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carbonatedmilk

187 karma · joined September 20, 2013

I'm a data scientist / ML Engineer / AI Researcher at an International Humanitarian Agency. Email: itstrue@iamcarbonatedmilk.com
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carbonatedmilk··on Every Claim from Meta Child Safety Trials
Interested in the outcome of both of these cases, but also in what went in to building the site. It feels agent-led, but in a good way.

@laurex are you the creator? Can you tell us some more about how it was built?

carbonatedmilk··on FDA declines to review Moderna's mRNA flu shot
Context from the CDC guidance from August 2025 (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/74/wr/mm7432a2.htm)

"Except for vaccination for adults aged ≥65 years, ACIP makes no preferential recommendation for a specific vaccine when more than one licensed and recommended vaccine is available. Among adults aged ≥65 years any one of the following higher dose or adjuvanted influenza vaccines is preferentially recommended: HD-IIV3, RIV3, or aIIV3. If none of these three vaccines is available at an opportunity for vaccine administration, any other available age-appropriate influenza vaccine should be used (4,5)"

carbonatedmilk··on Open Source takes center stage at United Nations
Many UN agencies are already working hard to inculcate an open source / open methods / open data approach to everything they do.

There's a key standard for this: Digital Public Goods, which you can read lots more about here:

https://digitalpublicgoods.net/

https://unicef.github.io/publicgoods-toolkit/

https://digitalprinciples.org/#principles

If this sounds like fun to you, here's a couple of my favourite Digital Public Goods that have great communities and make real impact:

https://github.com/primeroIMS/primero

https://github.com/rapidpro/rapidpro

https://github.com/ckan/ckan

https://github.com/dhis2/dhis2-core

carbonatedmilk··on My Clients, the Liars
This happens frequently in courts in my home country. There's even polite lawyer codewords so that you don't have to trudge in to court and say

'I'm sorry your honor, I have to withdraw from this matter because my client, who is a bit dim, has just told me at the lunch break that he totally did the thing, and also that he's going to lie his ass off about it when he gets up in the witness box in just a minute'

But the next time you hear a lawyer withdraw because they're 'forensically embarrassed', you'll know what happened

carbonatedmilk··on Waymo recalls software after two self-driving cars hit the same truck
One of the best things I've learnt recently is how to apply the zero blame, process improvement approach that (many) air safety regulators take to my own teams.

I'd sat through 'five whys' style postmortems before, but it was reading air safety investigation reports that finally got me to understand it and make it a useful part of how we get better at our jobs.

By comparison, the way we're investigating and responding to self-driving safety incidents still seems very primitive. Why is that?

carbonatedmilk··on Lawyers who cited fake cases hallucinated by ChatGPT must pay
From the Sanctions Order: "The Levidow Firm primarily practices in New York state courts. It uses a legal research service called Fastcase and does not maintain Westlaw or LexisNexis accounts. When Mr. Schwartz began to research the Montreal Convention, the firm’s Fastcase account had limited access to federal cases."

And isn't that as big a story? That in 2023, in the richest country in the world, there's no publicly searchable index of the laws of the country?

carbonatedmilk··on Where did FTX customer money go? Firm says Bankman-Fried took $2.2B
This just keeps getting weirder.

From the infamous irony quotes 'balance sheet': https://d1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net/production/7ab64a3b-6c...

Liablities: $8.8bn of customer deposits

* $6.6bn-ish in USD or USDT

* $2.2bn in crypto

* I'm assuming the 'poorly labelled $8bn' is included in this amount, and you don't add it

Assets: $2.5bn?

* $1.5bn of liquid assets.

* $1bn-ish? of illiquid assets.

* Most of these numbers are just made up, but let's finger-in-the-wind them at $1bn ($500m at least is in 'locked USDT')

Now we find out they have another magical pool of money, the $3.2bn that they'd taken out of FTX and put in their pockets.

So the position looks really different: They had $8.8bn on one side of the ledger, and $5.7bn on the other side - After the massive bank run which collapsed the price of their shitcoins.

It appears they had the money to pay out most of their USD / USDT depositors at $0.85 on the dollar, which is obviously still 'insolvent', but possibly enough to survive a bank run (almost) all the way down to the ground (If you suspend redemptions of your crypto and persuade 15% of your USD depositors not to pull their money out)

The final question is: Who did they owe the liabilities to? If some of those 'deposits' were actually owed to other FTX-associated entities, it seems even more survivable, and would probably have preserved some of the value of their shitcoins

carbonatedmilk··on Beyond Meat is struggling, and the plant-based meat industry worries
My 7 year old son is vegetarian - Neither of his parents are (although we've always tried to be awake to the ethical implications of what we eat)

When I asked him why he'd gone so all-in on vegetarianism, he said "Daddy, animals are my friends. And you don't eat your friends"

The little bastard derived the whole thing from first principles, with no input from his parents.

I've tried to use the vegetable-based mince alternatives in pasta sauce, and we're always really unsatisfied with the results. He much prefers lentils / tofu / tempeh and frankly so do we.

We're in the target demographic for these products, and I can tell you: THe problem isn't the price, the branding or the level of ethical awareness. It's the product! It's a lousy substitute for the meat-based alternative, and it doesn't even stack up well against the raw ingredients they're derived from, which have the advantages of being cheaper and tasting better.

carbonatedmilk··on Twitter to employees: all office buildings closed, badge access suspended
> I'm pretty sure almost all of this team was laid off (certainly the people I knew who worked on it were).

That's really sad news. The crew I interacted with (Alex, Omari, Tobias, others) were top-flight engineers who also really understood the problem space and how to navigate the internal complexities of Meta. Hope the laid off / repositioned staff are OK, and if they're looking for new opportunities my email's in my profile.

carbonatedmilk··on Twitter to employees: all office buildings closed, badge access suspended
I'm not saying it's a fair metric, but when I compare Twitter's open output to similarly VC-funded-but-now-public companies, the engineering output doesn't seem particularly exciting.

For comparison:

Meta / Facebook:

* React

* PyTorch

* Fasttext

* Their unsung-but-indispensible-for-humanitarian-orgs Data for Good program

Google:

* Flutter

* Go

* Kubernetes

* Tensorflow

* BERT / Large language models generally

* Mapreduce / Hadoop

The much-maligned Uber:

* H3 Geospatial indexing

* Kepler.gl

* Manifold

Even AirBNB!

* Airflow

* Superset

I use most of these products (or their descendants) every day in my work. When I think of Twitter, all I think of is how they arbitrarily shut off humanitarian access to their APIs (and earlier, the Twitter firehose). There's not a single Twitter-supported open product that I use.

Am I the only one? Is there a great Twitter-supported project that I missed?

carbonatedmilk··on Mastodon gained 70k users after Musk’s Twitter takeover
For comparison, the old, dying, 'legacy' social media platform Facebook added 24MILLION new users in the same period. https://www.statista.com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly...

To rub it in - If Facebook & Mastodon were the only two social networks to 'switch' to, FB captured 99.8% of the 'switchers'. If 24 Million new users had signed up for Mastodon, that would be a story. That only 0.2% of them chose Mastadon shows how bad the open, federated alternative really is.

carbonatedmilk··on Flying the Unflyable Plane: The near crash of Air Astana flight 1388
Even though the author is critical of the GPIAAF's report, it's amazing to see how thoroughly incidents like this one are investigated - With a real focus on process improvement. Frustrating that the obvious mechanical fix for this (have different shaped connectors for each aerilon cable) wasn't adopted by Embraer, but still a great reminder of how we can do incident handling better in software dev
carbonatedmilk··on Ask HN: Firing an employee under a month before vest?
Get them out, but let them vest.

Don't delay the decision - You've had performance conversations with them already, so this won't come as a surprise.

Tell them they're on leave immediately, and then pay them whatever they're owed in terms of leave, set their effective termination date for just after their vesting date.

Talk to the team, explain that it didn't work out, but that you're not the kind of founding team who will screw someone out of their equity weeks or months before their cliff.

The team will respect you doubly : For getting the under-performer out of their team, and for treating them fairly. This may sting a bit, it's your company and you're killing yourself to try and make it worth something.

Consider that the cost of learning how to be a better boss and not having made the hard decision earlier.

If you go the other way, you risk killing your velocity and losing the people you need.

carbonatedmilk··on Vectis IP Announces Call for Patents Essential to the Opus codec
Prior art: https://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/02/24/telegraph-cat/
carbonatedmilk··on Improving Firefox Responsiveness on macOS
I've recently switched from Firefox to Orion. Ideologically, I'm Firefox all the way - But even in beta, Orion is such a better browser. * Vertical tabs * Support for most of the extensions I need * Much better battery life (at least 1hr+ extra on my 14" M1 Pro MBP) * Better RAM usage

I get the occasional tab freeze / crash, and it has some glitches with Google Docs / Sheets, but it just feels so much faster and uses much less RAM too

carbonatedmilk··on Why Jony Ive left Apple to the ‘accountants’
There have been some notable failures - Where they've got the tradeoffs between form and function badly wrong. * Butterfly keyboard * iPhone headphone jack * Single-USB Macbook Air * Non-removeable battery used to really bug me, but the M1's incredible battery life has sort of mitigated that now. The surprising thing to note is - Since Ive's departure, the design decisions have been generally better, and led by great engineering. The M1 Macbook Air is a beautiful bit of industrial design that's a joy to look at and use - The last clunky bit, screen bezels, is a job for the engineering team too. I think that the Apple of today wouldn't have ditched the iPhone headphone jack, that was the design team drunk on their earlier successes (Removing Floppy / CD drives just slightly ahead of the technology curve), making the wrong call about where the technology was up to. They won't undo it now (it's embarrassing, and there's good money in selling the only bluetooth headphones that you don't spend your life pairing and unpairing), but the UX (For someone who sits at their desk 99% of the time) is clearly worse than a headphone cable.
carbonatedmilk··on Ask HN: How do I create a social movement to change the world?
Hi Andrew, A bit different from usual HN fare, but here's a quick nerdy breakdown of how to build power / advocate / get laws changed.

You have an audacious, but specific goal. That's great!

You have at least one person who cares about the outcome of your campaign (you). That's good, you'll need more

1. You need a power map. https://commonslibrary.org/power-mapping/ is a good resource to get you started. Get together some mates, preferably ones who've interacted with the political process before (They'll be more likely to know the players) and start mapping. Once you've got a good power map, that's a good time to reflect: Does this campaign still seem achievable? Is there too much power in the top-left quadrant, and not enough in the top right / middle? Movements that lack a good 'center' of persuadable+influential actors generally fizzle out, so you might want to consider tailoring your campaign goal.

2. You need a theory of change. How do we get from here to there? https://www.thechangeagency.org/?s=theory+of+change is a good start. Don't lock in to a particular tactic too readily, and be prepared to iterate

3. You need power. This both informs and influences your theory of change. Is your power electoral, financial, social?

4. You need a logframe. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logical_framework_approach How will you know if your campaign is working? What intermediate metrics of success can you identify that are both impactful and measurable?

There's a mountain of campaign theory and literature to read, but that's enough to get you started assessing if your campaign is a goer at all. Hope it helps

carbonatedmilk··on Elizabeth Holmes fails to keep customer complaints, test results out of trial
The fake voice is interesting - She read all the literature that people with deeper voices get more respect, more funding and are given the benefit of the doubt more often.

And she said 'Well, that seems easy. I'll just talk lower'

This is the kind of thing 'growth hacker' types would normally idolise, rather than ridicule.

I think the voice thing has been conflated with the fact that she was running a huge scam, which we've decided is generally ok when you're making a food delivery app, but is definitely not ok when you're testing people for HIV.

carbonatedmilk··on Elon Musk Lives in a Prefab Tiny Home That He Doesn’t Even Own, a Boxabl Casita
Love the idea of pre-fab, but this thing is just charmless.

Fake-wood plastic floors

Fake-wood MDF cabinetry, with superfluous detailing

Plastic benchtops

Horrible overhead lighting layout.

The 'LCD television-as-wall-divider' is the cherry on top of this nightmare.

The problem isn't simply that they've chosen cheap, poor-substitute materials, the whole thing has been thrown together with no sense of design or cohesion.

Good design costs almost nothing - Contrast it with this Australian modular / pre-fab: https://www.dwell.com/article/wattle-bank-tiny-shipping-cont...

It also uses inexpensive materials (Untreated plywood for the interiors, shipping containers for the structure), but it's thoughtfully designed and quite beautiful.

carbonatedmilk··on A compact quantum-computer that fits in 19-inch server racks
"Where should we put it?" "Just anywhere over there" "What about in this server rack?" "Sure, that's a super position"
carbonatedmilk··on Open Database of 100M Hospital Prices
Presumably this is because the default rate amongst uninsured patients is much higher than insured patients. You might have to fight the insurer to get your $1m, but you know for sure they have it.
carbonatedmilk··on Send: A Fork of Mozilla's Firefox Send
love Wormhole, but that animated background chews up an incredible amount of battery power on my M1 Macbook Air (even when the tab is in the background). Please wormhole crew, turn it off.
carbonatedmilk··on I got 10k post karma on Reddit with (and without) fast.ai
I don't understand why the author took the approach he did.

He creates a classifier with 5 label,s and gets 50% accuracy on the cross-val (This may be ok, may be terrible, we don't know), but then only uses the labels for one of those classes. What's the precision/recall on that class?

Also, he's taken a multi-class classification approach to what is essentially a regression task. He's trying to predict the # of upvotes a post will get, and there are approaches that'll do that, but this isn't one of them.

It's fun to see NLP applied to these sort of problems, but this isn't a good example of how to do it well.

carbonatedmilk··on Cyberpunk 2077 Publisher Orders 6-Day Weeks
This isn't an EA Spouse situation. EA Spouse's partner was working 70+ hr weeks, unpaid. It was just straight worker exploitation. Here (as I understand it), everyone's getting paid overtime and while it's a big ask of the employees, there is something genuinely different about creative endeavors. A few months of 48 hour weeks isn't good for long term creative output, but it's somewhere in the realm of reasonable.

It'd be good to have some better incentives for management to resource and schedule properly (time and a half @ 40hrs, double time @ 48, quadruple time @ 60 would seem an obvious economic stick), but if employees are getting paid fairly I think this is ok. Hope the game is great, and that everyone who is putting in the extra work feels tonnes of pride of authorship in this game. I'm looking forward to it.

carbonatedmilk··on Facebook to block news on Australian sites after new law, riling lawmakers
That never made any sense to me either. It's not like there's a huge pool of people saying 'Oh I really like that new Taylor Swift song, should I buy the album, or just go to the hairdressing salon and listen to it there?'. It's not a substitute good.

In the case of Facebook, I imagine there are people who read the headline + snippet on Facebook, look at the photo and then don't click the linked article, which seems more like actual infringement of the copyright. It's not the same as taking the entire newspaper and replacing all the ads with your own, but it's a bit like that, enough that I can see what the intention of the law was. It's all complicated by the fact that the news organisations currently facilitate the process, and obviously at some point they thought it was worth it

carbonatedmilk··on People think they're calling restaurants directly but Grubhub is getting a fee
So confused. Do you not have tort law in the US? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passing_off
carbonatedmilk··on Uber discusses plan to lay off about 20% of employees
Yeah, except they did rewrite the entire Mattermost mobile clients in React Native (And contributed it back, too - https://eng.uber.com/uchat/) Look, I'm all for Uber firing some of their 27,000 employees (27,000 seems like the wrong number), but their engineering team make a tonne of cool stuff and are really good open source citizens. H3 Geospatial indexing, Kepler.gl, and yes the Mattermost react native client - I use them all every day. Maybe let's trim in the HR and marketing departments, instead?
carbonatedmilk··on I Used to Write for Sports Illustrated. Now I Deliver Packages for Amazon
I used to fill in gaps between consulting work with delivering people's food on my bicycle. I loved it too - It had a gamified feeling to it, and was like getting paid to go to the gym. Uber gives you an estimate when you start the trip, and I enjoyed pushing myself a little bit on the hills to try and 'beat the average'. The pay was miserable, between $10-15/hr ($7-10 USD) depending on whether you got 2 or 3 deliveries in the hour, but in a bike friendly city it was quite a fun way to spend an hour or two getting some serious exercise.
carbonatedmilk··on The Google Pixel 3 Is a Very Good Phone. But Maybe Phones Have Gone Too Far
I didn't know https://twitter.com/nihilist_arbys was doing phone reviews now too.
carbonatedmilk··on The End of Video Coding?
This makes entire sense to me: When you're going to stream the episode of Stranger things to 15million people, who really cares what the one-time cost to encode is? Surely you'd take algorithmic complexity that was 100x or even 1000x the baseline if it provided you with even a few kB of bandwidth savings?
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