Social scientist, hack the occasional R package.
My substack: https://wyclif.substack.com.
I wrote a book: https://www.wyclifsdust.com.
davidhughjones at gmail
Do you think it would be worth writing the landing page yourself? The concepts seem interesting but it's painful to wade through stuff like "One memory model: stacks, and scope exit is the free".
I'm sorry, I've read about thirty paragraphs of this, and I still would like to know: what does Raven do? Also btw, I don't know what Bottles is, or Eagle, or a PE file. Maybe this is just for a very specialized target audience, and if so, my bad.
The US and China are not the same country and do not do the exact same stuff. To take some easy examples, the US government never imposed forced abortions on large numbers of women, nor has it invaded its neighbours (in the past century at least), nor has it starved many of its own citizens due to misguided economic policies, nor does it regularly and systematically violate habeas corpus (though perhaps some ICE policies might come close), nor does it censor its citizens.
> I expect it to cost somewhere in the neighborhood of an experienced dev because that’s the alternative.
That's only true if a single company owns the frontier, otherwise the alternative is "a rival frontier model" and the cost will be the marginal price of the compute + amortized training costs.
>For example, “You can’t beat the market, dollar-cost average into index funds!” is the kind of viral story that will earn you nods of approval from millennials and upvotes on Reddit.
>Pattern matching, on the other hand, can drive you to make moves like an advanced chess engine. Moves that others find alien and incomprehensible.
Sure. Index funds is a viral story which has a lot of rigorous data behind it. As for the advanced chess engine of intuition... ever heard of Fooled By Randomness?
So it seems worth vibecoding a survival analysis for bugs introduced. But not quite a survival analysis because we don't even know the bugs exist until the event of their discovery.... Is there a publicly available dataset for this, with a URL?
The UK has the opposite problem. You don't get overtreated, but you may get undertreated - sometimes it is impossible to find a NHS dentist at all. Indeed, I went private because I literally couldn't find one after my old one sacked me. The private dentists probably have the same problems as described here. But I luckily found a small, nice, ethical one who was recommended by people in town I trust. Literal word-of-mouth still beats any algorithm I know for this kind of question.
If you chose at random and it guessed at random, it would get 32% about 1% of the time. So worse than chance, but not surprising that it happened to at least one HN reader?
Unions, like other monopolies, are good for their members and bad for everyone else. Whether unionizing is unselfish or not is debatable, but it makes the world worse.
That's fine, because you don't need infinite compute to run or train current models. If the "big boys" are buying more compute that's because they hope to provide a better service.
I misspoke when I said "zero". I should have said "down to marginal cost". It's fine for AI to be priced at the cost of its compute! That's the efficient outcome.
What reason do you expect to provide a moat for a monopoly? Training on existing customer interactions? That might get you an oligopoly, but there are already two serious competitors in the US alone and several potential Chinese rivals.
Were these problems just beautiful but useless? If so why did we pay people to work on them? My impression was that many mathematicians receive large research grants.
I sympathise with a lot of the details of mathematicians' complaints, but at the same time I still see very few people stepping beyond "what will this do for the discipline" to think "what will this do for social welfare". It's like hearing scribes complaining about the printing press. Yes, I'm sorry that you won't get paid to do beautiful illuminated manuscripts, but I think the benefit to society outweighs that, and if it didn't, then why were you being paid to do the illumination in the first place?
It's not that there aren't possible arguments here (AI is destroying the basis for further progress). But this perspective is hardly even being addressed by most of the reactions.
Countries that were not under an empire also had famines and other disasters (China had a civil war with 50 million killed, IIRC) as well as endemic practices like slavery.