sells order flow. It’s: do you want sale of your order flow to be the only fee you pay or do you want to pay commissions on top of that, too?