234 karma · joined March 30, 2017
Your hand-waving also does precisely zero.
>If your Tesla breaks down you wont have any problem to get a comparable replacement car
What does this have to do with anything? I want to work on something I bought; isn't that what we're arguing about? The availability of a replacement is a straw man. Why are you apologizing for other companies that do precisely what is being described in the article?
I think you're going to be disappointed.
Us? Who is "us"? Why are you trying to shout down an opposing view? You want prefer the echo chamber?
>Replacing a fuel pump is not going to turn a tractor into a rampaging death machine.
Am I going to be able to replace whatever parts I want on my Model 3? Because "we" certainly love that company here!
When John Deere does this, HN is up in arms. When Tesla does it, it's part of an "innovative business model".
I have a hard time believing these are legitimately the most common passwords. Compare that to a list like this:
http://www.iflscience.com/technology/the-most-commonly-hacke....
Andreesen is a bit of a blowhard at times, but he's incredibly sharp and has a great track record. Trust, but verify.
This will never fly politically. You think lower-middle class people (the vast majority of the country) are going to agree to that?
I hear you. I've been an Audible subscriber for over 10 years, and I love audio books. But I don't find them much less "work" than reading. It's very easy to zone out, and more difficult than a book to get back on track.
I've resigned myself to keeping the non-fiction light, and going in with the understanding I'll probably have to listen to the book a few times.
I'd also like an answer. My theory is that these founders are "just like us!" as opposed to the grey-haired CEOs running stodgy companies.
We plead for transparency and accountability of executives...for all companies outside the Valley.
Huh? An IPO is literally going to the public to sell a stake in the company.
If you want to maintain control, don't go public. This has been a truism for 100 years.
Was it? Did you buy, make money, and sell?
What about the guy you sold to? Is he the Greater Fool? How much money do you make from buying and holding a stock that pays no dividends, forever?
Anyone can do $5BB in revenue by selling dollar bills for fifty cents.
Uber is a cool idea, but it's pretty hard to judge demand when you're subsidizing the price. I'm skeptical that they'll be able to simply "turn up prices" once they've captured the market.
How much of Uber's value comes from it's self-driving fleet potential, which might be starting from scratch?
Sort of like when there's any semblance of a financial scandal and HackerNews erupts, calling for not only a scalp but jail time (and worse, I've read here). SV execs get a pass?
Uber is a private company that, from everything I've read, is bleeding money and currently getting a ton of bad press.
How has it made anyone rich (yet)?
Personally, I don't question his motives, but you seem assured of something impossible for you to actually know.
It's at least questionable to have waited until Twitter was scraping its all time lows, and then selling a huge chunk of stock. He just learned he might need money yesterday?
They're a direct descendant of that ecosystem, which is designed --at least in part-- to take advantage of youngster's naivete. How many times has SV told us that ideas don't matter, that you need to hustle? These hackathons find those willing to put in the most work for little gain, besides "industry stature".
That said, on an individual level, I quite enjoy the scene.
How do they spend in relation to the other car makers? Do you think that auto manufacturing capex simply turns off one day? It's a capital intensive industry.
People who "just want to get to work" aren't buying cars that start at $35,000, either.
The analysis upon which you went "all-in" on Tesla rests on a non-GAAP "delivery" figure (rather than a sales number), covering a few quarters, 1 year before the first model 3 is even built? I'd be interested in seeing that work. What did you think when they missed 2016 delivery estimates by 5%?
Suddenly we believe in a rational market when it comes to Tesla? Everytime I ask basic valuation questions in these threads, I get touchy-feely answers about "potential". And HackerNews is supposed to be a data/tech place. Imagine what average Joe thinks?
Please show your math.
>Tesla will basically take the market from coal and petroleum.
And you base this off, what, exactly?
Sometimes I think that half of HackerNews didn't even know solar or battery backups were a thing before Tesla. These are competitive spaces where Tesla has essentially no market share (just like cars).
I think Tesla will be successful, but I doubt they end up market leader in any of these things.
Ford has been in business for almost 120 years, and has contributed untold billions to the economy. What a terrible company, am I right?
So we should learn all the things, ahead of time, just in case we get an interview question at some point in life?
I'm not looking for a "definitive way", I'm looking for a rational way to assist in pricing a stock. When something can't be forecast perfectly, we should cease forecasting it at all?
I'm just asking a simple question about what you'd pay for the stock, and why.
Those people are optimistic because they expect their share of profits to rise in the future.
This has nothing to do with a 2018 payout.
Do you know what you are buying when you buy a share of TSLA? You are buying a claim to future profits. You expect to be paid in the future: when and how much? If you can't answer those questions, why are you buying stocks ?
I think the exact opposite; buying stocks without knowing how much you are paying for profit is a mistake.
>It's almost a misnomer to call them technology stocks.
10 years ago Apple revolutionized the tech industry with a cell phone. Now they aren't a tech company?
>If you did your same math, could you have expected or predicted Amazon's AWS success?
Do you think the people behind AWS didn't model the potential cloud services market, and were taken by surprise by the success?
I'm not saying it's easy, but being tricky is no reason to ignore using what data we have.
This doesn't represent a single year payout, it represents a hypothetical annual payout of dividends.
If the payout comes later than 2018, then you should pay less for it today. So what year? How much will the earnings be? How will those earnings be achieved (how many cars sold)?
500,000 * $5,250 = $2.6 BB in profit
With ~160 MM shares outstanding that's an EPS of ~$16.
At $270/share, that's a P/E of ~17 -- cheap, but not incredibly so.
In other words, if everything goes perfectly, buying shares now would be "sort of cheap", equivalent to a ~6% return. Obviously, the shares have a lot of risk.
This is practically best-case. So how do you justify buying at these levels, with the risks involved? You can't say "growth" without modelling it. Do you expect TSLA to sell a million cars a year, or more with these types of margins? Where will the earnings come from?
808themovie.com/