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cascom

1,986 karma · joined May 7, 2018

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cascom··on Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?
I wish I could recall the reference (as the below is not my original thinking), but I’ve Heard something along the following postulated:

1. Russia has a deep seated psychological worry about invasion from the west across the open plains of Eastern Europe (Poland/Ukraine) (Napoleanic wars, Ww 1, ww2) so creating a buffer is of geostrategic importance (old Soviet Warsaw Pact / satellite states. Merely having a nato member bordering Russia may stoke this anxiety (if Ukraine were to join nato)

2. The window for action is closing driven by a)population decline b) decreasing foreign reliance and wealth created from Russian energy wealth (oil/ nat gas)

cascom··on More than 1M fewer students are in college, the lowest numbers in 50 years
You don’t need to be an owner management in welding (though that is definitely the better path), but you have to be great welder and you have to be willing to work long and hard (most people I know wouldn’t make it through a shift working on a refinery turnaround in PPE on the gulf coast in September).
cascom··on Choosing a Bank for Your Startup
I’m of the opinion most startups are best served by either their local bank or credit union (where they can go talk to someone - but usually have antiquated tech ) or just the basic business checking from a large money center bank (BofA, Chase, etc) don’t overthink it unless there is some API/Technology stack you need to use.
cascom··on Prices and wages in Medieval England (2014)
Think it’s 75x not 7.5x
cascom··on More Americans are saying they’re ‘vaxxed and done’
This takes place daily in any ER on a low intensity basis (broken arm can wait for the heart attack), but hospitals specifically consider the 100 people dying 20 beds situations when they train for mass casualty events (with specific doctors and nurses tasked with triaging incoming patients)
cascom··on More Americans are saying they’re ‘vaxxed and done’
I was under the impression that this was already a solved question in the medical community (essentially boiled down to: who will benefit the most from treatment)

Or are you talking about other considerations like vaxxed/in-vaxxed?

cascom··on Why do 70% of families lose their wealth in the 2nd generation? (2018)
I don’t have the numbers at my fingertips but I believe it’s institutional money (pensions, endowments, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, etc) that are the real drive asset prices, not the marginal high net worth buyer
cascom··on Why do 70% of families lose their wealth in the 2nd generation? (2018)
Fair point, but Procreation + divorce / kids in multiple marriages will typically exponentially whittle it down (not crazy to think that a trust could go from 3 to 40+ beneficiaries over 60 years)

+ trust fees / poor management

cascom··on Why do 70% of families lose their wealth in the 2nd generation? (2018)
Not sure how we are defining wealth here, but for 99% of Americans this is a non-issue given the estate tax exemption of $12m/individual $24m/couples. Perpetual trusts are a boon to the super rich, but doesn’t change the math for everyone else. So don't honestly see this moving the needle much
cascom··on Why do 70% of families lose their wealth in the 2nd generation? (2018)
Not sure how we are defining wealth here, but for 99% of Americans this is a non-issue given the estate tax exemption of $12m/individual $24m/couples. Perpetual trusts are a boon to the super rich, but doesn’t change the math for everyone else.
cascom··on How to quit like a boss
It’s the company and supervisor’s job to manage the success of that team, if someone leaving with standard notice of 2-3 weeks creates such a problem, that’s on management. a good supervisor should be proactively ensuring that key individuals are “fulfilled” in the role and/or be backfilling the role.

The employee has no duty to their co-workers/team above good manners/civility and faithfully working towards a handoff.

cascom··on Ask HN: How to continue to be gracious about the good fortune of rich friends?
few disjointed thoughts:

1) ditch the friends that aren't self aware ("I made a $1m on my house in one year") but not the ones that want to spend time with you and are just talking about their life

2) its relative, all relative, I'm sure they have friends that they're envious of, and i suspect if someone gave you $10m and gave all your friends $50m you might still feel the same way

3)separate the material things from the feelings your experiencing [1 below]

4) don't focus only on the money, would you want their spouse, health problems, family, work-stress etc?

5) find other ways to reciprocate with your friends without feeling embarrassed/that you can do cheaply, invite them to a beach picnic, or bbq in the park etc.

[1] when i was junior professional my peers all had fancy watched (either purchased or given to them) and i was envious / wanted to blend in - i was given some good advice, and instead of buying a watch to blend in I put the money into a discrete mutual fund, that i could redeem at at any time to buy the watch...after a few months of sticking with my casio (but knowing i could buy the watch)...i didn't really care about it any more and wasn't envious/self-conscious anymore...it was all in my head.

cascom··on Ask HN: How to continue to be gracious about the good fortune of rich friends?
I've seen this myself as well and really can echo that it's all relative...funnily enough i think a lot of the OPs friends probably talk about material things because they're in just as much of a "keeping up with the joneses" mindset as well
cascom··on Ask HN: How to continue to be gracious about the good fortune of rich friends?
not to mention that I know people with way more money that me that if asked, would you want to trade places with them its an easy "no-way"
cascom··on U-Haul Growth Index: Florida Has 10 of Top U.S. Growth Cities
is self moving a good indicator? wouldn't it only represent a limited segment of the market?
cascom··on New York City bans natural gas in new buildings
What’s so stupid is this isn’t the problem - the amount of fuel oil heated buildings in Manhattan is astonishing
cascom··on Canada's public health agency admits it tracked mobile devices during lockdown
But some advertiser can’t put you in prison
cascom··on Canada's public health agency admits it tracked mobile devices during lockdown
First of all, the reason people view the government using the data as different is that the government has coercive powers (and a monopoly on Violence) that other actors don’t.

Secondly, the government making use of an unethical or nefarious practice only serves to legitimize it, and make it harder to roll back.

Lastly, if everything was above board, why be forthright about the use the employment of such data sets?

cascom··on Google's removed all mentions of an Intercept investigation from Search
Fun with statistics…my gut tells me that if we looked at all fatalities on road miles driven basis, I’m not sure these statistics would look so impressive how much of that number is due to people wearing seatbelts, airbags/safer cars?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transportation_safety_in_the...

cascom··on Learn accounting for free
my two cents - bookkeeping (the act of doing all the transactions that result in financial statements) is quite boring, but at the end of the day the purpose of accounting is to provide information around the financial condition and results of the business, which it turn is and should be used to make decisions around the future of the business.

Accounting (in its various forms (financial, cost, mgmt, tax)) should help you answer questions like: what is our most profitable product? how much does it cost to make that product? was that acquisition/investment successful? sales are going up and net income is positive, why don't we have any cash?

But when you get under the hood, there is a lot of subjectivity around how to make accruals, allocate revenue and expenses, or capitalization policies.

Furthermore, many people in different organizations are incented on financial metrics (sales, EBITDA, EPS, equity value, etc) and as such have are keenly focused on gamesmanship around the calculation of those numbers.

cascom··on Learn accounting for free
haha, few things from my experience:

1)its terrifying how many people in c-suite roles (including purported CFOs and CEOs), and commercial/sales/product development roles don't actually understand accounting and finance basics.

2) the number of bookkeepers that pretend to be real accountants, but really they are just power users of a given accounting system

3) the massive miscommunication that takes place when two people that don't know what they are talking about try to tell the other what to do.

cascom··on To reduce student suicides by hanging to fans, institute in India removes fans
Isn’t this just a question of ease of substitution? If it’s a trivial to substitute hang yourself from x vs y or substitute Hanging for handful of pills - is the marginal benefit really there? I suspect not, but I do think from an administrators standpoint this has the effect of a) looking like they are doing something, b) pushing [embarrasing] suicides off campus/out of sight.
cascom··on U.S. State Department phones hacked with Israeli company spyware
But it’s only one or two steps removed = Israeli company, acting with the approval and protection of the Israeli state, enabled and facilitated spying on the US by a third party.
cascom··on U.S. satellites are being attacked every day according to Space Force general
Seems like there is a difference between passive spying (say monitoring radio transmissions from international waters or taking pictures from space) vs active spying (conducting intelligence operations on foreign soil or hacking a network)
cascom··on Ask HN: How do you find funds to invest in?
Define large risk.
cascom··on “Losses caused by or resulting from a Cyber Incident are not covered”
This looks like it’s in reference to some credit card? Why would a credit card offer comprehensive cyber insurance?

Side note: I have a homeowners insurance policy through Chubb that actually has very comprehensive cyber coverage.

cascom··on The Billionaire Tax: The Worst Tax Idea Ever?
A couple of thoughts:

1) I think that the redistributionist view of taxation is still quite controversial (at least in the US)

2) I think redistribution via taxation is exceedingly unpopular if you are paying for it (I.e. people are all for other people paying more, but not themselves)

3) while marginal tax rates were higher previously, a) the highest marginal tax brackets were as high as $100m in today’s dollars, and 2) effective tax rates were not massively different (can’t find a source here, but recall seeing data on this) through avoidance/deductions etc. such that tax collected per dollar of income actually hasn’t changed much.

cascom··on Paintmakers are running out of the color blue
Except that when companies do this, and then ask to be rewarded for making that investment, they are lambasted for price gouging or profiteering…just ask any hardware store that has sat on a pile of snow shovels through the summer in order to capture a premium price when a blizzard is approaching…
cascom··on Banks, gangsters and the strange resurgence of cash
I don’t know how you write an article on this subject and don’t mention this. Argentina, Venezuela, etc. USD/EUR cash is how people save/avoid inflation.

Plus USD is the official (?) currency in Panama, and de facto currency in half the Caribbean.

Not to mention the western governments have been shipping cash by the plane load into conflict zones to pay off war lords and other leaders

cascom··on Financial Secrecy Index
It depends on what tax you’re theoretically trying to avoid (Your definitely not avoiding property taxes). if you don’t pay tax on the rental income, or capital gains your breaking the law, the question is if the auditors show up, are you really going to be safe? And the answer is possibly? But it would take a ton of work and breaking a whole bunch of other laws along the way (offshore banking relationships in non-cooperation countries, mail drops, repatriation of assets problems etc) , and at the end of the day the government will just put a lien on the house until they’ve gotten what they want.
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