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bilbo0s

9,849 karma · joined April 29, 2007

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bilbo0s··on Baidu released ERNIE 5.5 Flash Base
That's where you've misunderstood Baidu's intent.

They don't care to enforce it, only to check the box that says they told you open weight models are all but illegal in EU, UK, and South Korea.

"You cannot use our models in these regions."

<wink wink> <nudge nudge>

Now it's on the EU, UK and South Korea to stop users from downloading and running those models.

All that said, the EU, UK and South Korea, if they want to, are all more than capable of making life a living perdition for people who do run those models. So I wouldn't say it's "not enforceable". Only that it probably won't be enforced in the fashion one would think these rules would be enforced.

bilbo0s··on Google researchers demand freedom to tell the world what they know about AI
I'm having a challenging time communicating what I'm saying.

Please understand, it's a job. I spot a threat to my unit, I report it up the chain of command.

It's not about whether or not there is a negative impact on me. It's not even about whether or not it serves a greater good; nor whether there is an ultimate benefit to my unit; nor whether I get brownie points when whatever you deem divine evaluates my soul in the hereafter.

It's my job to report. So I report.

I've never once considered the things you're talking about now when I was in any such situation. It was just a job.

Here's the thing, it kind of made me just automatically think a certain way. I know that if I see an existential threat, I'm reporting it. I believe anyone would. Not for benefit. Just because that's what you do. If you see a mass shooting in progress, you call the cops. I don't think there is a single person who thinks about negative impact or greater good. It's just automatic.

I was only saying that if the NDA would prevent them from reporting, then, to my mind, the threat is likely not existential. But, again, I do make room for the possibility that not everyone thinks like me. I just think it's very likely that people think exactly as I do when faced with that level of threat.

Maybe I'm wrong? That's fine.

bilbo0s··on Google researchers demand freedom to tell the world what they know about AI
>Given the risk/reward assessment of those two options, what do you pick?

Listen, I understand that, owing very likely to our differing backgrounds, you and I think differently.

Where threats are concerned, I'm a simple soldier and as such I see things simply.

I would raise the alarm without a second thought. I honestly don't know how anyone could reasonably believe they would have any other option?

bilbo0s··on Google researchers demand freedom to tell the world what they know about AI
Just, Devil's Advocate, but what would be the benefit of your career if all humans (or even just a few billions of humans) are going to die?

I think it's reasonable to assume that if it's not worth breaking the NDA, it's likely not an existential threat for the vast majority of humanity.

Now, does that mean that people who currently work upper-middle class knowledge work jobs aren't in for an exceedingly harsh economic reality check? Absolutely not.

But that's not really as serious as an existential threat to humanity.

bilbo0s··on Why are Soviet math textbooks so hardcore in comparison to US textbooks? (2017)
The issue is not what happens in high school.

The issue is that when all of these AP/Honors Calc people get to college they don't even make it to Simpson's rule before they're weeded out. That's the problem that most college professors are talking about. How are we creating more and more and more AP/Honors/"Gifted" kids every year, yet the performance of all of these kids when they enter university is abysmal? How is first semester calculus a "weed-out" course when so many of these kids enter with transcripts indicating they've already taken calculus?

I mean, I can totally see where the professors are coming from. We send every state flagship university what all of these very good high schools claim are the cream of the crop, and many of the students sent are just not up to the task. It has to be the school system at some point?

bilbo0s··on Why are Soviet math textbooks so hardcore in comparison to US textbooks? (2017)
>From my personal experience, people who are successful usually come from highly educated and/or wealthy families .. [from overseas]. FTFY

As someone acquainted with the insides of AI labs, and who has worked with NIWs in the past, I can tell you the extent to which our advances are dependent on migrant brainpower long ago crossed the "we're able to deny it" threshold.

Most people think of skilled immigration as H1Bs. It's not. H1B is to NIW as TF/PyTorch monkey is to real AI expert. They're just not, at all, the same thing.

bilbo0s··on China's First Frontier AI Export Controls: Mofcom Announcement No. 48
They are dumping products (models) below cost. It's just that they are not dumping their latest and greatest products (models).

The models they dump may not be good by the latest Chinese or US standards, but they are far and away better than anything anyone outside of China or the US is able to come up with.

So until we start seeing EU models or South American models or African models that are better than the models being dumped onto the market, China will not be giving us anything better.

And again, it's gonna be a long long time before the rest of the world even gets to the effectiveness of some of the Chinese models being dumped. Let alone competing with the best models China or the US possess.

bilbo0s··on China's First Frontier AI Export Controls: Mofcom Announcement No. 48
It's actually extremely smart.

Latest and greatest China is able to make is reserved for the use of businesses and entities in the Chinese market.

Everyone else gets access to models of more limited capabilities.

It's basically the US strategy. Obvious difference being only that the Chinese allow on prem hosting of the lesser models. So plus one to them I guess.

If we want to move China or the US on from the whole, "super intelligence models for me, more limited intelligence models for everyone else" strategy, then "everyone else" will have to come up with some models competitive with the latest and greatest from the US and China. Absent that, there's just no pressure to bring the US and China to the "share the wealth" table.

Unfortunately, "everyone else" coming up with a competitive model is not gonna happen anytime soon.

bilbo0s··on Why Did Meta Suspend a US Senate Candidate's Instagram in the Middle of a Rally?
It wasn’t the FTL and travel..

But as a pass time, I’m fair certain Holodecks buried pretty much everything else for good. Movies, songs, books, and as hard as it may be for tech people to believe..

Even social media.

bilbo0s··on ‘You Are Done’: The letter sent to King by the F.B.I (2014)
I have a black friend who I once referred to an HN post for more information on a topic we were discussing. Hs informed me that he doesn't go to HN, "That place is a Klan rally", were his words IIRC. At any rate, I said that a lot of it is 4chan, but there's some quality there, afterall, I use HN.

He looked at me and smiled. Went back to his coding.

I just want to put it out there that just because you happen to be in a place with a lot of unsavory people doesn't mean you, yourself are unsavory. We shouldn't paint everyone with so Catholic a brush. You have to go to the grocery store, but so do pedophiles, drug lords, and wife abusers. That's kind of how I see HN.

Yes. It's a crap hole.

But some neighborhoods just have crap hole grocery stores. Tech is kind of one of those "neighborhoods", and HN is a grocery store. You don't have to socialize with the other customers, and you can restrict yourself to only buying the decent foods on offer.

bilbo0s··on ‘You Are Done’: The letter sent to King by the F.B.I (2014)
>What's crazy is that most of the accusations against his moral character are true.

To be fair, it's also true that we need more people like him and fewer people like the ones on the other side.

bilbo0s··on Evidence of a spying operation by ICE against left-wing social movements
For me it wasn't so much that he was the only one to vote against it, as it was that when he did vote against it the people of his state promptly replaced him with a more Law and Order senator.

In the US we claim we want freedom, privacy, and all that good stuff. But where the rubber meets the road, it becomes pretty clear that we don't.

bilbo0s··on Evidence of a spying operation by ICE against left-wing social movements
>But at a moment's notice their allegiance can switch.

Or, more appropriately, on an election's notice.

A plurality of voters preferred to have leaders of a certain political persuasion.

Now, we can complain about the fine print in the platform of those leaders, but..

I mean..

democracy is a team sport. We voted them in.

It's like football:

Yes.

That's an awesome DB. Guy got 2 interceptions and 4 TFLs in that game. I'd love to get that safety for my team.

All that said, his offense didn't score. So guess what? He gets to take an "L" too. That's just how it works.

bilbo0s··on New iMac with M6
>The generation doesn't mater as much to me as the memory bandwidth

I don't know man?

The generation kind of does matter. I'm not gonna lie, matrix multiplication units speed things up considerably. That hardware confers a material change in capability.

Maybe from M5 up, it doesn't matter? But you're definitely going to notice the difference between M1 and M5 for instance.

bilbo0s··on Roblox downloaded 145GB models from us (including adult content) without asking
You laugh, but this is the kind of data that allows you to train models that actually catch a lot of corner cases, as well as generalizing to other 3D applications.

I'm not gonna comment on the morality of mass acquisition of all of this data, but as someone who deals in 3d in the medical/dental space everyday..

there's absolutely no doubt that all of that data is as valuable as gold in research.

On a tangential but related note..

I mean, people in possession of troves of data, especially in the medical or 3D industries, really ought to start understanding the value of the data they're sitting on. You can give it away if you like, but don't be upset when someone turns it into a couple hundred billion dollars and doesn't compensate you.

If you won't like it if tech companies rip you off, then take the legally required steps to protect your data. (That includes making sure you licensed your data properly. And protecting your data with explicit use licenses and, potentially, even access controls.)

bilbo0s··on Where Wealth Is Moving in America
It's worse than that..

the numbers in the chart, for instance, are from 2023.

bilbo0s··on macOS 15.8.2 Breaks OpenGL
>and awkward tangents

Especially on special internet forums, HN included, bots are generally paid for by professional influence campaigns so..

Yeah..

Whatever those AI's have to do to shape the conversation to get their message in, that's what they'll do. And that's going to sound pretty awkward to human ears.

bilbo0s··on ICE Planning $100M 'Nightmare' Domestic Spy Program
I don't think you've understood.

The fraud a migrant may have committed, should the US be able to prove it, is lying on their asylum request when they said they would be, for instance, killed if they ever go back to their country of origin.

Obviously if you show up at your country of origin with a US passport asking to be let in, it casts serious doubt as to the veracity of the assertion that you will be killed if you ever go back to your country of origin.

Here's the thing, the US has to prove it. Which previous administrations never bothered to go to the trouble of doing. However, this administration is pouring over travel records, airline passenger manifests, cell phone and text message data, etc etc. They've taken to pursuing these cases.

All that to say this, now is not the time to believe there is some legal trickety-trick you can use to get around these issues. Your passport would mean nothing in the case that the Trump-Vance MAGA boys prove fraud, because you would have been shown to have used fraudulent statements to attain that passport.

So to any immigrants out there, please, please, please, don't play games with these people. Because they are not playing games with you. Be very careful to keep your story, (the one you told immigration), and your actions consistent. At minimum until such time as Trump leaves office. But in my opinion, you should probably just strive for consistency from here on out. Because MAGA can be elected back into power at any time convenient even if they lose the next few elections.

And if they get elected again, when they come back, you can bet everything you own that they will be digging through that data from the time they were out of power.

bilbo0s··on Container ship sinks in Strait of Hormuz as Iran steps up attacks
Unfortunately, it does when you're trying to lay hands on the Perps.

You find, in fairly short order, that you come up against the raw realities of power.

And all 3 of these Perps have power they can exert that no one is really wanting to test right now.

Not optimal, just kind of how it is at the moment.

bilbo0s··on Container ship sinks in Strait of Hormuz as Iran steps up attacks
I don't think the poster said the US and Israel don't commit war crimes. Only that Iran also commits them.
bilbo0s··on ICE Planning $100M 'Nightmare' Domestic Spy Program
To be fair, they're not disappearing anyone.

They don't need to, because the US has a finely honed system of railroading.

They push captured migrants through the system to deportation via a "rocket docket" and our rubber stamp justice system.

The system being discussed simply allows them to lay their hands on more migrants to feed that existing quick deportation pipeline.

It's worse than disappearing people. Disappearing people implies they need to hide what they're doing from an objectionable public. Clearly, the people currently in power are blessed with a constituency they don't need to hide from.

bilbo0s··on ICE Planning $100M 'Nightmare' Domestic Spy Program
This.

Also, with this administration, if you didn't dot an 'i' or cross a 't' somewhere in your paperwork, citizenship can be revoked.

Basically, if they catch you in any kind of lie. It's fraud.

Could be ex post facto and seemingly innocuous act unconnected to paperwork as well. You came in. Applied for asylum. Went through the process. And, finally, you were naturalized.

Only you traveled back to your hometown in your country of origin at some point. Before or after naturalization.

Boom.

They got you. That's fraud.

Everyone needs to stay extra careful going forward.

bilbo0s··on AI is mass decompiling games. That's both awesome and scary
But you would need to collect that volume of footage. Then create a training set. Then pay for training.

Only one of those gets cheaper and faster with time. (And that's just me guessing it will get cheaper. I could be wrong.)

In any case, the other two scale up with the complexity of the game being streamed. The AAA studios can simply overwhelm with complexity and content. Especially since AI will be generating an increasing majority of the game anyway as time goes on. If it's playable for a year's worth of hours, good luck downloading enough video to replicate it.

Maybe Twitch or youtube could if they incentivised enough streamers to stream their play sessions? Of course, why would Twitch or Youtube give that dataset to you?

It's just not as easy as people are making it out to be.

bilbo0s··on Worlds more habitable than Earth?
And what happens when they encounter a GRB?

Interstellar travel is not a propulsion problem. It's a space travel problem. The medium itself, is the vast majority of the problem.

bilbo0s··on Worlds More Habitable Than Earth? They're Out There
>given what we know about physics at the present?

No.

My hypothesis has always been, hey, have enough kids out there, and sooner or later, they'll learn enough about the physical sciences to at least explore far away worlds. (If not go there in person.)

But yeah, expecting we can get there with what we currently know is a bit naive. We need to, <gasp>, horror of horrors, fund more research.

bilbo0s··on China Overtakes U.S. For First Time as Top Spender on R&D in 2024
This is the real answer.

But noone is gonna want to hear it.

bilbo0s··on YouTuber Says Cops Visited Him After He Built a Flock-Style Camera to Track Cops
That actually sounds like a lot.

To me, it's like a bad shoot. How many unarmed, completely innocent black guys would you be able to shoot because a less than qualified officer "thought his apartment was hers" for instance?

I obviously don't know, but I'm betting the black community, at least in my country (USA), wouldn't countenance anywhere even close to 81 black guys getting shot over nothing like that before we'd hear from them.

I had no idea it was 81. That's a level at which it makes me genuinely wonder why there aren't more protests?

There's way too many departments out there being run like frat houses. This is serious work. You got woman problems you can't separate from the job? Get out, or your leadership should be running you out in a well run department.

bilbo0s··on Iranian campaign planted fake articles in real U.S. publications using ChatGPT
Well it’s mostly other entities running influence campaigns.

Thats true.

But this article is about the influence campaigns presumably tun by the Iranian government.

bilbo0s··on Iranian campaign planted fake articles in real U.S. publications using ChatGPT
>95%???

That low?

In all honesty, given the volume of comments, posts and articles that bots can generate in a given time period? I mean it’s gotta be several orders of magnitude higher than what humans can generate.

And then you factor in the fact that even most of the humans are astroturfing..

The percentage of influence campaigns we interact with has just gotta be really high.

bilbo0s··on Mathematics of Geothermal Energy
You guys are imaginative, I'll give you that.

But there are so many more fundamental problems with the high altitude Venusian colony idea that you would never get to the "temperature gradients > power" pipeline implementation in any case.

I mean right off the bat, imagine building or navigating anything in hurricane Katrina. Then, since we're talking 50km, imagine winds that would make the forces you're dealing with an order of magnitude more problematic.

Yeah, in terms of knowledge and technology, mankind is just not there yet to be perfectly frank.

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